PSB Bank Recommends Buying Financial Sector and Transneft Shares
Ahead of the dividend season, analysts highlight Sberbank and VTB securities, as well as Transneft shares, which look strong from a fundamental and dividend perspective.
PSB's recommendation: why 'defensive' shares of Sberbank and Transneft could be a trap in a falling market
The Gist: What's Really Happening
When a team of analysts led by Bogdan Zvarich issues a recommendation to buy the financial sector and Transneft amid an index stuck in the 2600-2700 range, it's not just a standard review. It's an attempt by a major bank serving a significant portion of defense and state orders to maintain market manageability during extreme uncertainty. The main message—'buy on dividends'—actually masks liquidity risk. The market is narrowing: trading volumes have fallen to lows, institutions are taking profits, and the only way to keep quotes from sliding further is to lure retail investors into 'second-tier' stocks and make them believe in 'dividend protection.'
Timeline and Context
The tactical picture is as follows. On May 6, the MOEX index consolidated near 2610 points, showing almost no dynamics amid low trading activity. It was at this moment that PSB analysts announced the potential for a market recovery and highlighted specific securities. The logic is simple: in the absence of external drivers and with the dividend season approaching, investors' eyes should turn to issuers promising double-digit payouts.
For Sberbank, a payout of 37.76 rubles per share is forecast (yield around 12%), and in 2026 dividends could exceed 40 rubles. For VTB, expectations are even more ambitious: payouts of 13.6–15.5 rubles per share with a yield of 15-17%. The main favorite is Transneft with projected dividends of 201 rubles per share and a yield of about 15%. The company looks 'fundamentally strong' with negative debt load and tariff-protected business. The bet is that private investors, frightened by volatility, will shift into these 'safe havens' and use their capital to plug the hole left by the flight of non-residents.
Who Wins and Who Loses
PSB itself and affiliated structures win. The bank serves a huge pool of corporate clients interested in maintaining the capitalization of blue chips. The higher the demand for Sberbank and VTB shares before dividend cut-off dates, the easier it is for large holders to exit positions without a collapse in quotes. This is a classic 'recommendation as liquidity' story.
Transneft wins. The company indeed has a unique safety cushion. For the first nine months of 2025, revenue amounted to 1.08 trillion rubles, and interest income amid high rates compensates for the increase in profit tax to 40%. Oil transportation tariffs are indexed, and the business is almost independent of the USD exchange rate. However, here lies the main trap: shares have barely grown since the beginning of the year, unlike the broad market. This means investors hold the stock not for capital growth, but solely for dividends.
'Late' minority shareholders of VTB lose. PSB analysts paint a rosy yield of 15-17%, omitting the key issue—capital adequacy. The bank is teetering on the edge of the regulatory requirement, and the history of repeated additional issuances or dividend cancellations for capital reasons repeats with alarming frequency. If the Central Bank tightens requirements, instead of dividends, investors will get another dilution of their stake.
An unexpected loser—retail depositors. When PSB analysts so strongly promote dividend stocks, it is essentially a call to compete with the banking sector for funding. Why would PSB lure money from its own depositories into stocks? The answer is cynical but simple: risk sharing. Money in brokerage accounts is not insured by the state, and transferring client liabilities to the securities market relieves the bank's balance sheet.
What the Media Isn't Saying
First insight: the recommendation to buy stocks is a mirror of the structural liquidity crisis. The power vertical is building a bridge between retail investors and state-owned companies not out of abundance. External capital markets are closed, the budget is running a deficit, and the banking system is overleveraged. In these conditions, the only source of long-term money is the population. Sberbank, VTB, and Transneft are not just businesses; they are state infrastructure. PSB's call to buy their securities is an attempt to replace government investment with private savings.
Second insight: the assessment of Transneft's dividend yield is absolutely fair but cynical. Analysts honestly talk about 14-15% yield. However, they omit that a significant part of the 'dividend mass' is formed due to the high key rate and interest income from a huge cash cushion, not from operating activities. As soon as the Central Bank eases, Transneft's interest income will fall, and that 15% will turn into 8-9%. By buying shares now, an investor is betting that the high rate will persist for a long time, but expects profit from rate cuts—a classic internal conflict.
Third insight: PSB's recommendation has nothing to do with belief in the growth of Sberbank or VTB's business. It's a purely technical story around the dividend gap. Analysts bet that before the cut-off date, shares will rise faster than the market, and after the dividend cut-off, the price will fall by roughly the dividend amount. If the company's profit does not grow radically, the shares will simply return to their original positions, and the investor will get an illusion of earnings, paying tax on 'income.' The real yield of such an operation for a long-term holder tends to zero, while the broker's income in the form of commissions tends to maximum.
Forecast: Next 30 Days and 90 Days
30 days (May-June 2026):
A 'dividend rally' will begin in a narrow corridor on the market. Until the record dates (late June to early July), Sberbank and Transneft shares will be supported by demand from retail investors who believed in the recommendations. The MOEX index will likely remain in the 2600-2700 range, as Bogdan Zvarich forecasts. The ruble will remain strong, continuing to pressure exporters, forcing capital to flow into 'domestic' stories. The main risk for investors in this period is to believe in the sustainability of growth and start building leveraged positions in Transneft, which is already overbought.
90 days (until August 2026):
Immediately after the dividend cut-offs, the market will face a painful reality check. VTB shares may come under pressure due to concerns about capital adequacy and Central Bank regulations. Sberbank, after closing the register, will become unattractive to speculators, and its quotes will slide 10-12% down from late June levels. But the most interesting moment will come with Transneft. After paying 201 rubles per share, the stock will lose its investment appeal for several months. The investor will be left alone with an overvalued stock whose fundamental value is 20-30% below current levels.
By August, when the effect of the 'dividend season' fades and understanding of structural problems in export revenues sets in, the MOEX index will likely be below 2550 points. Those who listened to PSB analysts and bought at the peak will be sitting in the red, waiting for the next dividend season. The recommendation to buy 'defensive assets' in May 2026 is not a profit strategy but a scheme to shift the outgoing year's risks onto retail investors. And when the market realizes this, no Transneft will save the portfolio from losses.
— Editorial Team
