Haircare on the Rise: Why Hair Care Is Outpacing Makeup in Growth
The global hair care market is projected to grow 24% by 2030, outpacing makeup and fragrances. Key drivers include the scalp health trend, biohacking, the impact of GLP-1 drugs, and emotional wellness through beauty rituals.
The Bottom Line: What's Really Happening
Haircare is outpacing makeup not because women suddenly stopped loving lipstick. A fundamental shift is underway: hair is transitioning from an aesthetic category to a medical one. Euromonitor forecasts global market growth of 24% by 2030, to £129 billion. That's more than makeup and fragrances. Drivers include scalp health, biohacking, GLP-1 drugs, and emotional wellness through rituals. But the real story isn't in the numbers—it's about who is rewriting the rules and how.
Key insight: The market is moving from "repairing" damaged hair to extending its biological lifespan. At In-Cosmetics 2026 in Paris, K18 articulated this shift directly: the hair follicle ages through the same mechanisms as skin—cellular senescence, stem cell depletion, mitochondrial stress. The goal of haircare is no longer to mask split ends but to extend the functional health span of the follicle.
Timeline and Context
February 2026. Brand Goddess Maintenance Co. launches Biotech Blowout with a molecule mimicking spider silk strength, claiming a 173% increase in hair strength. L'Oréal reports double-digit haircare growth in Q1.
March 2026. Henkel acquires Olaplex for $1.4 billion—$2.06 per share, a 55% premium to market price. Advent International fully exits. Quadrivio Group takes full control of Les Secrets de Loly. Consolidation accelerates.
April 2026. In-Cosmetics Global in Paris: 14,000 professionals, 250 new ingredients. Mibelle Biochemistry presents PhytoSpherix Hair—a plant glycogen delivering cellular fuel to the follicle. LipoTrue launches Keraduo—a fusion protein at the intersection of keratin and collagen. Reliance Retail buys Priyanka Chopra's Anomaly.
May 2026. Vichy is poised to reach €1 billion in revenue, betting on the Dercos line—capturing male consumers through the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Nexxus introduces Keraphix based on proteomics. Unilever reports high-single-digit haircare growth; Dove sees double-digit growth for Fibre Repair.
Who Wins and Who Loses
Winners:
- Biotech brands with clinical portfolios. Vichy Dercos, K18, Olaplex—those whose formulas are backed by patents. Consumers no longer believe in "moisturizing"; they demand proteomics, NAD+, senolytic peptides.
- Scalp care retailers. Ulta has already dedicated a separate shelf to scalp care. Circana reports category growth of 19% in the first half of 2025.
- Brands addressing GLP-1 effects. Typebea, Hello Klean—those converting the telogen effluvium (TE) wave into subscriptions for serums and supplements. 10–15% of GLP-1 users experience hair loss—that's millions of new customers.
- Conglomerate aggregators. Henkel through Olaplex, Unilever through K18/Dove/Sunsilk—those who own the technology, not just the packaging.
Losers:
- Traditional makeup. Lip and eye cosmetics grow slower than haircare. Consumers are reallocating budgets toward "treatment" rather than "decoration."
- Luxury salons without science. Hersheson, Aveda, and Bumble and Bumble grow modestly (ELC reported flat haircare in Q3). The problem: competitors offer biotech at lower prices.
- Manufacturers of ultra-processed "miracle products." Hair growth creams sold without clinical data lose to "evidence-based care" formulas.
- GLP-1 companies (reputationally). Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are forced to fend off panic around "Ozempic Hair," though scientific data points to temporary TE, not permanent alopecia.
What the Media Isn't Saying
1. GLP-1 panic is an artificial market with a limited lifespan.
Media screams: "Ozempic makes hair fall out in clumps!" The FDA FAERS has recorded over 1,000 complaints of alopecia. But the physiology has been known since the 1940s: rapid calorie reduction causes telogen effluvium—a temporary halt in hair growth. It's not follicle damage. It's the body's protective mechanism: in a calorie deficit, "luxury items" like thick hair are shut down. Once weight stabilizes, hair grows back. The "GLP-1 hair loss kits" market is selling a life jacket to someone who will swim to shore on their own in a few minutes. Investors entering this niche expecting perpetual growth will find the problem resolves itself in 6–12 months.
2. The industry is buying haircare cheap before the protein-based formula boom.
Henkel paid $1.4 billion for Olaplex now, not in 2024, because forward multiples for haircare are heading toward revaluation. Proteomics—proteins make up over 90% of hair structure—will become what retinoids became for skincare. In 18 months, a company with a patent on peptide hair repair will be worth twice as much.
3. In-Cosmetics 2026 quietly redefined the category "haircare" into "hair health."
No major business publication reported that the 2026 Paris exhibition effectively put an end to the old understanding of hair care. WGSN held an entire session on the GLP-1 consumer, K18 discussed cellular aging of the follicle, LipoTrue unveiled the fusion protein Keraduo mimicking the keratin-collagen bond. This isn't "just another shampoo with argan oil." It's a bid to create a new category—longevity haircare.
4. Vichy is playing the long game through sports, and it's changing consumer demographics.
Vichy is targeting €1 billion in revenue and has signed Portuguese footballer Vitinha as a Dercos ambassador. This isn't a marketing whim: the brand is preparing to capture the male audience through the 2026 World Cup. Male haircare is a segment almost no one is addressing at the dermatological cosmetics level.
Forecast: Next 30 Days and 90 Days
30 days (by June 8, 2026)
Beauty Pie opens its first physical corner in Liberty London—this will be a litmus test for demand for premium haircare outside online. Vichy ramps up Dercos promotional campaigns ahead of the World Cup. Olaplex under Henkel begins integration—expect leaks about first joint products.
90 days (by August 7, 2026)
The 2026 FIFA World Cup will become the largest-ever platform for male haircare. Vichy, Dove Men+Care, and niche players will battle for scalp care audiences. Proteomics as a category will break out of professional channels into mass market. The first major lawsuit against GLP-1 manufacturers "for hair loss" will be settled without admission of liability. Investors who backed GLP-1 hair loss startups will start booking losses: data on TE self-resolution will become too obvious. And most importantly, the line between "skin care" and "hair care" will finally disappear: by fall, the term scalpification will become standard for any beauty retailer.
— Editorial Team
