Trump Loses Patience: US Pressures Iran for Swift Nuclear Deal
US President warned that Tehran must act quickly, or face new military force. Washington demands removal of 400 kg of uranium from the country, but Iran says it 'does not trust' the Americans.
For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won't be anything left of them. Donald Trump wrote this on Truth Social on Sunday, May 17 — and markets immediately priced another dollar of war premium into oil. The US President is losing patience. Talks with Tehran have hit a dead end, and now the White House is openly counting the days until a new round of bombings.
Formally, the ceasefire has held since early April. In reality, the diplomatic machine has been stuck in place for weeks. Iran rejected American conditions — and put forward its own, which Washington called garbage.
Five Demands, Zero Compromises
Iran's Fars news agency revealed five conditions the US conveyed to Tehran for resuming negotiations. The list is tough: hand over 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%; keep only one nuclear facility operational; waive any compensation for war damage; expect no unfreezing of even a quarter of Iranian assets; and accept that a ceasefire on all fronts depends on the progress of talks.
Iran responded with a mirror set of demands. Tehran wants full sanctions relief, unfreezing of all assets, compensation payments, recognition of sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, and an end to the war on all fronts — primarily in Lebanon.
The sides are not just far apart. They speak different languages. Washington demands concessions before talks. Tehran insists on concessions as a precondition for talks. A classic diplomatic stalemate.
400 Kilograms of Fear
The figure of 400 kilograms is no coincidence. Iran currently holds approximately 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% purity. To create a nuclear charge, it needs to be further enriched to 90%. Iranian scientists can complete this process in a few weeks — they have all the equipment, despite strikes on Isfahan in June 2025.
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi stated that the underground tunnels in Isfahan, where about 200 kilograms of uranium are stored, 'likely did not sustain significant damage.' Agency inspections ceased last June when Israel and the US launched a series of strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. No one really knows what is happening with the uranium now. That is why Washington insists on its immediate transfer.
Trump, in a phone interview with PBS in early May, claimed a deal was 'very close.' He spoke of a 14-page memorandum, thirty-day negotiations, and a moratorium on uranium enrichment. But two weeks later, the mood changed radically. Mediators in Pakistan failed to move the parties. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated bluntly at a BRICS meeting in New Delhi: 'We doubt the seriousness of the Americans.'
Who Offers a Way Out — and Why It's Not Taken
In mid-April, Vladimir Putin proposed shipping Iranian uranium to Russia. Trump rejected the offer. The formal reason: 'the safety of the material must be guaranteed by the US.' The real reason: Washington does not want to give Moscow such a trump card.
The IAEA discussed the Russian option separately. Grossi confirmed talks with Moscow about possible storage of Iranian uranium on Russian territory. Araghchi said at the BRICS meeting that Tehran would consider the Russian proposal 'at later stages' of negotiations. But those stages are still far off.
Meanwhile, Trump oscillates between carrot and stick. In one interview, he says, 'We get along great with Iran.' In another, he threatens to wipe the country off the map. Such amplitude is part of negotiation tactics. But it also undermines trust. Tehran hears only threats and concludes: the Americans want not a deal, but capitulation.
Who Benefits from the Stalemate
Russia and China. Moscow gains double benefit: expensive oil and the role of an indispensable mediator. Beijing builds strategic reserves by buying discounted Iranian oil through a shadow fleet. The longer the stalemate lasts, the stronger the positions of both players.
American shale producers are also in the black. The higher the war premium in oil prices, the more profitable production in the Permian Basin. Oil giants ExxonMobil and Chevron post record profits for the second consecutive quarter.
Everyone else loses. The European economy is buckling under energy prices. Airlines lose billions. Israel's economy shrank by 3.3% in the first quarter. Gulf states see capital outflows. And the dollar oscillates between safe-haven status and fear of stagflation — the DXY index is stuck below 99 points and cannot find direction.
Three Scenarios for Summer
First — a breakthrough in negotiations. Trump agrees to partial sanctions relief, Iran agrees to export some uranium. Probability low. For this, one of the leaders would have to admit they overplayed their hand.
Second — a freeze of the conflict without a formal deal. The ceasefire holds, the strait remains semi-closed, oil fluctuates in the $100–115 range. This is the baseline scenario right now.
Third — collapse of the truce and resumption of bombings. Trump finally loses patience. The US and Israel launch new strikes on Iranian facilities. Brent surges above $130. The Fed raises rates emergency. The global economy plunges into recession by the third quarter.
Trump gave Tehran weeks, not months. The clock is ticking — and the B-2 bombers at Diego Garcia base haven't gone anywhere.
— Editorial Team
