Russian Stock Market Opens with Weak Dynamics Amid Falling Oil and External Tensions
On the morning of May 26, the Moscow Exchange index changed slightly, reaching 2,598.07 points. Pressure on the market comes from falling oil prices, despite improved external stock market conditions.
Weak Opening of the Moscow Exchange Index: A Moment of Truth Disguised as Boredom
"The Essence": What Is Really Happening
On the morning of May 26, 2026, the Moscow Exchange index showed 2,598.07 points — a change of exactly zero percent. The official version: "weak dynamics amid falling oil and external tensions." A nice explanation that explains nothing.
A non-obvious insight: the entire Russian economy has shrunk into a point of expectation — and the market has simply frozen in fear. On May 25, the index fell below 2,600 points for the first time since May 8, losing 1.1% in a day. And the next day — zero. This is not "uncertainty." This is a pause before the jump. And the jump will most likely be downward.
Timeline and Context
Key date: May 25, 4:49 PM Moscow time. At that moment, the index crashed to 2,598.26 points. The reason: a statement by the Russian Foreign Ministry. Sergey Lavrov officially announced that Russian troops are beginning "systematic and consistent strikes on targets located in Kyiv." The US and other countries are recommended to evacuate diplomatic personnel.
The market reacted instantly. Shares of NOVATEK fell by 3.7%, VTB by 3.2%, Severstal by 2.8%, and Rusal by 2.8%. This decline in blue chips is not a speculative correction. It is fear.
The next day, May 26, at 8:01 AM Moscow time, the index rose slightly to 2,601.23 points. But this is a technical bounce amid hopes for US trading (S&P 500 futures +0.65%) and oil recovery after a 7% drop the previous day. No internal growth drivers. The market simply exhaled.
Who Wins and Who Loses
Losers: speculators betting on "peace hopes." Throughout April and May, the index swung from 2,476 to 3,343 points — a corridor of 867 points. Every news about US-Iran talks or a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy gave +3–5% in a day, and the next took it all back. Speculators who bet on "if peace comes tomorrow" have burned out multiple times. Now they sit in cash.
Winners: "safe havens." The Moscow Exchange total return index for 2025 has gone to zero, while the blue-chip index has gained. Investors who held Sberbank, NOVATEK, and Polyus have realized real income. The trend toward conservatism is gaining strength. In conditions where any news headline can crash the market by 1–2%, money flows into predictability.
What the Media Are Not Saying
First: the weak opening on May 26 is not "uncertainty" but a lack of liquidity. On the morning of May 26, trading volumes were abnormally low. There are no buyers. Sellers are also frozen because selling at such volumes would crash the price by 5–10%. The market is frozen, and this freeze is the worst possible signal.
Second: Brent crude fell almost 7% on May 25, but the index fell only 1.1%. Why? Because the Russian market no longer feels oil. The economy has become closed, export flows are blocked, and the ruble is artificially strengthened (71.5 per dollar on May 26). The link between oil and the market is severed. This means traditional forecasting models do not work. The market moves only on geopolitics and domestic taxes.
Third, the most non-obvious: the next important date is May 28. On this day, exporters must transfer personal income tax, insurance premiums, mineral extraction tax, VAT, and excise taxes to the budget. The payment volume is about 0.9–1.0 trillion rubles. To get rubles, exporters sell foreign currency. This creates artificial demand for rubles and temporarily strengthens the exchange rate. But this is not a "fundamental strengthening" but an accounting trick. Once taxes are paid, demand for rubles drops. I expect the ruble to weaken to 73–74 per dollar as early as the first week of June.
Forecast: Next 30 Days and 90 Days
30 days. Until the end of June, the Moscow Exchange index will remain in the range of 2,550–2,700 points. There are no growth drivers. The tax period on May 28 will provide temporary support to the ruble, but not to the stock market. The dividend season will begin in July — stocks may get a short-term boost before the ex-dividend dates. But payouts will be 20–25% lower than last year, so the effect will be weak.
90 days. By the end of August, the Central Bank will likely cut the key rate by another 1–2 percentage points. This will be the first real positive for the market: a rate cut makes deposits less attractive and gradually brings interest back to stocks. However, the recovery will be slow. My baseline forecast: the Moscow Exchange index by September will be around 2,750–2,850 points — 5–10% above current levels.
But the key risk: geopolitics. If the escalation around Kyiv continues and Iran talks collapse, the index could fall to 2,400–2,450 points within days.
Editorial Forecast
Asset: Moscow Exchange Index (IMOEX2).
Direction: Decline in the next 24–72 hours. The weak opening on May 26 does not cancel the negative momentum set on May 25. The index will likely test the 2,570–2,580 point level by the end of the week.
Key Levels: Support at 2,570 points, resistance at 2,620 points. If support breaks, the next target is 2,550.
Confidence Level: Medium (50% decline to 2,570, 30% sideways, 20% bounce above 2,620).
Main Risk: A sudden announcement of progress in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine (any positive signal) could trigger a speculative bounce of 3–4%, completely invalidating the decline forecast. But the probability of such an announcement in the next 72 hours is estimated at less than 15%.
— Editorial Team
