Oil prices fluctuate near $100 per barrel amid fragile US-Iran ceasefire
Brent futures trade around $100.2 per barrel. Prices resumed their rise after the ceasefire between the US and Iran was broken and accusations of overnight attacks in the south of the country.
In early May 2026, the oil market turned into a minefield where every message from the Persian Gulf can move Brent quotes by 2-3% in a matter of minutes. Formally, we see a figure around $100 per barrel. But what lies beneath the surface of these prices is a complex zero-sum game where the interests of hedge funds, the Trump administration, and Asian consumers collide.
The essence: what is really happening
Nominally, oil is rising due to the breakdown of the ceasefire between the US and Iran and the exchange of airstrikes. Brent settled around $101.3 per barrel, jumping 1.4% in the session on May 8, with an intraday high of plus 3%. However, the real pricing mechanism now is not the physical balance of supply and demand, but the options market and high-frequency reaction to "news noise."
We have entered a phase that traders have aptly dubbed "headline roulette." Analysts at Vanda Insights and Price Futures Group agree: the market chronically overestimates the prospects for diplomatic détente, then painfully corrects after each military incident.
However, as an insider, I see a structural shift here. The market has lost confidence in "peace initiatives" as a sustainable factor. Every ceasefire statement is now priced in by traders not as a fundamental change, but as a temporary respite for profit-taking before the next round of escalation.
Timeline and context
The chain of events leading to the current level of $100-101 per barrel has formed rapidly. The conflict flared up on February 28, 2026, with joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran. This instantly paralyzed shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic artery through which about 20% of the world's oil and gas supplies normally pass.
By early May, outlines of a ceasefire emerged. The Trump administration promoted a 30-day ceasefire plan, and prices went down—a decline of 6% over the week. However, on Thursday, May 7, the US and Iran exchanged new strikes: Tehran reported an attack on an Iranian tanker, Washington reported shelling of its destroyers in the Hormuz region.
Friday, May 8 began with a 3% jump in oil futures. Trump hastened to say that the ceasefire was "technically still in effect," but the market no longer believes words—it trades facts.
Against this backdrop, a time bomb surfaced. The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) launched an investigation into oil traders suspected of using insider information about Trump's statements. It involves trades worth about $7 billion conducted through ICE and CME exchanges immediately before announcements of attack delays or ceasefires.
Who wins and who loses
Winners:
Short-term speculative funds using news analysis algorithms. Volatility with an amplitude of 3% per session allows them to profit from every "news shock," regardless of the direction of price movement.
US shale oil producers. At $100 per barrel, the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford operate with a margin of over $45 per barrel, stimulating a new drilling cycle.
Physical oil traders with access to storage. The market price structure has shifted to steep backwardation, making oil storage in anticipation of price increases super profitable.
Losers:
European and Asian refineries dependent on Middle Eastern oil. The insurance premium for passing through the Strait of Hormuz is sky-high, and alternative routes add $8-12 to the cost of each barrel.
Airlines and the transport sector. Jet fuel is rising faster than crude oil, squeezing carrier margins.
Consumers in developing countries. Fuel subsidies are becoming unaffordable for budgets, provoking social tensions from India to Nigeria.
What the media are not telling
The first and main non-obvious fact: the CFTC investigation into suspicious trades worth $7 billion is not a technical episode, but potentially the largest insider scandal in the history of commodity markets. Most of the suspicious positions are short bets opened just before Trump's statements, which were guaranteed to crash prices.
If the investigation finds a link between traders and the presidential administration, it could lead to impeachment proceedings. The market is currently completely ignoring this political risk, although it could collapse not only oil quotes but also the entire US stock market.
The second insider insight concerns the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia is urgently completing the construction of a bypass pipeline through UAE territory to the port of Fujairah, capable of pumping up to 6 million barrels per day bypassing the strait. This project is kept in the shadows, but it will determine whether the global market can survive a prolonged conflict without a price shock to $130-150 per barrel.
The third point: China, through swap lines with Saudi Arabia, is increasing oil purchases settled in yuan, bypassing the dollar. The Trump administration sees this as a threat to the reserve currency status, and this—not Iran's nuclear program—is the true reason for the US reluctance to reduce its military presence in the region.
PVM Oil Associates analyst John Evans clearly outlined the fork: "How quickly can supplies from the Persian Gulf countries be restored, what will be the state of inventories by the start of the US driving season, and what will sanctions look like after a settlement—all these questions are worth considering. But none of them can be answered until there is a long-term solution to the fighting problem."
Forecast: next 30 days and 90 days
Next 30 days (until June 10, 2026):
Brent will remain in the range of $95-108 per barrel. The key driver is not military action, but the start of the US driving season. If gasoline inventories fall below the five-year minimum and the strait remains closed, testing $110 is inevitable. However, I expect the Trump administration to push for a temporary ceasefire by early June to lower prices before the peak consumption season. This will create ideal conditions for a short-term short from $108 targeting $96.
The CFTC investigation may enter a public phase, causing targeted collapses in the stocks of major trading companies and banks involved in suspicious trades.
90-day horizon (until August 2026):
One of two scenarios will play out. In the baseline scenario (55% probability), the conflict parties reach a framework agreement on demilitarization of the strait, and Brent retreats to $82-88. The market will breathe a sigh of relief, airlines and transport companies will recover losses, and inflationary pressure in the US will ease, allowing the Fed to soften its rhetoric.
In the negative scenario (45%), hostilities drag on, the Saudi bypass pipeline is attacked or sabotaged, and oil surges to $125-135. This would trigger a recession in Europe, a 15-20% stock market crash, and a flight to Treasuries and gold. Bitcoin in this scenario would first fall as a risk asset, but then could recover as an alternative to the traditional financial system losing investor confidence.
I personally bet on an intermediate option: a ceasefire will be reached by the end of June, but it will remain fragile. Oil will settle in the range of $88-95, and the geopolitical risk premium will become a permanent component of the price, increasing the "fair" level of Brent by $12-15 relative to pre-conflict estimates.
— Editorial Team
