Bank Reserves at Central Bank of Russia Rise to 6.6 Trillion Rubles
The volume of credit institutions' funds in correspondent accounts with the Bank of Russia increased, reaching 6,596.9 billion rubles at the start of the trading day. Balances on deposit accounts also rose, hitting 3,495.98 billion rubles.
Introduction
On April 29, 2026, the Bank of Russia published fresh data reflecting the liquidity position of the country's banking sector. According to the regulator's morning report, the balances of credit institutions in correspondent accounts with the Central Bank of the Russian Federation rose to 6,596.9 billion rubles, increasing by more than 825 billion rubles over the day. At the same time, balances on banks' deposit accounts with the Central Bank reached 3,495.98 billion rubles, also showing a slight increase compared to the previous day.
At first glance, the sharp increase in funds on correspondent accounts may seem to indicate an excess of free liquidity among banks. However, a professional look at these figures in the context of the broader monetary policy picture reveals a different reality. These data are not just statistics; they reflect complex processes at the intersection of several factors: fiscal policy, Ministry of Finance operations, Bank of Russia monetary policy, and the projected structural liquidity deficit.
Event Details and Timeline
Key figures as of April 29, 2026:
| Indicator | Value on April 29 | Value on April 28 | Change |
|-----------|-------------------|-------------------|--------|
| Balances on correspondent accounts (RF) | 6,596.9 billion rubles | 5,771.9 billion rubles | +825 billion rubles |
| Balances on correspondent accounts (Moscow region) | 6,416.8 billion rubles | 5,583.1 billion rubles | +833.7 billion rubles |
| Balances on deposit accounts with the Central Bank | 3,495.98 billion rubles | 3,440.46 billion rubles | +55.5 billion rubles |
The sharp jump in correspondent account balances by more than 825 billion rubles in one day is an event worthy of close attention. To understand its causes, it is necessary to consider the factors shaping banking sector liquidity, which the Bank of Russia regularly publishes.
Fiscal channel as the main source of inflow
The key factor explaining such a significant increase in funds on correspondent accounts is operations through the fiscal channel. As of the end of April 2026, there was a substantial change in the balances of expanded government accounts at the Bank of Russia. When the Ministry of Finance and the Federal Treasury place budget funds on deposits with banks or direct them to pay for government contracts, money leaves Treasury accounts at the Central Bank and enters the correspondent accounts of credit institutions.
It is this process that likely occurred ahead of April 29. Large budget payments, including expenditures on financing government programs, procurement, and social obligations, may have been made during this period, leading to a temporary "flood" of liquidity into the banking sector.
Deposit auctions and liquidity management
Simultaneously with the growth in correspondent account balances, the Bank of Russia recorded an increase in funds placed by banks on deposit accounts with the Central Bank, reaching 3,495.98 billion rubles. This indicates that banks preferred not to deploy the incoming liquidity into lending to the economy or the interbank market but rather to "sterilize" it by returning it to the Central Bank at a rate close to the key rate.
Structural deficit: a forecast coming true
To understand the long-term trend, it is fundamentally important that what is happening today fully aligns with the Bank of Russia's forecasts made back in late 2025. At that time, the regulator warned the market of a gradual increase in the structural liquidity deficit in 2026, estimating its magnitude in the range of 2.5-3.5 trillion rubles.
According to the Central Bank's estimates, the outflow of liquidity from the banking system will be driven by several factors:
- An increase in the volume of cash in circulation (flight from non-cash to cash)
- Growth in required reserves following the expansion of the money supply
- Mirroring operations for investing the National Welfare Fund (NWF) funds
Impact and Significance (for the world/industry/society)
For the banking sector and money market
The data from April 29 highlight a key characteristic of the current moment: liquidity in the banking system is extremely unevenly distributed. The sharp increase in funds on correspondent accounts is accompanied by their simultaneous placement on deposits with the Central Bank. This is a classic sign that some banks have excess liquidity (and prefer to earn on deposits at the Central Bank), while others may experience a deficit and are forced to attract funds on the market or from the regulator.
The Bank of Russia records a liquidity deficit in the banking sector (excluding correspondent accounts) at 1,374.5 billion rubles as of April 23, 2026. This means that credit institutions objectively need to attract funds from the regulator to maintain their operations. The positive value of the deficit (1,374.5 billion rubles) characterizes the volume of liquidity that banks need to borrow from the Central Bank.
For the Central Bank's monetary policy
The current situation confirms the correctness of the Bank of Russia's course toward gradually tightening money market conditions. As the regulator noted back in December 2025, as the deficit grows, market participants' need for liquidity and demand in the money market will increase. Under these conditions, money market rates may shift slightly above the key rate.
This means that even if the key rate remains at its current level (after a reduction to 14.5% on April 24), the actual cost of borrowing for banks in the interbank market may be higher. Such a scenario would contribute to further cooling of credit activity and the fight against inflation.
For society and the economy as a whole
For the broader economy, the growing liquidity deficit and the rising cost of interbank financing have a dual significance. On the one hand, this is a continuation of the "dear money" policy, which curbs inflation and stabilizes the ruble. On the other hand, higher funding costs for banks could lead to further tightening of lending conditions for businesses and households, potentially slowing investment activity and consumer demand.
For holders of deposits and bonds, the growing liquidity deficit indirectly supports relatively high interest rates, maintaining the attractiveness of savings instruments.
Reaction of Key Players
Bank of Russia: planned work and forecasts
The Central Bank's reaction to the current situation is planned and controlled. The regulator not only forecasted the growth of the structural deficit but also prepared the tools to manage it. Weekly deposit auctions, fine-tuning operations, and the standing overnight deposit facility all help smooth out sharp peaks in deficit and excess liquidity.
According to the Bank of Russia's forecast for the period from April 29 to May 5, 2026, the government will manage to absorb 36 billion rubles of banking liquidity. Balances of credit institutions in correspondent accounts with the Central Bank are expected to increase by another 332 billion rubles.
Ministry of Finance and Treasury
The Ministry of Finance is a key player determining liquidity dynamics through the fiscal channel. The placement of temporarily available funds on deposits with banks, auctions for placing NWF funds, and the schedule of large budget expenditures create the ebb and flow of liquidity that we observe.
Banks and asset management companies
For banks, the current situation poses the challenge of effective liquidity management amid its uneven distribution. Large banks with excess liquidity have the opportunity to earn on deposits at the Central Bank and on placing funds in the interbank market at higher rates. Banks experiencing a deficit are forced either to attract expensive interbank financing or to turn to Central Bank refinancing instruments.
Forecast and Conclusions
Short-term outlook (until the end of the week)
In the coming days, elevated balances on banks' correspondent accounts are expected to persist, especially in the Moscow region, where the bulk of liquidity is concentrated (6,416.8 billion rubles out of 6,596.9 billion rubles). Central Bank deposit auctions will likely be in demand as banks seek to place temporarily free rubles at a reliable rate.
At the same time, the effect of the Bank of Russia's forecasted liquidity change for the period April 29 to May 5 will begin to show: an absorption of 36 billion rubles and an increase in correspondent account balances by another 332 billion rubles, which, paradoxically, indicates complex multi-directional dynamics amid simultaneous absorption.
Medium-term forecast (1-3 months)
The key factor in medium-term dynamics will remain the process of replacing the structural liquidity surplus with a deficit. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation will continue to use its full arsenal of tools—from deposit auctions to repo operations—to keep money market rates near the key rate and prevent sharp spikes.
A likely scenario is that by mid-2026, the liquidity deficit will become a persistent phenomenon rather than temporary spikes. This will lead to a gradual increase in the share of Central Bank refinancing operations in banks' liabilities and heightened sensitivity of the banking sector to changes in the key rate.
Long-term outlook
In the long term, the structural liquidity deficit predicted by the Bank of Russia will deepen. By 2027, the regulator expects money market rates to be consistently somewhat above the key rate, strengthening the transmission mechanism of monetary policy.
This would mean that the Central Bank's key rate decisions will be transmitted more quickly and fully into the cost of loans for end borrowers, enhancing the effectiveness of the fight against inflation.
Conclusions
The data on balances in correspondent accounts and deposits at the Central Bank of the Russian Federation as of April 29, 2026, is not just dry statistics. It is a snapshot of a complex and dynamic process of transforming the liquidity structure of the Russian banking sector. The sharp increase in funds on correspondent accounts (+825 billion rubles in one day) reflects a temporary liquidity surplus caused by budget expenditures, while the liquidity deficit excluding correspondent accounts (about 1.37 trillion rubles) points to a long-term trend.
The Bank of Russia is fully operationally prepared for this transformation, with all necessary tools at its disposal. For market participants—banks, corporations, and investors—this means the need for more careful management of liquidity and interest rate risks in an era when the structural liquidity surplus is irrevocably becoming a thing of the past.
— Editorial Team
