Iran Sets Five Conditions for Second Round of Talks with the US
Tehran will not return to the negotiating table without receiving 'minimum confidence-building guarantees' from the American side, despite President Pezeshkian's earlier stated readiness for dialogue.
Tehran's diplomatic maneuver, announced through the Fars agency, is not just a wish list but a tough bid to reshape the entire security architecture in the Persian Gulf. The presentation of 'five minimum confidence-building guarantees' establishes a new status quo: Iran is no longer the losing party begging for peace, but the victor dictating terms of surrender.
What's Really Happening
Iran is deliberately raising the bar to a level that is obviously unacceptable to Washington. The Trump administration has already called this approach 'completely unacceptable.' The true goal is not to reach an agreement but to blame the US for the breakdown of talks and the continuation of the blockade. The calculation is that the economic pain from a blocked Strait of Hormuz will force Asian consumers to pressure the White House into humiliating concessions.
While President Masoud Pezeshkian publicly speaks of 'protecting rights and firmly defending national interests,' Tehran is playing a subtle game. The formula is simple: we agree to talks, but first you stop the war, return our assets, and recognize the Strait of Hormuz as ours. This is not a negotiating position but a demand to admit defeat.
Timeline and Context
Let's rewind. Since February 28, 2026, the US and Israel have been conducting a military campaign against Iran's nuclear infrastructure. The response was chaos in the Strait of Hormuz. Then, on April 7, Trump announced a temporary ceasefire, which spectacularly failed, as full-fledged talks in Islamabad on April 11 ended in nothing.
Now, on May 12, Iran is going on the diplomatic offensive. It rejects the US 14-point plan as 'completely one-sided, designed to serve Washington's interests' and issues a counter-ultimatum. From Tehran's perspective, the logic is ironclad: while the US Navy blocks our ports, effectively continuing hostilities, how can there be any talks?
Who Wins and Who Loses
At this stage, only Iran is winning. It has rallied around its nuclear program, secured political support from Moscow and Beijing, and most importantly, created a reality where its promise of 'safe passage for ships' determines global oil prices. China also benefits: it buys cheap oil while bypassing sanctions.
Among the losers is Trump's US. The bet on quick coercion to peace has failed. Donald Trump admitted that the ceasefire regime is 'hanging by a thread,' and Energy Secretary Chris Wright directly stated that a peaceful resolution to the nuclear issue is no longer in sight. Europe and Japan suffer from skyrocketing energy prices. And finally, the people of Iran: presenting obviously unattainable conditions means prolonging war, sanctions, and humanitarian catastrophe.
What the Media Isn't Saying
Insider view: the 'sovereignty trap' and the collapse of the Chinese deal. Western media focus on the nuclear dossier and general phrases about sanctions, but miss the legal bomb hidden in the fifth point. The demand to 'recognize Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz' is an absolute death knell for US attempts to send military convoys.
This point was not in the 2015 JCPOA; now it's a precondition. If talks fail over this point now, international law will remain in a gray zone, meaning Lloyd's will never reduce war insurance premiums to peacetime levels. Cargo flow will not resume even if the guns fall silent. In essence, Tehran is trapping Washington: either you legitimize the ayatollahs' control over the world's oil artery and lose face, or you take responsibility for Asia's economic collapse.
The second point is Pakistan's position. Islamabad, as a mediator, tried to organize the signing of a peace memorandum last week. The failure to meet the deadline means Pakistan has lost its leverage over Tehran.
Forecast: Next 30 Days and 90 Days
Next 30 days (by mid-June 2026).
Talks will finally freeze. Trump, preparing for a meeting with Xi Jinping in Beijing, will try to pressure China into forcing Iran to soften its position. However, Beijing will not do so in exchange for oil discounts. The US will face a painful choice: either start sinking Iranian boats, risking direct confrontation and sending Brent well above $100, or silently recognize Tehran's right to inspect ships. The barrel price will incorporate a premium for complete uncertainty, heading toward $110–$115.
Next 90 days (by mid-August 2026).
By August, the pressure of hunger on the Global South will become unbearable. The UN already warns that without fertilizers from the Persian Gulf, a hunger crisis will affect tens of millions of people. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, whose budgets suffer from the inability to export oil via the Red Sea, will begin behind-the-scenes demands for the US to freeze the fifth point—at any cost. The main forecast: by the end of summer, we will see a secret deal: Iran and the US will agree to 'ignore' the legal status of the strait, exchanging this for the lifting of some sanctions and the unfreezing of at least $25 billion in Iranian assets. This will allow oil to flow to the world but will finally formalize Tehran's naval hegemony in the region.
— Editorial Team
