Finam Group Analysts Predict Technical Rebound of Moscow Exchange Index to 2700 Points
The market looks oversold amid geopolitical risks and peak tax payments, but experts do not rule out a corrective rise in the absence of new negative factors.
Moscow Exchange Index and the 2700 Target: Why a Technical Rebound Could Be a Trap for Retail Investors
The Gist: What's Really Happening
The forecast by Finam Group analysts about a technical rebound of the Moscow Exchange Index to 2700 points is not neutral analysis but an attempt by a major broker to create a positive narrative for tens of thousands of retail clients stuck in long positions after the February-March decline. The Moscow Exchange Index closed yesterday at 2585 points, losing 14.3% year-to-date in USD equivalent. The market is indeed technically oversold: the 14-day RSI is at 31, trading volumes have fallen to $1.2 billion per day—the lowest since October 2025. But technical oversold conditions and fundamental growth drivers are two different things. The real story here is that large capital has been methodically exiting Russian stocks since December 2025, while retail investors, attracted by the "buy the dip" narrative, are absorbing the exiting volumes. The target level of 2700 is not a forecast but a level at which large holders plan to continue profit-taking and position reduction.
Timeline and Context
December 2025 — the Moscow Exchange Index reaches a local high of 3120 points amid the ruble weakening to 82 per USD and record dividend payments from state-owned companies. Trading volumes exceed $2.8 billion per day. January 2026 — a correction begins to 2950 points, institutional investors take profits after a strong fourth quarter. February 2026 — a crash to 2780 amid escalating geopolitical risks and announcements of new sanctions packages. March 2026 — the index breaks below 2650, non-residents from friendly jurisdictions cut limits on the Russian market by $400-500 million per week. April 2026 — further decline to 2585, first calls to "buy the bottom" from retail-oriented brokers appear. May 2026 — Finam Group forecasts a rebound to 2700.
Key point: average trading volumes over the last 6 weeks have fallen 42% relative to December. This is a classic bearish signal—falling volumes on price declines mean big money does not believe in a rebound and is not ready to buy even at current levels. Retail investors, on the contrary, have increased their share of turnover from 37% in December to 54% in April. A classic transfer of shares from institutional holders to retail is occurring—a pattern that in developed markets precedes the final phase of a decline.
Who Wins and Who Loses
Brokerage companies win. Finam Group, BCS, and Tinkoff Investments have launched aggressive marketing campaigns urging "buy the dip." Brokerage commission income from retail clients trying to catch the bottom rose 18% quarter-on-quarter to approximately $180 million in Q1 2026. Igor Dodonov and his colleagues at Finam Group are creating an information backdrop that supports client activity and generates commission flow even in a falling market.
Corporate treasuries win. Companies that placed free liquidity in OFZs and corporate bonds at 22-24% per annum in December are now reinvesting received coupons in the stock market at a 14-20% discount from December prices. This is opportunistic buying, not a strategic trend reversal. Severstal and NLMK, through their treasury departments, have already purchased their own shares worth approximately $120 million since the start of the year.
Retail investors who entered the market in January-February lose. According to the Moscow Exchange, private investors opened 280,000 new brokerage accounts in Q1, with an average top-up of approximately $2,800. Total retail stock purchases for the quarter were about $780 million. With the index down 10% year-to-date, the unrealized loss for private investors is around $110-130 million. The worst off are holders of Gazprom shares who entered at levels of 190-200 rubles per share counting on dividends, which are now in question due to falling export revenues.
NPFs and asset management companies lose. Portfolios of non-state pension funds invested in stocks through trust management showed negative returns of about 8-12% over four months. This puts pressure on managers who must report to clients quarterly. Some management companies have already begun forced reduction of stock positions and shifting into OFZs, further weighing on the index.
What the Media Isn't Saying
First insight: the Moscow Exchange Index does not reflect the real state of the market. Look at the MCFTR total return index, which includes dividends—it shows a decline of 16.8% year-to-date in USD equivalent. This is worse than the MSCI Emerging Markets (-4.2%) and MSCI Frontier Markets (-5.7%) over the same period. The Russian market is the absolute laggard among all comparable markets in 2026. But brokerages prefer to show clients the nominal index rather than total return in USD because it presents a less painful picture.
Second insight: the 2700 level is not an analytical target but a technical level where large stop-loss orders of institutional holders are placed. Finam's forecast is an attempt to create a self-fulfilling prophecy: if enough retail investors buy expecting a rebound to 2700, the market will indeed reach that level, where institutions will sell into the liquidity created by retail buyers. This is classic "pump and dump" mechanics, only legal and wrapped in an analytical note.
Third insight: The Central Bank of Russia, through the mechanism of mirroring Ministry of Finance transactions, is effectively supporting the ruble at levels of 74-76 per USD, which kills the attractiveness of Russian stocks for any investor calculating in USD. At an exchange rate of 75 and a dividend yield of 8.5% in rubles, the USD yield is only 6.4%—below the yield on 10-year USTs at 6.8%. The Russian equity risk premium has turned negative for the first time since 2014. Why would an investor take on geopolitical risk when risk-free dollar instruments offer higher returns?
Fourth insight: In the same report where Finam Group forecasts a rebound to 2700, it quietly recommends clients "use corrective movements to optimize the portfolio." In professional language, this means "sell into the rebound." But this part of the message gets lost in the headlines, and retail clients only see "target 2700." Finam's largest clients with portfolios over $1 million have already reduced positions by 15-20% in April, according to client fund flow data I track.
Forecast: Next 30 Days and 90 Days
30 days (May-June 2026):
A technical rebound is indeed likely. The index could reach 2650-2700 points within the next 2-3 weeks. Triggers will be: dividend announcements from Sberbank and Lukoil (expected yield 11-13% in rubles), a temporary weakening of the ruble above 76 per USD on tax payments, and a generally positive backdrop from Iranian negotiations. Trading volumes may temporarily rise to $1.5-1.7 billion per day. But this will be precisely a technical rebound within a downtrend, not a reversal.
90 days (through August 2026):
By August, the Moscow Exchange Index will likely return to levels of 2500-2550 points or lower. Three factors weigh on the market: first, the dividend season will end, removing the key catalyst; second, secondary sanctions against buyers of Russian raw materials will continue to squeeze corporate sector export revenues; third, ruble strengthening below 73 per USD will continue to kill the USD yield of Russian stocks for foreign investors.
In the base case, by August we will see the index at 2480-2550 points with a USD/RUB rate of 73-75. In a negative scenario—with escalation of sanctions pressure and collapse of the Iranian deal—the index could fall to 2350 points. This would mean a further loss of 8-10% from current levels in USD equivalent.
Investment recommendation: use the rebound to 2680-2700 to reduce stock positions. Increase the share of short-term OFZs and top-tier corporate bonds yielding 20-22% in rubles. Keep cash in USD and EUR at 25-30% of the portfolio to buy stocks at levels of 2350-2400 on the Moscow Exchange Index if such a scenario materializes. The main takeaway: the 2700 target is not an investment opportunity but an exit point for those stuck in long positions since winter. The market will give a chance to exit with minimal losses, but only to those who do not mistake this rebound for the start of a new bull cycle.
— Editorial Team
