Shokhin Says 70 Trillion Rubles in Russian Savings Could Flow to Stock Market
Head of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP) Alexander Shokhin reported that Russians have accumulated 70 trillion rubles in savings. If the key rate is lowered, part of these funds could shift from bank deposits to stocks and bonds, helping achieve market capitalization targets.
Title: 70 Trillion Rubles in Savings: Why Shokhin's Statement Is Not a Forecast but a Directive for the Central Bank
Author: Analyst on the Russian stock market and monetary policy
[The Essence]: What Is Really Happening
On May 22, 2026, Alexander Shokhin, head of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP), stated that Russians have accumulated 70 trillion rubles in savings, and if the key rate is lowered, part of these funds could shift from bank deposits to the stock market.
The media picked up this news as a positive signal for the stock market. But the real story, which headlines don't tell, is the public bargaining between business and the Central Bank. Shokhin is not making a forecast. He is sending a signal to Elvira Nabiullina and her deputy Alexei Zabotkin: "Lower the rate, and we will give you the capital inflow into stocks needed to fulfill the presidential decree."
The figure of 70 trillion rubles is no joke. For comparison, the total capitalization of the entire Russian stock market on the Moscow Exchange is about 51.6 trillion rubles. That means household savings exceed market capitalization by 35%. If even 10% of this money—7 trillion rubles—comes to the exchange, it would double trading volumes and could boost the MOEX index by 30–40% in a year.
But there are three "buts" that Shokhin delicately omitted.
Timeline and Context
May 2024: President Vladimir Putin signs a decree on national development goals. Stock market capitalization must reach 66% of GDP by 2030 and 75% of GDP by 2036. At that time, capitalization was about 30–35% of GDP. An ambitious target.
Early 2026: The total volume of individual funds in Russian banks reaches 67 trillion rubles, according to the Central Bank's report on banking sector development. Of this, 46.2 trillion are time deposits, and 19.6 trillion are current account balances.
February 2026: The Central Bank publishes a forecast in which the average key rate for 2026 is expected at 13.5–14.5%. Business is unhappy: at such rates, loans are unavailable, and the stock market is not growing.
April 2026: The Central Bank updates its forecast toward tightening—the average rate for 2026 is raised to 14.0–14.5%, and for 2027 to 8.0–10.0% (previously 8.0–9.0%). This means the regulator does not plan a rapid reduction.
February–May 2026: Owners of small deposits (up to 1 million rubles) withdraw money. In the first quarter, the volume of deposits in this segment decreased by 1 trillion rubles (-7.3%). People are either spending or looking for alternatives—but so far not on the exchange, but in cash or other instruments.
May 22, 2026: Shokhin makes his statement. 70 trillion rubles is 3 trillion more than the official Central Bank data at the beginning of the year. Where does the difference come from? Probably, Shokhin included not only bank deposits but also cash savings "under the mattress," as well as funds in brokerage accounts and non-state pension funds.
Who Wins and Who Loses
Winners (not obvious):
- Large companies planning IPOs. If savings indeed flow to the market, demand for new stock issues will rise. Companies that have already filed applications or are preparing—from retailers to tech firms—will benefit first.
- Brokers and asset management companies. Tinkoff Investments, BCS, VTB Investments—they will earn commissions on every ruble that shifts from deposits to the exchange. Their stocks (if public) may get a boost.
- NPFs. Non-state pension funds have long awaited "long money" from the population. If people start actively investing in pension programs, NPFs will get a stable inflow.
Losers:
- Banks with a retail model. Sberbank, VTB, Alfa-Bank earn on the spread between deposit rates and loan rates. If clients start massively withdrawing money from deposits into stocks, bank funding will become more expensive. Margins will shrink.
- DIA depositories. The Deposit Insurance Agency receives contributions from banks proportional to the volume of insured deposits. A reduction in deposits means a reduction in revenue.
- Conservative depositors. Those who leave money in deposits after a rate cut will receive ever lower real returns. At a rate of 10–12% and inflation of 6–7%, real income is 3–5%. On the exchange, potential returns are higher, but risks are incomparable.
What the Media Are Not Saying
Insight number one: Shokhin's statement is political pressure on the Central Bank ahead of the June key rate meeting. The nearest FOMC meeting in the US is June 16–17, and the Russian Central Bank will likely react to the Fed's decision. Shokhin publishes his figure a month before this to create public expectations of a cut. If the Central Bank does not cut, business will say: "We warned you, you are slowing the economy."
But the reality is that the Central Bank cannot sharply lower the rate. The regulator's forecast for 2026 is 14.0–14.5%. Even in a disinflationary scenario (the most favorable for the market), the average rate in 2026 will be 10.5–11.5%, dropping below 10% only by the end of the year. There will be no rapid inflow of 70 trillion.
Insight number two: 70 trillion rubles is an illusion of liquidity. Yes, formally the population has such savings. But 70% of them (about 50 trillion) belong to 6% of the population—those with accounts of 3 million rubles and above. These people already have access to the exchange, and their money has long been distributed among deposits, stocks, real estate, and currency.
The remaining 20 trillion are middle-class savings, and they are extremely risk-sensitive. After 2022, the psychology of the Russian investor changed: people fear asset freezes, account blocks, and volatility. To get them to bring money to the market, you need not just a 10% rate, but years of stability and trust. Which currently does not exist.
Insight number three: Shokhin's statement contains a hidden maneuver—he does not say when the shift will occur. "As the key rate gradually decreases"—this phrase allows him to claim success even after 3–5 years. If the market does not grow, he will say: "The rate is still not low enough." If it grows: "I told you so."
But what matters for investors is different: the Central Bank's scenarios foresee a return to a neutral rate of 7.5–8.5% only in 2028. That means the horizon for the savings shift is not 2026 or 2027, but 2028–2030. Shokhin does not specify this because it kills the drama.
Forecast: Next 30 Days and 90 Days
30 days (until end of June 2026):
The key event is the Bank of Russia rate meeting on June 20–21. I expect the rate to remain unchanged at 14.0–14.5%. The Central Bank will not cut ahead of the summer season, when consumer activity and inflationary pressure traditionally rise.
The stock market will react neutrally-negatively. The MOEX index will likely stay in the range of 3200–3400 points. Individual stories—companies close to the state (Sberbank, Gazprom, Rosneft)—may get support, as they would be the targets of a "people's IPO" if it happens.
90 days (by mid-August 2026):
By August, the rate trajectory for the second half of the year will become clear. My base scenario (65% probability): The Central Bank will start a rate cut cycle from September 2026, but in slow steps of 0.5–1% per quarter. By end of 2026, the rate will be around 12–13%.
Under this scenario, the stock market will receive a moderate inflow from large investors who start exiting deposits early, before the official cut. But there will be no mass influx of retail depositors—they will come only when the rate falls below 10%, i.e., no earlier than mid-2027.
Alternative scenario (30%): The Central Bank unexpectedly cuts the rate in June by 1–2% under pressure from the Kremlin and business. In this case, the stock market will soar 10–15% in a month, but then a correction will follow, as inflation accelerates and the Central Bank is forced to raise the rate back. I assess this scenario as unlikely.
Optimistic scenario (5%): The Central Bank and government launch a "people's IPO" program with tax incentives for long-term investors. This could bring 5–10 trillion rubles to the market as early as 2026. But so far, there are no signs of such a program being prepared.
Editorial Forecast
Asset: MOEX Index (IMOEX) — sideways in the next 24–72 hours. Shokhin's statement is already priced in, but the market awaits concrete steps from the Central Bank. Expected range: 3300–3380 points. Key resistance level: 3400 points (May high), support: 3250 points. Confidence level: medium (60%), as a short-term rally on expectations of an imminent rate cut is possible. Main risk: publication of May inflation data—if it exceeds 7% year-on-year, the market could retreat to 3200 points in 1–2 days. Editorial opinion, not investment advice.
— Editorial Team
