Kuwait Claims to Have Prevented Iranian IRGC Sabotage on Bubiyan Island
Kuwaiti authorities arrested four officers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps who attempted to infiltrate Bubiyan Island. Tehran called the allegations "baseless," attributing the incident to a navigation system failure.
The incident on Bubiyan Island is not just the detention of a few military personnel. It is an event that tears off the masks of regional politics, exposing an extremely dangerous transition from the quantitative accumulation of mutual threats to a new quality—direct sabotage raids on the territory of Gulf states. Kuwait's announcement of the capture of IRGC officers is a moment of truth that reveals the failure of diplomacy and the beginning of an underground struggle for the region's main non-military prize.
The Essence: What Is Really Happening
At first glance, this is a standard interception operation. However, the details indicate that it was not a spontaneous foray and certainly not a "navigation system failure," as Tehran claims. The four detainees are not ordinary "guards" but high-ranking career officers: two captains 2nd rank, one captain 3rd rank, and one senior lieutenant. Routine maritime patrols are not conducted exclusively by senior officers on a rented fishing vessel.
The essence of what is happening lies in strategic positioning. Bubiyan is not just Kuwait's largest island; it is the northern "castle" of the Persian Gulf, located 80 km from the Iranian coast. It is here that Kuwait, with Chinese support, is building the mega-port Mubarak al-Kabeer, a key hub of the Belt and Road Initiative. Control over this hub, amid the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, means control over alternative logistics routes. Iran, apparently, decided to conduct reconnaissance by force or even establish a foothold to disrupt this project, which reduces continental Asia's dependence on the "Hormuz factor."
Timeline and Context
Let's rewind the tape. Since February 28, the region has been living in a state of full-scale hybrid warfare. Iran, responding to US and Israeli strikes, has been methodically attacking not only Israel but also America's Gulf allies since March. On March 30, an attack on a Kuwaiti water desalination and power plant killed an Indian citizen. In April, the Mina al-Ahmadi oil refinery came under attack. By May, Kuwait, which relies on desalinated water for over 90% of its needs, was already under siege.
The infiltration attempt occurred on May 1, but information about it was only made public almost two weeks later, from May 11 to 12. Why the delay? During this time, Kuwait was purging its internal "fifth column": in April, 24 people were arrested on charges of financing terrorism, including several former parliament deputies. Kuwaiti security forces needed time to determine whether the detained IRGC officers were linked to an internal network or if this was an external autonomous operation. Releasing the data only after obtaining "confessions" was intended to provide a legal basis for the inevitable sharp reaction.
Who Wins and Who Loses
Kuwait—tactical winner with high risks. The emirate showed that even a small country can defend its sovereignty. Kuwait secured immediate support from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Bahrain, which condemned Iran's actions as a "flagrant violation." This strengthened the unity of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Moreover, the arrest of IRGC officers gave Kuwait a trump card in any future negotiations with Tehran and Washington.
Iran loses diplomatically but increases pressure. The high-profile failure of the officers' detention deprives Tehran of the ability to continue feigning non-involvement in attacks on neighbors. The "navigation failure" version sounds outright mocking when the detainees were found armed and engaged in a firefight, wounding a Kuwaiti soldier. However, the very fact of such a daring foray sends a message: even in the northern Gulf, far from Hormuz, no coastline is safe.
China and the Belt and Road Initiative—the main hidden losers. The strike was aimed not just at Kuwaiti territory but at the Mubarak al-Kabeer port. If investors consider the region too hot for long-term infrastructure investments, Beijing will lose billions of USD and a key foothold in the region. It is no coincidence that the news emerged just before Trump's visit to Beijing for a meeting with Xi Jinping.
What the Media Are Not Saying
Insider view: Operation Martyr Soleimani and the bargaining over China. Most Western analysts overlook that this sabotage is not specifically revenge against Kuwait but an element of complex Iran-China bargaining. Insiders on the intelligence track note that in early 2026, Iran requested an emergency loan of $45 billion from China to stabilize its economy amid the war. Beijing, fearing a complete collapse of its ally, provided the money but demanded the long-term lease (99 years) of two islands in the Persian Gulf—Abu Musa and part of Qeshm's infrastructure.
Iran refused, considering it humiliating. The raid on Bubiyan became an asymmetric response: "You try to squeeze our islands, and we will disrupt the operation of your mega-port." Threatening Chinese investments of over $10 billion in the port zone is Tehran's attempt to force Beijing to reconsider its overly selfish policy and start pressuring the US. This is not just a proxy war; it is blackmail of an ally.
Forecast: The Next 30 Days and 90 Days
Next 30 days (by mid-June 2026). Kuwait will hold a show trial of the detainees, sentencing them to long terms but refraining from physical liquidation, using them as "live goods" for future exchange. Iran will make another attempt to attack Kuwait's energy infrastructure using drones, as in previous months, to show that land arrests do not stop it. The US, in turn, will impose additional sanctions on specific IRGC naval units but will not risk direct military escalation due to the threat of disrupting Trump's talks with China.
Next 90 days (by mid-August 2026). If the diplomatic track completely collapses and Trump returns to a "maximum pressure" tactic with elements of bombing, Bubiyan Island and Mubarak port will become priority targets for Iranian medium-range missiles. Iran will try to physically destroy the infrastructure that makes bypassing Hormuz possible. However, by then, advanced Patriot air defense systems under US command, which Kuwait will urgently request from the US, will already be deployed on the island. In effect, Bubiyan will become the front line of defense for the northern Gulf. In this scenario, Brent oil prices will permanently stay above $125 per barrel, and shipping insurance rates in the region will rise to levels making maritime trade through the Persian Gulf nearly unprofitable.
— Editorial Team
