Articles by tag: geopolitics
Geopolitics and Oil Drop: Iran Ceasefire and PCE Inflation
Analysis of the impact of the US-Iran ceasefire on Brent oil, futures, and Treasury yields. Forecast for the PCE index and hawkish Fed policy. Read details.
US and Iran negotiations 2026: oil shock and roadmap
Analysis of US-Iran negotiations in Switzerland: 60-day roadmap, impact on Brent oil, benefits for Iran and risks for markets. Price forecast and key levels.
EU retaliatory tariffs on US goods: what is known about €20 billion
EU approved retaliatory tariffs on American goods worth €20 billion. How will this affect trade, politics, and markets? Read detailed analysis and consequences.
What Is the Balance of Power in International Relations?
Learn what is the balance of power in international relations, how balancing works, and why it shapes U.S.-China rivalry and global stability today.
How Do Economic Sanctions Work and Are They Effective?
Learn how economic sanctions work and are they effective in achieving foreign policy goals. Explore mechanisms, empirical evidence, and key success factors in this comprehensive guide.
US-Iran Deal: $300 Billion Fund and Oil Risks
The US-Iran deal involves creating a $300 billion fund for reconstruction, but analysts warn of hidden risks. Detailed analysis of the impact on the oil market and the Fed.
Bitcoin exceeded $66,000: analysis of the truce and Bank of Japan rate
Analysis of the reasons for Bitcoin's rise above $66,000: the impact of the US-Iran truce and the Bank of Japan's rate hike to 1%. Risk and market signal analysis. Read.
Hard Power vs Soft Power: Key Geopolitical Differences
Understand what is the difference between hard power and soft power in geopolitics. Learn their strategic uses, costs, and how smart power combines both for influence.
What Is the Security Dilemma in International Politics?
What is the security dilemma in international politics? Learn how defensive actions trigger conflict cycles, with real-world examples and data-backed analysis.
European defense sector: stock growth and new technologies
Analysis of the European defense sector: structural revaluation, new technologies and implications of US trade tariffs. Who wins and who loses?
OPEC+ production quotas: why they are unfeasible when the Strait of Hormuz is closed
Analysis: OPEC+ raises oil quotas, but the closure of the Strait of Hormuz makes them unrealistic. Who loses and who wins? Insights and forecasts.
Bitcoin Price Above $63,000: Geopolitical Bounce or Reversal?
Analysis of BTC recovery to $63,000 amid hopes for a US-Iran deal. Why this is a breather, not a trend. Read on-chain data and forecast.
US Sanctions Against Iran's Shadow Fleet: Negotiation Failure
Analysis of new US sanctions against 500+ vessels of Iran's shadow fleet after failed negotiations. Why Washington is losing the oil war — insights for investors.
Kremlin stated Europe is not ready to be a mediator: impact on ruble and US Treasuries
Analysis of Kremlin's rejection of European mediation: why it will strengthen the ruble, hit the euro, and change the US Treasury bond market. Read forecasts and insights.
Asian stock markets rebounded: Kospi rally and gold decline
Analysis of Kospi rally of 3.4% and gold decline to $4320 ahead of US inflation data. Why this is not a trend reversal but a trap for investors. Read the forecast.
Brent crude fell below $91: a bull trap and targets above $120
Analysis of Brent crude's fall below $91 amid the Israel-Iran ceasefire. Why this is a false bottom, how China and India are buying up oil, price forecast up to $120. Read.
US response to Iran after destruction of Apache helicopter: analysis
Analysis of US strike on Iran after Apache downing: cost disparity, deterrence strategy failure, and implications for oil and dollar. Read details.
US aircraft carrier rounds Africa: why USS Bush avoids Bab el-Mandeb
Aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush rounds Africa due to threat from Houthis and hypersonic missiles. Analysis of consequences for the US, oil, and global security. Read details.
EU Sanctions Against Iran: Why They Don't Work
Analysis: EU Sanctions Expansion Against Iran Over Strait Blockade Is a Symbolic Gesture. Find Out Who Really Wins and Why Europe Loses.
11th EU sanctions package against Iran 2026: essence and consequences
Analysis of the 11th EU sanctions package against Iran: why Russia was excluded, who wins and loses, real consequences for petrochemicals and finance. Read more.
Oil up to $95: price rise due to tanker blockade in the Strait of Hormuz
Iran detained tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, triggering a rise in insurance premiums to $7.5 million per voyage. Oil prices reached $95. Analytics and forecasts.
US labor market heats up Fed rates: 2026 analysis
Analysis of the US employment report (172k new jobs), impact of the war with Iran and the Fed rate in 2026. Trader insights. Find out who wins and who loses.
US inflation accelerated to 3.8%: triple blow and risks
US inflation reached 3.8% due to war, tariffs, and AI. The Fed may raise rates. Analysis of drivers, consequences, and forecasts. Read more.
US-Iran exchange of strikes: UN reaction and consequences
Analysis of the real consequences of the exchange of strikes between the US and Iran, including the impact on oil, gas, airlines and financial markets. Read the details.
Iran guaranteed Japan passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz: deal terms
Iran opened a green corridor for Japanese ships in the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for goods and assets. Who won and who lost in the new two-tier system? Read the analysis.
Brazil extended fuel subsidies: impact of the Middle East conflict
Analysis of the extension of diesel subsidies in Brazil until July 2026, hidden risks of inflation, budget deficit and consequences of the geopolitical crisis. Read the full analysis.
Trump tightens terms of deal with Iran: dismantling of nuclear program
Trump demands dismantling of Iran's nuclear program instead of freeze. Analysis of Brent oil, positions of the US, Israel, Russia, and China. Forecast until 2026.
ECB recorded high volatility and energy shock due to the Middle East
ECB minutes revealed panic over 3% inflation and persistent energy shock. What are the implications for the euro, rates, and the economy? Read the analysis.
US strike on Iranian drone facility: analysis and forecasts
Analysis of the limited US strike on a drone control station in Bandar Abbas: why there will be no war, impact on oil, gold and markets. Read forecasts for 30 and 90 days.
Bitcoin recovery $74,000: bull trap? Analysis 2026
Bitcoin rose to $73,736 amid US-Iran ceasefire, but it's a trap. Technical analysis, divergence with Treasuries and forecast to $62,000. Read.
Dollar moderately rises amid demand for safe-haven assets: DXY analysis
Dollar index DXY rises on geopolitics. Paradox: dollar strengthens as Treasury yields fall and stocks rally. Forecast to 100+ if PCE hot or pullback to 98.5. Read.
Oil prices ignore escalation: PCE report on May 28 will determine Fed's course
Why oil does not rise on US strikes on Iran? Market awaits PCE report on May 28. Forecasts for Brent, deal scenarios and impact on Fed. Read analysis.
BNY Forecast: Fed Rates 2026 No Cut Due to Hormuz Blockade
BNY canceled Fed rate cuts in 2026 due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Analytics, insights and forecasts for investors. Read more.
Qatar ignored US blockade: new Iran route through Hormuz
Qatar sent a gas carrier through a new Iranian corridor bypassing the US blockade. Analysis: how this changes the balance of power in the Persian Gulf and global LNG trade. Read.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Hit Records: Hidden Risks of the Truce
S&P 500 at 7519, Nasdaq at 26656 — growth on truce rumors. Who actually profited and who will lose. Volume analysis and forecast until August.
China called for a settlement of the Middle East crisis: Beijing's hidden motives
Why does China demand 'swift' peace in the Middle East? Analysis of Mao Ning's statements, oil contracts in yuan, and covert support for Iran. Read more.
Strait of Hormuz: Rubio's threat and market consequences
Marco Rubio threatened to open the Strait of Hormuz 'one way or another'. Analysis of the impact on oil, gas, the dollar, and the global economy. Forecast for investors.
Russian stock market: sluggish dynamics amid falling oil prices
Analysis of the sluggish opening of the Moscow Exchange index on May 26: impact of oil, geopolitics, and taxes. Forecast up to 90 days and key levels. Read more.
Inflation will return to target later: Fed concerns
Fed minutes showed increased risk of inflation returning to 2% later. Analysis of the impact of conflict and energy shock on the rate. Read forecasts and insights.
European markets rose: impact of US-Iran negotiations | Analysis
Analysis of the rise in European stock indices amid progress in US-Iran negotiations. Oil decline, capital shift to stocks, forecast for DAX and Brent. Read more.
US-Iran Peace Agreement Draft: 60-Day Truce, Market Analysis
Leak of the Hormuz Strait Agreement Draft: 60-Day Truce Without Nuclear Program. Analysis of Consequences for Brent Oil, Benefits and Risks. Read more.
Iran banned uranium export: new deal price and negotiations with the US
Iran's Supreme Leader banned export of enriched uranium but agreed to dilution under IAEA control. How will this affect oil and negotiations with the US? Read the analysis.
Qatari Group in Tehran: US-Iran Deal 2026
Qatari mediators arrived in Tehran to finalize the agreement between the US and Iran. Terms, hidden details, oil and market forecast. Read more.
Critical threat level in the Strait of Hormuz: UKMTO analysis
Why did UKMTO assign a critical threat level to the Strait of Hormuz without incidents? Analysis of insurance risks, consequences for the oil market and global trade. Read more.
US-Iran negotiations: final stage and disagreements over uranium and the Strait of Hormuz
We analyze the final stage of US-Iran negotiations: disagreements over uranium, tolls for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and risks for the oil market. Learn the forecast and implications for investors.
Foreign investments in US government bonds fell to $9.25 trillion
Investments in US Treasuries fell to $9.25 trillion due to geopolitics and revaluation. Learn how the restructuring of the dollar system affects markets and why this is just the beginning.
UK Sanctions Easing: Fuel Imports from Russia
Why London Allowed Imports of Diesel and Aviation Kerosene from Russian Raw Materials and How It Will Change the Market. Find Out Who Benefits from the Sanctions Adjustment.
Early elections in Israel: impact on the shekel and markets
How early elections in Israel affect the shekel exchange rate and oil prices. Market analysis, USD/ILS forecasts and risks for investors. Read before trading.
Brent crude fell below $105: market analysis
Analysis of the reasons for the fall in Brent crude after Trump's statements about negotiations with Iran. Why this could be a trap for the market and what will happen to prices next. Find out the forecast.
Trump to Discuss Strikes on Iran: Insider Analysis
Axios: Trump Staged the Cancellation of Strike on Iran. Analysis of Negotiations, Market Reaction, and Oil Price Forecast. Learn the Real Causes of the Crisis.