Trump Leans Toward Resuming Military Strikes on Iran's Nuclear Program
According to sources, the US president considers Tehran's response to the settlement unacceptable and is discussing escalation options, including strikes on undamaged targets and escorting vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
Signals from Washington about President Trump's readiness to resume military strikes on Iran are not just another round of escalation. This is a bifurcation point, beyond which the entire security architecture of the Persian Gulf, along with the global nuclear non-proliferation regime, could collapse completely.
The Essence: What Is Really Happening
Behind the public image of a president who calls Iran's response "completely unacceptable" lies deep frustration within American diplomacy. The White House has realized that its attempt to replicate the "deal of the century" in the style of Trump's first term has failed.
The Iranians outplayed the Americans in the Islamabad negotiations. While the US pressured Tehran for a complete dismantlement of nuclear infrastructure, the Iranian delegation put forward counter-demands that Washington considers unfeasible: an immediate cessation of conflict on all fronts, written security guarantees from the US, and—most painful for Trump—full lifting of sanctions and unblocking of Iranian ports to resume oil exports. Only after that is Tehran ready to discuss a return to the parameters of the nuclear deal.
Thus, the US president's statement about "leaning toward military action" is an admission of the diplomatic track's failure. Trump's planned meeting with key security officials—Vice President Vance, Secretary of State Rubio, Pentagon chief Hegseth, and CIA Director Ratcliffe—is not just a "strategy review" but an approval of specific targets for a new wave of bombings.
Timeline and Context
The chain of events leading to this point has unfolded rapidly. On February 28, the US and Israel launched massive strikes on Iran's nuclear program. Tehran's response was unprecedented: instead of a local reaction, the IRGC struck US allies in the Persian Gulf and effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz.
On April 8, a ceasefire was announced with Pakistani mediation. However, the truce remained extremely fragile, and negotiations stalled. In early May, the US attempted to increase pressure by launching Operation Project Freedom to militarily escort tankers, but it was scrapped within less than 48 hours. As I noted earlier, the reason was Saudi Arabia and Kuwait's refusal to provide airspace for US aircraft—the Arabian monarchies did not want to become targets for Iranian missiles while protecting vessels that might sail under competitors' flags.
Now Trump publicly states that he wants not just to resume Project Freedom but to turn it into a "broader operation." This means direct strikes on Iranian territory, targeting the 25% of identified targets that were not hit in February-March.
Who Wins and Who Loses
Iran—a paradoxical beneficiary. Yes, right now Tehran has announced its readiness to further enrich uranium to weapons-grade 90% if attacked again. However, the public demonstration of willingness to negotiate, coupled with the buildup of highly enriched uranium stocks, makes Iran a de facto "nuclear threshold state." Every day without a deal increases Iran's arsenal of fissile material.
Israel also benefits. According to leaks from the administration, Israeli officials are actively lobbying for permission to conduct a special operation to seize Iran's enriched uranium. Netanyahu seems confident he can pressure Trump, who is currently hesitant due to the high risks of such a raid. However, the mere discussion of this scenario shifts the "Overton window" toward direct Israeli involvement in sabotage on Iranian soil.
China loses. Trump's visit to Beijing, scheduled for these days, will now take place against the backdrop of a threat of large-scale regional war. Beijing has repeatedly called on Tehran to reach a nuclear deal, but to no avail. Now the Chinese leadership finds itself caught between two fires: war would disrupt oil supplies through Hormuz, but open support for Iran would turn the entire Arab world and the West against China. Trump will use this visit to pressure Xi Jinping, demanding that Beijing force Iran to capitulate in negotiations.
What the Media Are Not Saying
Insider view: uranium blackmail as a business model. Most analysts miss the key economic aspect of Iran's nuclear program.
Several sources familiar with the details of the negotiations claim that Tehran's demand for "asset unfreezing" has a very specific monetary value. The Iranians insist on unblocking $27 billion frozen in accounts in South Korea, Japan, and Luxembourg. But another $12 billion is an informal credit that Tehran has already drawn from Beijing against future oil supplies. If the deal with the US falls through, Iran will have to pay China with uranium. According to Western intelligence, the transfer of 12 kg of uranium enriched to 60% from the Natanz facility to a warehouse in Bushehr has already been recorded, from where the cargo could be shipped by sea.
Tehran has created a hybrid financial-nuclear pyramid, where access to weapons-grade uranium becomes a currency for barter transactions with sanctioned players. That is why Trump is discussing strikes on "25% of targets that have not yet been attacked"—it is not about centrifuges, but about secret warehouses where this uranium is presumably already packaged.
Forecast: The Next 30 Days and 90 Days
Next 30 days (by mid-June 2026). Military operation is inevitable. Trump will return from China on May 15-16, and within a week after his return—with a probability of over 80%—an order will follow for precision strikes on Iranian uranium storage sites and IRGC missile bases on the coast. This will not be a full-scale "shock and awe" campaign; it will be a series of "surgical" strikes aimed at demonstrating resolve to Congress ahead of the midterm elections in November. Tehran's response will be asymmetric: escalation in cyberspace and attacks on transport hubs in the UAE. Brent oil will spike to $130 per barrel.
Next 90 days (by mid-August 2026). By this time, Iran will likely conduct a test detonation of a nuclear device at the Semnan test site. Not to build an arsenal, but to demonstrate its threshold status. This would be analogous to the North Korean path: conduct a test, declare itself a "de facto nuclear power," but promise not to transfer technology to third countries. The world will face a fait accompli. The NPT regime will finally collapse. Saudi Arabia will immediately activate its contracts with Pakistan for the supply of ready-made warheads. The Middle East will turn into a region of multiple nuclear players, and the US will have to choose between endless war and accepting the Iranian bomb. Trump, mindful of his experience with Kim Jong Un, will likely choose the latter path, but by then the price of oil could exceed $150 per barrel, and the global economy will slide into a recession comparable to 2008.
— Editorial Team
