Russian indices rise on geopolitical hopes and oil above $100
The MOEX Index rose to 2,690 points on hopes of easing geopolitical tensions and Brent prices exceeding $107 per barrel.
Analytical Note
Topic: The Rise in Russian Indices — Why It's a Trap, Not a Reversal
Date: May 13, 2026
Author: Independent Analyst
The Gist: What's Really Happening
The MOEX Index rose to 2,690 points. On the surface, it's a long-awaited bounce after nine weeks of continuous decline. The reality: we are witnessing a classic technical rebound on ultra-low volumes of around 30 billion rubles, with most institutional players still away after the May holidays. This is a ghost market. The rise is not due to mass buying, but because sellers who were locking in losses before the long weekend have temporarily disappeared. Andrey Zatsepin from Alor Broker puts it bluntly: yesterday's move should not be considered indicative.
The key non-obvious insight: the geopolitical optimism driving the rebound is based solely on the interpretation of one statement by the Russian president about the "imminent end of the Ukrainian conflict" and rumors of possible EU negotiations. But this is exactly the kind of rhetoric the market has been digesting since 2023, with the same result: a 3-5% bounce, then a return to original levels when no specifics emerge. Alexander Timofeev from F-Broker notes that such moves are "more speculation on a very thin market than signals of a transition to another stage."
Timeline and Context
On May 7-8, 2026, ahead of the May holidays in Russia, the market crashed to the support zone of 2,590-2,610 points on the MOEX Index. The reasons were threefold: the high key rate of the Central Bank of Russia, weak economic dynamics, and a complete lack of visible prospects for resolving the Ukrainian conflict. Investors moved into defensive instruments, primarily bonds, locking in yields unavailable from dividend yields on stocks.
On May 9, the Russian president made a statement about the imminent end of the conflict. This triggered a short squeeze, as speculators closed short positions accumulated before the holidays. Shorts were closed aggressively, creating an illusion of demand. Simultaneously, Iran and the US exchanged another round of "unacceptable" proposals for a peaceful settlement, pushing Brent above $107 per barrel.
On May 12-13, the market returned to trading. The MOEX Index rose to 2,690 points, but volumes remain low. The key resistance zone is in the 2,690-2,715 range, and experts at BCS World of Investments are already warning of the risk of a pullback from this level.
Who Wins and Who Loses
Winners:
Short-term speculators who managed to close short positions on the bounce. Holders of oil assets get a temporary premium from Brent prices above $105. The Russian budget also benefits: with current commodity prices and a weak ruble, foreign currency revenue is converted at a favorable rate, replenishing reserves.
Losers:
Investors who mistake the current bounce for a trend reversal and increase long positions. The risk of falling into a bull trap is critically high. Particularly vulnerable are holders of steel stocks and Gazprom — they led the bounce, but these securities are fundamentally among the weakest. Their bounce is a result of being extremely oversold, not of improved business performance.
A separate category of losers: retail investors who follow media headlines. The index rise is presented as "optimism" and "hopes for negotiations," while professional managers are simultaneously saying: "We continue to view the domestic stock market pessimistically and believe that new investment resources should be directed to bonds."
What the Media Isn't Saying
First: The MOEX Index bounce started not from 2,690, but from critical support at 2,600, a break of which would have meant a technical catastrophe. The market rebounded not because it became attractive, but because further decline was dangerous for the entire infrastructure. Margin calls, cascading position closures, broker problems — that's the real picture this bounce prevented.
Second: The Iran factor as a driver of oil prices is unreliable. The IEA has already lowered its global oil demand forecast for 2026 by 1.3 million barrels per day due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This means expensive oil is not the result of demand growth, but of a supply shock. Supply shocks historically resolve with sharp price drops once a political solution is found. Goldman Sachs forecasts a possible update of Brent's historical highs to $150, but that's a prolonged war scenario, not a base case.
Third: The Central Bank of Russia's key rate hasn't gone away. Analysts at Veles Capital directly state: May may pass under downward pressure due to lost hopes for aggressive rate cuts. At its last meeting, the Central Bank gave the market a "cold shower," and now no one expects rapid easing. High money costs are squeezing corporate profits, and thus the growth potential of stocks.
Fourth: The ruble may continue to strengthen. The yuan-ruble pair broke a multi-year sideways range to the downside, with a technical target of around 10 rubles per yuan. The dollar could move to 70 rubles. For exporters whose shares trade on the MOEX, this means a squeeze on ruble revenue and margins.
Forecast: Next 30 Days and 90 Days
30 days (until mid-June 2026):
The MOEX Index will not be able to hold above 2,715 points. The resistance range of 2,690-2,715 will be tested but not broken. After a failed assault, a pullback to 2,600-2,620 will begin. The key risk is the absence of real progress in geopolitical settlement. If no concrete documents or official statements about the start of negotiations appear in May, the market will reverse.
Brent oil will remain in the $100-110 range. The Trump-Xi summit in Beijing on May 13-14 could provide a temporary downward impulse if joint efforts to de-escalate with Iran are announced. However, the probability of breakthrough agreements is low.
The ruble will continue to strengthen amid an inflow of foreign currency revenue from expensive oil and weak demand for currency from importers. The target is 73-74 rubles per dollar in the short term, with possible movement to 70.
90 days (until mid-August 2026):
The moment of truth arrives. If the geopolitical situation does not improve, the Russian stock market will return to early May levels or lower. Experts forecast a weakening of the ruble in the second half of the year to the 80-85 range per dollar, which will partially support exporters but not compensate for the overall negative backdrop.
A non-obvious scenario: if the conflict with Iran is resolved, oil could fall below $90 per barrel by year-end, as forecast by the US Energy Department. For the Russian market, this would be a disaster, as the oil premium would simultaneously disappear and fundamental problems would be exposed: high rates, weak domestic demand, lack of access to international capital.
A separate risk: the return of full-scale hostilities between the US and Iran. In this scenario, Brent would move to $130-150, which would briefly support Russian indices but create risks of a global recession and a new wave of volatility across all markets.
Final conclusion: the current rise in the MOEX Index is not the start of a bull market, but a technical pause in a bear trend. Institutional investors understand this and are not increasing positions. A retail investor buying now in hopes of a geopolitical breakthrough is playing Russian roulette with a chamber loaded by the history of the last three years — where every expectation-driven bounce ended in a new low. Until ironclad confirmations of the negotiation process appear, the recommendation remains the same: bonds, defensive assets, minimum stocks.
— Editorial Team
