Israel launches series of night airstrikes on southern Lebanon despite fragile ceasefire
Israeli aircraft struck several targets in the towns of Jibchit, Haboush, and Khirbet Silim. The previous day, at least 19 people, including women and children, were killed in strikes on southern Lebanon.
The bombing of southern Lebanon on the night of May 21 is not a violation of the ceasefire but its complete simulation. While diplomats in Washington coordinate dates for the next rounds of negotiations, the IDF methodically destroys infrastructure south of the Litani River. But financial markets are making a fatal mistake: they assess Lebanon as an isolated hotbed of instability, overlooking the systemic link between this conflict and the Iranian track and the fate of the Strait of Hormuz. It is this link that turns a local tragedy into a catalyst for a global energy crisis.
The essence: what is really happening
Since May 17, when the ceasefire was extended for another 45 days, Israel has struck more than 30 targets in southern Lebanon in just one day. Over the weekend, at least 29 people, including women and children, were killed, and dozens were wounded. The total number of victims since the escalation began on March 2 has reached 3,073 dead and 9,362 wounded. Over 1.2 million people have been displaced.
But the essence is not in the casualty figures. The essence is that Israel is deliberately forcing escalation on the Lebanese front right now, when negotiations with Iran have reached a dead end. Tel Aviv's logic is simple: if Trump hesitates and does not decide to deliver a decisive blow to Iran, then Israel creates a second front of such intensity that it will force Hezbollah into a full-scale response, which in turn will drag Iran into the conflict — and the US will no longer be able to stay on the sidelines.
This is a classic strategy of escalation to compel an ally to act. Israeli military officials claim to have killed 220 Hezbollah fighters in the past week and struck 440 targets, but the real goal is not to disarm the group but to provoke it into a response that will make a diplomatic settlement with Iran impossible.
Timeline and context
The conflict on the Lebanon-Israel border is developing in parallel with the Iran-US track:
- March 2: Hezbollah resumes rocket attacks on Israel amid the escalating situation around Iran.
- April 17: The first ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon is brokered by the US.
- May 15–16: Talks in Washington, agreement to extend the ceasefire for 45 days.
- May 17–20: Despite the extension, Israel launches intense strikes on southern Lebanon; Hezbollah responds with strikes on Israeli positions.
- May 20: Night bombings of Jibchit, Haboush, and Khirbet Silim; 29 killed.
In parallel, on May 20, the IRGC issued a statement about its readiness to spread the war beyond the region. These two events — the strikes on Lebanon and Iran's threat — are not merely coincidental in time. They are links in the same chain of escalation that is no longer regulated by diplomatic mechanisms.
Who wins and who loses
Winners: The Israeli military lobby, which gets a blank check to clear southern Lebanon under the pretext of "self-defense." The IDF is actively demolishing buildings between border villages, creating a "security zone" that de facto annexes Lebanese territory.
Winners: Speculators in the energy market. Each round of Lebanese escalation adds $2–3 to the risk premium in oil prices, as the market understands that an active phase of the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah makes negotiations with Iran futile, meaning the Strait of Hormuz will remain blocked longer.
Losers: The population of Lebanon. The country is losing about 7% of its GDP due to the conflict. Inflation, a 90% devaluation of the Lebanese pound, and the loss of the tourism sector create a humanitarian catastrophe. Lebanon's Economy Minister Amer Bisat called the situation an "existential shock."
Losers: American diplomacy. The ceasefire extension agreement, which was touted as a success of Washington's mediation efforts, turned into a fiction within 48 hours. Trust in the US as a mediator is declining, complicating the Iranian track of negotiations.
What the media are not saying
The media report on strikes and casualties but conceal the financial mechanism of Israeli escalation. On March 30, the Israeli Ministry of Finance published a forecast according to which, in the worst-case scenario (war with Iran until the end of April and an operation in Lebanon until July), GDP growth in 2026 would be only 3.3%. But reality turned out to be worse than any scenario: the war dragged on, Lebanon remains a hot spot, and Israel's economy, according to unofficial estimates, is already losing at least $250 million daily.
Why does Israel continue escalation despite economic logic? Because the bet is not on short-term economics but on a geopolitical outcome: forcing the US into a full-scale war with Iran. In Tel Aviv, they calculated that if Hezbollah is drawn into the conflict at full capacity, Iran will be forced to intervene directly, and Trump will abandon diplomacy. It is this "second goal" of Israeli bombings that the media are concealing.
Another non-obvious aspect: undermining Lebanese statehood as part of the strategy. Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam stated that weapons should be under the exclusive control of the state, but his government controls neither Hezbollah nor Israeli bombings. Discrediting the Lebanese government weakens the only potential partner for a diplomatic settlement and clears the way for a long-term Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon.
Forecast: next 30 days and 90 days
30 days. Israel will continue the "scorched earth" tactic in southern Lebanon under the cover of the extended ceasefire. Hezbollah will step up retaliatory strikes. The probability of a full-scale resumption of the conflict (beyond the current pinpoint strikes) is 55–60%. Brent crude will stay above $108 per barrel as the market realizes the link between Lebanese escalation and the deadlock in Iranian negotiations. The next round of talks on June 2–3 in Washington will fail unless progress is made on Iran by then.
90 days. By the end of August, the conflict in southern Lebanon will either escalate into a full-scale war (40% probability) or be frozen through a forceful separation of the parties under US pressure. But even in the latter case, Lebanon's economy will be set back a decade. In the scenario of continued hostilities, Israel's economy will lose up to 3.5% of annual GDP. Brent crude will test the $115 mark in a negative scenario or correct to $95–98 if a deal with Iran is reached and de-escalation in Lebanon occurs.
Editorial forecast
Asset: Brent crude oil (next month futures)
Direction: Up in the next 24–72 hours. Escalation in Lebanon, coinciding with the IRGC threat of a global spread of war, creates a "perfect storm" for oil prices. The market will begin to price in a protracted crisis in the Strait of Hormuz.
Key levels: Nearest resistance — $112 per barrel; if broken, target $115–116. Support — $108 (the level from which the rise began after Trump's statement about suspending a strike on Iran).
Confidence level: High. The combination of Lebanese and Iranian factors creates a sustained upward momentum that cannot be offset even by Trump's verbal interventions about "progress in negotiations."
Main risk: A sudden statement by Trump about a breakthrough in negotiations with Iran and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. In this scenario, oil would lose 7–10% in one session, as happened on May 20.
Editorial opinion, not investment advice.
— Editorial Team
