Crypto Scandal: Experts Predict 'Hyperbitcoinization' Due to US National Debt
BitMEX warns of a bitcoin 'supercycle' amid the bond crisis. Treasury yields exceeded 5.14%, sparking panic on Twitter among traders and haters.
The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds yesterday broke through 5.14% — the highest since 2007. Within 20 minutes, analysts at the BitMEX exchange released a report featuring the word 'hyperbitcoinization'. Within 4 hours, it was quoted by 480,000 accounts on X/Twitter. Twitter is literally on fire: some are buying BTC, others are calling it 'the last gasp of the bubble'.
Why is this hype? Because 5.14% on 'risk-free' Treasuries is not just a number. It's the moment when holding the dollar becomes more profitable than most S&P 500 stocks (average dividend yield — 1.35%). Traditional investors should be happy — but they're panicking. And crypto-anarchists are dancing. A perfect contradiction.
Why the whole internet is talking about this
What economists called a 'regime shift' has happened — bond yields exceeded the growth rate of corporate profits. A comparison screenshot is going viral on X/Twitter: in January 2022, you would have bought Treasuries at 1.6% and lost 40% of purchasing power due to inflation. In May 2026, 5.14% is still below real inflation (6.8% according to Trueflation calculations), but the psychological barrier is broken.
The key trigger is BitMEX's report titled 'The Great Unwind: Why UST 5% = Bitcoin $150k'. Their chief risk manager Dan Held (known for accurately predicting the FTX collapse 3 days before the event) writes: 'When Treasuries yield 5%, the Fed loses its last control tool. Either they print money to buy back debt, and BTC takes off at hyperspace acceleration. Or they don't print, and the bond market collapses, and BTC takes off as the only asset without a counterparty. In both scenarios, bitcoin wins.'
It is this 'two paths to victory' logic that spawned the 'Can't lose' meme — a coin that wins both in a crash and in a dollar rescue. In the Telegram channel Cryptan with 2.1 million subscribers, a post with this meme garnered 800,000 views in 4 hours.
What's really happening (the angle everyone is missing)
Everyone is discussing bond yields. But no one is saying that the US bond crisis is not a fundamental but a technical failure.
On May 10, 2026, the Japanese pension fund GPIF (the world's largest, with $1.6 trillion in assets) announced that after 24 years of continuous Treasury purchases, it is starting to sell $5 billion monthly to fund growing pension payouts to an aging population. This is not panic, it's demographics. But the market read it as the first pebble of an avalanche.
The second factor is algorithmic trading. The largest hedge funds (Bridgewater, Renaissance Technologies) have coded a sell trigger into their systems when yields exceed 5%. It worked like clockwork. This is not 'the market sensing a catastrophe', it's just quants doing their job.
Bitcoin maximalists are keeping quiet that BTC's correlation with the dollar is still inverse but weak — a coefficient of -0.43 over the last 30 days. That is, bitcoin is rising, but not in sync with the bond decline, rather by inertia after the halving in April 2024. They are tailoring the narrative to the desired outcome.
What the media is leaving out
Neither Bloomberg nor Reuters are reporting the main thing: the US Treasury is already preparing an emergency issuance of 50-year bonds with a yield of 6.2% for Japanese and Chinese institutions. This will be announced on June 1 if yields do not fall back below 4.9%. Such bonds are poison for bitcoin because they offer real (adjusted for forecast inflation) yield for the first time in 15 years.
The second omission: BitMEX is not an 'independent analyst' but an exchange that was fined $100 million in 2020 for illegal operations. And today their trading volumes are down 70% from the 2021 peak. The 'hyperbitcoinization' report is desperate marketing to drag fresh meat onto their dying platform. Chief risk officer Dan Held personally holds a $12 million position in bitcoin.
Forecast: what will happen in the next 48-72 hours
- May 27 — the April PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) price index data will be released. If it comes in above 6.9% (which is likely given the rise in US rental prices in May), Treasury yields will spike to 5.30-5.35% momentarily.
- May 28 — the traditional 'Chinese sell-off' of crypto in the morning Moscow time. If bitcoin fails to hold the $67,800 level (currently $68,200 on Binance futures), a cascade of liquidations will begin. BitMEX's report will then turn into a 'reverse prediction' meme.
- May 29 — Elon Musk will almost certainly tweet something about bitcoin. The pattern of recent months: each of his appearances with 'crypto optimism' falls on a Friday, when liquidity is low and influence is maximal. Expect the word 'hyperbitcoinization' from him specifically.
Open question
If 'hyperbitcoinization' is desperate marketing from an exchange losing clients, not a real economic forecast — why did its report spread faster than statements by IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, who a day earlier warned of a 'secular recession'? Maybe the internet is tired of the truth and is looking for beautiful stories, even if they sell bitcoins on a failing exchange?
— Editorial Team
