Pentagon Raises Estimate of War Cost with Iran to $29 Billion
During congressional hearings in the US, a new cost figure for the conflict was announced—nearly $29 billion, $4 billion higher than estimates from two weeks ago.
The $29 billion figure, announced by acting Pentagon financial controller Jules Hurst, is not just an accounting summary. It is a political manifesto exposing the deepest crisis of civilian control over the US military machine. Behind the dry budget lines lies total opacity, which is already costing American taxpayers at least twice the stated amount.
The Essence: What Is Really Happening
The official cost estimate for Operation Epic Fury is "approaching $29 billion," $4 billion more than the figure presented to Congress on April 29. About $24 billion of that amount is direct costs for weapons, ammunition, missiles, and equipment replacement. The rest is operational expenses for maintaining the force in the theater of operations.
However, the crux is that the Pentagon, under Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, is systematically sabotaging constitutional oversight. Lawmakers from both parties—from Democrat Betty McCollum to Republican Ken Calvert—are publicly outraged that they cannot obtain a detailed breakdown of expenses. Hegseth counters: "When it is appropriate and necessary, we will share." Senator Patty Murray sums it up: "Our job is to allocate dollars, and we are just told 'it's coming, it's coming,' and we get nothing. It's very hard to do budgets."
This is not a technical delay. It is institutional sabotage, turning the Pentagon into a "black box" accountable to no one except a narrow circle in the White House.
Timeline and Context
On February 28, the US and Israel launched massive airstrikes on Iran's nuclear and military infrastructure. The conflict quickly escalated into a full-scale air and naval campaign, including a naval blockade of Iran and its effective counter-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Key milestones:
- April 29: The Pentagon first announces the cost—$25 billion.
- May 1: The White House notifies Congress that Operation Epic Fury is "complete," although hostilities continue. This is to bypass the 60-day limit under the War Powers Act, which requires congressional approval for continued hostilities.
- May 11-12: During hearings in the House and Senate, a new figure is announced—"closer to $29 billion."
President Trump acknowledged on May 11 that the ceasefire is "on massive life support." Senator Lisa Murkowski directly told Hegseth: "When the president says hostilities have ceased... that does not appear to be the case." Meanwhile, the Senate is considering a war powers resolution that would formally end US involvement in the conflict and compel troop withdrawal.
Who Wins and Who Loses
Winners. The US military-industrial complex and its shareholders. The Pentagon's budget request for fiscal year 2027 has reached a record $1.5 trillion—an increase of more than 50% from current levels. This includes $65 billion for the "Golden Fleet" program (building battleships under the "Trump brand") and another $20 billion for the "Golden Dome" missile defense system. The House Speaker and the chair of the Appropriations Committee have already indicated that the request for additional war funding will be between $80 and $100 billion.
Cunning opponents. China and Russia formally lose due to destabilized oil markets, but their shipyards are busy with orders for tankers bypassing Hormuz, and their traders profit from reselling discounted Iranian oil. The US dollar strengthens as a "safe-haven currency," paradoxically benefiting from global instability.
Losers. The American taxpayer and average consumer. Gas prices in the US have already exceeded $4.50 per gallon. Inflation (CPI) accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year in April. The second loser is the US Constitution. The Trump administration is systematically dismantling the system of checks and balances: Hegseth openly states that the president has "all necessary authority under Article II to conduct operations without congressional consent."
What the Media Is Not Saying
Insider view: the real cost is deliberately hidden. CBS News, citing its own sources, claims the actual cost of the war is significantly higher—"closer to $50 billion," including destroyed equipment not accounted for in the Pentagon's estimate. CBS journalist Caitlin Huey-Burns gave a specific example: two dozen Reaper drones were lost, each costing about $30 million.
Multiply that by the entire range of losses—aircraft, boats, air defense systems—and $29 billion looks frankly understated. Moreover, Hurst admitted that the estimate does not even include costs for repairing damaged military bases (MILCON). The reason? The Pentagon "does not know whether it will rebuild the bases" and "what portion allies will pay."
This is not reporting; it is political casuistry designed to mask the true scale of the financial hole until the November midterm elections. If the real figure surfaced now, it would tank Republican ratings. So Hegseth is stalling: a detailed breakdown of expenses is promised "no earlier than June 11."
Forecast: Next 30 Days and 90 Days
Next 30 days (by mid-June 2026).
On June 11, when the Appropriations Committee marks up the defense budget, a bureaucratic battle will erupt. The Pentagon will be forced to provide at least a partial breakdown of expenses, but it will be "redacted" under the guise of secrecy. The committee will request an independent GAO audit, but it will be blocked until the elections. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil prices will test $115-$120 per barrel due to the continued effective blockade of the strait. The Pentagon's monthly operational costs will rise to $4-5 billion as the ceasefire de facto fails. In May, the 60-day limit under the War Powers Act expired, but Hegseth claimed that "the ceasefire put the clock on pause"—a legally absurd assertion that will only be challenged post facto.
Next 90 days (by mid-August 2026).
By August, the total cost of the campaign will exceed $50 billion—the figure CBS News already calls real. If the Trump administration decides on a new round of escalation (which is discussed daily), an emergency request for additional funding of $80-$100 billion will be needed. The November midterm elections will be the moment of truth: Democrats will almost certainly use Pentagon opacity and galloping inflation as campaign weapons. However, before that, in August, the most dangerous scenario is possible: Trump may try to force a military victory at any cost to come to the election with a "defeated Iran." This would require even larger infusions, but the Pentagon will get them—because Congress, despite all criticism, will not risk denying funding to the active military in wartime. The VIX index will settle above 30, and Treasury yields will begin to price in a premium for fiscal irresponsibility, exacerbating the debt crisis. The military-industrial complex will continue to grow rich—at the expense of every other sector of the US economy.
— Editorial Team
