Predictions — 2026-06-14

The escalation of the conflict and the 'quiet annexation' of southern Lebanon will lead to a further collapse of Lebanon's economy: GDP will shrink by 7-10% (twice as much as in 2024), losses will reach $20 billion. The Lebanese pound will continue to depreciate due to a lack of international aid ($100 million out of $300 million requested) and the absence of a diplomatic solution. The main risk is a complete default of the financial system.

The US imposed sanctions on Iranian crypto exchanges, including the largest Nobitex, which will push Iran and other sanctioned countries to use decentralized exchanges (Uniswap, dYdX) and privacy coins (Monero, Zcash). Trading volume through these instruments is expected to grow by 20-30% in the coming weeks, as centralized platforms become vulnerable to US restrictions.

Escalation of the conflict in Gaza and expansion of Israeli military control increase the geopolitical premium for Eastern Mediterranean gas. European demand for alternatives to Russian fuel, combined with production security under IDF protection, pushes prices up. The main risk is unpredictable escalation involving Hezbollah, threatening infrastructure.

Unprecedented depletion of Cushing inventories (<25 million barrels, threshold 18-19 million) and physical deficit of WTI create conditions for a short squeeze that could raise prices by $15-20 in 48 hours. Attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure and naval blockade add a geopolitical premium. The main risk is emergency intervention by the Fed or administration, which could collapse the spread.

Actual OPEC+ production has fallen by 10 million bpd due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and quotas are unfeasible. The physical market is already trading at a $15-20 premium to Brent, but futures lag behind. A sharp rise in Brent is expected in the coming weeks as institutional investors begin to account for the real deficit. Risk: a sudden opening of the strait could crash prices to $50-60.

Apple is under pressure due to its high revenue share from China (19%) amid the escalation of the trade war. China's retaliatory tariffs and the closure of opportunities for rapid de-escalation create risks for supply chains and demand. The main risk is further deterioration of relations, which could lower the valuation of technology companies with Chinese exposure.

New US tariffs on 60 countries will strengthen the dollar as a safe-haven asset amid trade uncertainty. Temporary tariffs expire on July 24, creating a deadline for permanent tariffs and pushing markets toward hedging. The dollar's rise will continue on expectations of reduced global trade and strengthening US domestic production.

Deutsche Bank expects the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds to rise to 4.70%, implying a decline in long bond prices. The Fed's hawkish rhetoric and inflationary pressure are weighing on the debt market. The main risk is an acceleration towards 5.00% if the key level is breached.

The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds will rise from the current 4.45% to 4.70-4.80% within 30 days due to persistently high inflation and no rate cuts. The market is pricing in a hawkish Fed scenario amid the energy shock and tight labor market. The main risk is a sudden change in Fed rhetoric.

Rise in 10-year Treasury yields to 5.6-5.9% within 30 days if PCE comes in at 3.2% or higher. Key driver: hawkish Fed rhetoric and the market pricing in a September rate hike. Main risk: weak retail sales could reverse the hawkish signal, limiting yield growth.

After the news of the IMF program, the blue dollar stabilized in the range of 1,440-1,460. A slight decrease to 1,420-1,430 is expected in the next 48 hours on a wave of optimism, but fundamental pressure remains. The main risk is the resumption of rumors about reserve problems or disruptions in financing July payments.

Ahead of the FOMC minutes release, S&P 500 futures remain under pressure with an expected test of the 5500 level (1-2% decline). The main risk is an unexpectedly dovish minutes that could trigger a bounce to 5650-5700.

The cut of the MLF rate to 2.3% increased pressure on the yuan: USD/CNH rose to 7.28 and will continue to move up. With the interest rate spread with the US (3%) maintained and no effective PBOC interventions, the pair will reach 7.35-7.40 in the next 30 days. The main risk is an unexpected RRR hike, which could temporarily strengthen the yuan to 7.22.

Goldman Sachs shares may gain 3-5% in the next 30 days amid expectations of strong earnings on July 15, supported by volatility and mega-IPO. However, the main risk is disappointment in bond trading (as in the previous quarter) and a high P/E valuation, which makes the correction sharp at any negative signal.

The Turkish lira will continue to fall due to critically low reserve levels and lack of confidence in the Central Bank's policy. Even a possible currency swap with the US would only delay the crisis by 3-4 months. The main risk is sudden government intervention or a change in the geopolitical situation.

Official defaults of 12% hide the real stress level of 40-50% in regional bank portfolios. The strategy of extending problem loans only delays mass write-offs, which will lead to further decline in the KRE index. The key level is 42.50 — if broken, acceleration of decline is expected.

The decline in Brent crude to $74 (and expected drop to $60) will put direct pressure on the Canadian dollar due to high correlation. USD/CAD has already broken through the annual high of 1.3920 and may test the resistance zone of 1.4000-1.4100 in the coming weeks. The main risk is an unexpected recovery in oil demand or a change in OPEC+ policy.

It is expected that after the BOJ meeting on June 16, the USD/JPY pair will break through 162.00 within 24-48 hours. A 25 bps rate hike is already priced in, and Ueda's dovish rhetoric will trigger a new yen weakening. The main risk is an unexpectedly hawkish signal or a large-scale coordinated intervention above 163.

Further weakening of EUR/USD is expected in the next 30 days due to the growing divergence of Fed and ECB monetary policy. The 10-year bond yield spread will reach 170-180 bps by the end of July, increasing the dollar's appeal. The main risk is an unexpected hawkish ECB decision in September, but its probability is low (55% for just one hike).

Further weakening of AUD/USD to the 0.6100 level is expected within 30 days due to the growing interest rate spread between the Fed (5.5% with a likely hike) and the RBA (4.35%). Large hedge funds have already opened carry trades, which will accelerate the move. The main risk is an unexpected Fed pause or a hawkish signal from the RBA.

Oil will remain above $100 per barrel in the coming month, as US sanctions against Iran's shadow fleet will not reduce exports (2.4-2.8 million bpd), and geopolitical tensions and the creation of PGSA increase the risk premium. The main risk is sudden diplomatic détente or a recession reducing demand.

The ongoing conflict and ineffective ceasefires increase the geopolitical premium in gold. Iran's strengthening position and Hezbollah's tactical successes raise the risk of broader escalation, traditionally pushing capital into safe-haven assets. The main risk is a sudden diplomatic breakthrough that cools the conflict.

Oil prices are expected to stabilize with a slight downward bias after the coordinated show of force. The absence of real strikes on infrastructure and the imminent signing of the deal reduce the risk premium, but insurance tariffs will remain high. The main risk is an uncontrolled incident at the last moment before the memorandum is signed.

Weakening of the euro against the dollar amid recession in the Eurozone and aggressive ECB monetary policy. Capital inflows to the US due to trade tariffs and high Treasury yields will increase pressure on the EUR/USD pair to levels of 1.15-1.13. The main risk is an unexpected de-escalation of the Middle East conflict, which could collapse energy prices.

Israel's unilateral expansion of control in Gaza and statements about depopulation of the territory undermine the ceasefire, increasing the geopolitical premium. Growing instability in the Middle East will boost demand for the US dollar as a safe haven, supporting DXY in the coming month. The main risk is an unexpectedly harsh reaction from the Trump administration, which could temporarily reduce escalation.

Israel is deliberately derailing the US-Iran deal, which provided for the lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil. The expected release of 1-2 million barrels per day is canceled. Limited supply + geopolitical premium push oil up by 3-7% within a week. Main risk: sudden signing of the memorandum despite the escalation.

The yen is expected to fall to 162-163 per dollar within 24 hours after the BOJ meeting on June 16. The rate hike to 1% is already priced in, and Deputy Governor Uchida's 'dovish' stance will neutralize the effect. The main risk is unexpectedly 'hawkish' rhetoric, but the probability is extremely low.

New tariffs under Section 301 are an attempt to replace the overturned IEEPA, but the legal basis is shaky. Until July-August 2026, markets will trade in uncertainty: the tariff system may hold or collapse. The main risk is a judicial rejection that would roll back tariffs on 60 countries.

Signing the memorandum in Geneva reduces the geopolitical premium in oil, as opening the strait and the return of Iranian oil to the market pressure prices. Already after the deal announcement, WTI fell 2% to $82.90, with further decline in Brent expected to $80-82. The main risk is the temporary nature of the agreement (60 days) and possible escalation by Israel.

The rise in Italian BTP yields will continue due to loss of access to market refinancing amid the German court ruling. Hedge funds hold large short positions, and five-year CDS on Italy rose from 110 to 185 bps. The main risk is an emergency ECB meeting in July, which may temporarily stabilize the market but will not change fundamental fragmentation.