Daily health and finance trend signals based on published research
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The release of the May PCE index on June 25 will likely exceed forecasts, strengthening hawkish expectations and triggering a decline in the S&P 500. The key level is 7510: a break below opens the path to 7465 and lower. The main risk is unexpectedly low inflation, which could cause a rally, but the Fed's firm stance will limit any rebound.
A moderate decline in Brent to $76-78 is expected over 30 days amid profit-taking and market realization of oversupply. Correction risk is amplified by overflowing storage in China and planned OPEC+ quota increases. The main risk is escalation of military action in the region, which could push prices above $85.
The US-Iran agreement opens the way for the return of up to 1.5 million barrels of Iranian oil per day to the global market, creating a significant supply surplus. Brent has already fallen to $78.89, and analysts expect further decline to $76-77 in the short term. The main risk is possible escalation of conflict with Israel, which could reverse the trend upward to $83+.
Further weakening of EUR/USD is expected in the next 30 days, as the market views the ECB rate hike as a forced response to an external shock rather than a sign of a strong economy. The policy divergence between the Fed (more hawkish) and the ECB (symbolic move) amid a eurozone recession creates sustained pressure on the pair. The main risk is unexpectedly hawkish ECB rhetoric, which could trigger a short-term rebound.
The divergence in monetary policy between the Fed and the BOJ persists, and the pause in quantitative tightening and cautious rhetoric from Uchida do not provide fundamental support for the yen. Further yen weakening to the 164-168 zone is expected in the next 30 days, with interventions providing only short-term pullbacks. The main risk is an unexpectedly dovish signal from the Fed or a sharp deterioration in global risk appetite.
The dollar index reached yearly highs, but further growth is limited by the fragility of the Iran agreement and the risk of correction under sustainable de-escalation. The market prices in a hawkish Fed scenario, but Warsh's new approach creates increased volatility and uncertainty. Key risk is a reversal on weak inflation data or collapse of peace talks.