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USD/CNH (офшорный юань) 2026-06-29 · 2026-06-29
USD/CNH is expected to trade in a narrow range of 6.80-6.8260 in the next 30 days, as the PBOC deliberately holds resistance, preventing a collapse but not hindering weakening to support exports. The market will test the level of 6.8260, but regulatory control and fixing will not allow the rate to break the ceiling without a sharp deterioration in data. The main risk is an unexpected easing of fixing or aggressive Fed tightening, which would shift the range upward.
EUR/USD 2026-06-29 · 2026-06-29
Pressure on EUR/USD downward to 1.06 is expected amid deepening industrial recession in Eurozone and weakness of German economy. ECB cannot ease policy due to inflation, creating risk of further pair decline. Main risk — unexpected ECB statement on readiness for rate cut dialogue, which could crash euro to 1.05.
US Dollar Index 2026-06-29 · 2026-06-29
The Fed's hawkish pivot and abandonment of clear forward guidance create structural demand for the dollar as a high-yield 'safe haven'. The widening yield spread of 10-year Treasuries (4.0-4.5%) and maintaining the rate at 3.5-3.75% until year-end will ensure a 2-4% strengthening of DXY in the coming month. The main risk is an unexpected slowdown in the labor market, which could force the Fed to soften its rhetoric.
Italian Government Bonds 2026-06-29 · 2026-06-29
The ECB June bulletin signals a further widening of the spread between Italian BTPs and German Bunds due to stagflation, rate hikes, and debt servicing risks. Markets are pricing in continued tight policy, which will increase pressure on peripheral eurozone bonds in the next 30 days. The main risk is an unexpected easing of ECB rhetoric or de-escalation of the Middle East conflict.
EUR/USD 2026-06-29 · 2026-06-29
Schnabel's statement on the need for further rate hikes regardless of oil prices creates a strong upward momentum for the euro. EUR/USD is expected to strengthen by 1-3% within a month as markets reassess the ECB's hawkish stance amid persistent inflationary pressure. The main risk is an unexpected slowdown in inflation or deterioration of eurozone economic data, which could limit the rise.
Euro/US Dollar 2026-06-29 · 2026-06-29
The ECB rate hike of 25 bps turned out to be a 'dovish hawk' and is not accompanied by a clear signal of further tightening, which will disappoint markets. Against the backdrop of an expected Fed pause and continued high rates in the US, the dollar may strengthen against the euro. The main risk is the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz, which would support the euro by lowering energy prices.
S&P 500 2026-06-22 · 2026-06-22
The release of the May PCE index on June 25 will likely exceed forecasts, strengthening hawkish expectations and triggering a decline in the S&P 500. The key level is 7510: a break below opens the path to 7465 and lower. The main risk is unexpectedly low inflation, which could cause a rally, but the Fed's firm stance will limit any rebound.
Brent Crude Oil 2026-06-22 · 2026-06-22
A moderate decline in Brent to $76-78 is expected over 30 days amid profit-taking and market realization of oversupply. Correction risk is amplified by overflowing storage in China and planned OPEC+ quota increases. The main risk is escalation of military action in the region, which could push prices above $85.
Brent Crude Oil 2026-06-22 · 2026-06-22
The US-Iran agreement opens the way for the return of up to 1.5 million barrels of Iranian oil per day to the global market, creating a significant supply surplus. Brent has already fallen to $78.89, and analysts expect further decline to $76-77 in the short term. The main risk is possible escalation of conflict with Israel, which could reverse the trend upward to $83+.
EUR/USD 2026-06-22 · 2026-06-22
Further weakening of EUR/USD is expected in the next 30 days, as the market views the ECB rate hike as a forced response to an external shock rather than a sign of a strong economy. The policy divergence between the Fed (more hawkish) and the ECB (symbolic move) amid a eurozone recession creates sustained pressure on the pair. The main risk is unexpectedly hawkish ECB rhetoric, which could trigger a short-term rebound.

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