Economist Zotov Explains Why Investments Have Become More Profitable Than Deposits
Against the backdrop of the Central Bank's key rate cut to 14.5%, the expert advises reducing the share of bank deposits. In his view, stocks, bonds, and funds, especially in import substitution sectors, have greater potential under current conditions.
Introduction
On April 24, 2026, the Bank of Russia made another decision in its monetary policy easing cycle, cutting the key rate by 50 basis points to 14.5% per annum. This event sent a significant signal to all financial market participants, but especially to retail investors who have still preferred bank deposits as their primary savings tool.
The day after the regulator's decision, Doctor of Economics and Deputy General Director of the Alliance Group, Vladimir Zotov, made a policy statement: investments are becoming more profitable than deposits, and it is time to reduce the share of bank deposits in favor of the stock market.
This statement reflects a structural shift occurring in the Russian financial market. After two years of double-digit deposit rates, which peaked at 30–31% per annum, a new phase is beginning. Although 14.5% is still a high rate from a historical perspective, the direction is clear—rates will continue to decline, and along with them, the attractiveness of passive deposit income will fade.
Event Details and Timeline
Central Bank Decision and Future Forecasts
The Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia decided on April 24, 2026, to cut the key rate from 15% to 14.5%. This decision, expected by most analysts, marked the fourth consecutive cut since the summer of 2025, when the rate peaked at 21%. The regulator also presented an updated forecast: the average key rate in 2026 will be 14.0–14.5%, and by 2027 it is expected to drop to 8–10% per annum.
The main argument for easing policy was the slowdown in inflation. As of March, year-on-year price growth stood at 5.9%, below the Central Bank's own expectations. Core inflation was recorded at 4.8%, meaning current price growth rates have already approached the regulator's 4% target.
Banking Sector Reaction
Following the Central Bank's decision, banks began adjusting deposit rates. According to Finuslugi, the average maximum rate among the top 10 banks in the second ten-day period of April fell to 13.39% per annum. In the week from April 20 to 27, the deposit rate index for three- and six-month deposits among the top 20 banks decreased by 0.02–0.06 percentage points: three-month deposits averaged 13.64%, six-month deposits 13.12%, and one-year deposits 12.22% per annum.
At the same time, the market still offers marketing promotions with abnormally high rates of up to 25%, but these are available only to a narrow category of clients (new money, new clients, only through marketplaces) and are limited in nature.
Vladimir Zotov's Position
In a comment to the publication "Bloknot," Vladimir Zotov explained why the current moment is a turning point for savings strategies. "The Central Bank's key rate cut to 14.5% means that soon banks will pay noticeably less on regular deposits than before, and considering price growth (inflation), a person will earn almost nothing on deposits now or even lose a little," the economist stated.
In his view, it is time to reduce the share of bank deposits and move to long-term investment instruments: stocks of proven companies, bonds, funds, and index products. The key logic is simple: it is precisely during a period of economic cooling that those who invest in real businesses—which sharply slowed down during the high-rate period and are now beginning to recover—come out ahead.
Impact and Significance (for the World / Industry / Society)
For the Financial Industry
Zotov's statement reflects a broader trend observed by market participants. As Vsevolod Lobov, Investment Director at Management Company Dokhod, notes, "a clear trend is emerging of a significant portion of deposits flowing into stock market instruments." This process will only intensify as the key rate continues to decline.
Galina Gvetadze, Head of the Multi-Family Office at BCS Ultima Private Banking, adds that Russians' investment habits have changed markedly over the past three years. While before 2022 the main agenda for wealthy clients was returns and comfortable risk, the focus has now sharply shifted to capital preservation and protection. At the same time, the share of real assets, including stocks and bonds of Russian companies, has increased.
For Society and Retail Investors
For millions of Russians with savings in banks, the current moment carries an important signal. The era of guaranteed double-digit deposit income is ending. As Igor Rastorguev, Lead Analyst at Amarkets, notes, "the window for locking in still acceptable deposit yields is narrowing but not closed." Three- and six-month deposits still hold above 13% at leading banks, which is still noticeably above the forecast annual inflation of 4.5–5.5%. However, by summer, the average yield on ruble deposits will drop to 12%, and by year-end to the 11–12% range.
Zotov emphasizes: "There is no single magic rate at which you must withdraw everything from a deposit: the main thing is to look not at the rate itself, but at what it does to your money after inflation and where it is heading—down or up."
For the Economy as a Whole
The flow of funds from deposits into investments creates prerequisites for restoring economic activity. The high key rate in 2024–2025 squeezed lending and business investment activity. Now, as rates decline, companies gain access to cheaper financing, and the stock market gains access to "long money" from retail investors.
Zotov highlighted sectors with the greatest investment potential under current conditions: agriculture and processing, high-tech manufacturing, IT services, energy, medicine, and pharmaceuticals. "Here we already see growing demand, government support, and the need for import substitution," the economist explained.
Reactions of Key Players
Analysts and Experts
The professional community generally agrees with the thesis of declining deposit attractiveness but urges caution. Vladimir Chernov, Analyst at Freedom Finance Global, expects the MOEX index to trade in the range of 2685–2735 points in the coming days, noting that expensive oil (Brent above $112 per barrel) and corporate earnings reports could support the market.
Experts from the Krasnoyarsk financial community surveyed by DK.RU identified three key instruments for 2026. Maxim Zhdanov, Director of the Krasnoyarsk Branch of Sinara Investment Bank, names bonds (especially OFZs and mutual funds based on them), stocks (the Russian market is significantly undervalued), and currency instruments.
Financier Evgeny Grankin adds: "2026 is a time for calculated risk. It is no longer necessary to go completely into a 'safe haven'; you can start closing deposits and building positions in other asset classes."
Banks and Financial Institutions
The banking sector's reaction is mixed. On one hand, banks are interested in retaining their deposit base and continue to offer promotional rates for new clients. On the other hand, they themselves actively participate in bond placements and develop investment products. On Finuslugi, for example, one can purchase bonds of major companies with floating coupons tied to the Central Bank rate: Cherkizovo offers a premium of +0.7 pp, Gazprom Neft +0.5 pp, and Sovcombank +0.3 pp.
Retail Investors
According to exchange statistics, recent months have seen a steady inflow of retail investors into the stock market. The author of a blog on BCS Express shares their strategy: "I have been actively buying stocks on dips for the past year. In the long term, stock prices are attractive and trade below historical averages. I actively use bonds, money market funds, and digital financial assets."
Forecast and Conclusions
Where to Invest?
Based on expert opinions, several most promising investment directions in the new environment can be identified:
- Fixed-coupon bonds. At current rates, one can lock in yields of around 12–16% in rubles for 2–4 years. Primary placements and long-term OFZs, which will benefit from further rate cuts, are particularly attractive.
- Floaters — bonds with floating coupons tied to the key rate. They remain attractive in a prolonged easing cycle.
- Dividend stocks. With dividend yields of 10–12% plus potential price appreciation, they can provide total returns above deposit rates.
- Money market funds and open-end mutual funds — a simple way to invest in bonds, starting from as little as 100 rubles.
Entry Strategy
Vladimir Zotov emphasizes that the transition from deposits to investments should not be abrupt. "Right now, you don't need to put everything into one instrument; it's better to 'exit deposits' gradually and spread money across different places—part in relatively reliable bonds and government securities, part in stocks or funds held for 3–5 years."
Specific proportions depend on the investor's risk tolerance and investment horizon. For a conservative portfolio, the recommended structure is: 40–50% dividend stocks, 30–40% bonds, 10–20% currency or gold.
Conclusion
The Central Bank's decision to cut the key rate to 14.5% is a clear signal that the easing cycle continues. If inflation continues to slow, we may see another cut at the next meeting on June 19. For retail investors, this means the "window" for locking in high deposit yields is closing, and investment instruments are taking center stage.
As Zotov summarizes: "Assets will grow in the real economy sector, so simply hiding money 'under the mattress' or even investing only for maximum interest will not be as profitable. With inflation, money tends to depreciate."
The current moment is not a time for panic, but for a conscious review of savings strategies. Investments are indeed becoming more profitable than deposits, but this transition requires a balanced approach, diversification, and a long-term planning horizon.
— Editorial Team
