Central Bank of Russia Raises Dollar Rate Above 71 Rubles, Euro Continues to Fall
Official exchange rates for May 23, set by the Central Bank of Russia, showed mixed dynamics: the US currency strengthened by nearly 42 kopecks to 71.21 rubles, while the euro fell by more than 73 kopecks to 82.54 rubles.
Dollar at 71 Rubles: Official Figure vs. Over-the-Counter Reality
The ruble has strengthened to levels not seen since February 2023. But behind the Central Bank's official rates lies a market where the dollar is worth a very different amount. The gap between the "tax" dollar and the "real" dollar has reached dangerous levels.
[The Gist]: What's Really Happening
The official dollar rate for May 23 is 71.2090 rubles, up 42 kopecks from the previous day. The euro, meanwhile, fell by 73 kopecks to 82.5445 rubles. The yuan rose to 10.4823 rubles.
At first glance, this is a routine daily adjustment. But the context makes this figure anomalous.
"Insider view" — the dollar at 71 rubles is not a market price. It is a calculated construct that the Central Bank pieces together from the over-the-counter market. Since June 13, 2024, when the Moscow Exchange came under US and UK sanctions, exchange trading in dollars and euros in Russia has ceased.
How does the Central Bank now determine the rate? It collects data on actual transactions between banks involving at least three different banks. If there are no transactions, the rate is calculated via cross rates, for example, through the yuan.
What does this mean for the average person? It means that the exchange rate at a currency exchange office can differ from the official rate by 5-10 rubles, and the spread between buying and selling currency at banks has increased from the usual 2-4 rubles to 10-29 rubles in the first days after the sanctions. Although the situation has now stabilized, the "tax" dollar and the "real" dollar are two different currencies.
Timeline and Context
Key date: June 13, 2024. The US added the Moscow Exchange, NSD, and NCC to the sanctions list. Trading in dollars and euros on the exchange was halted. The Central Bank switched to a new mechanism for determining rates.
May 2026. The ruble is showing record strengthening. As recently as May 7, the official dollar rate was 75.22 rubles. In three weeks, the ruble strengthened by 4 rubles — about 5.3%.
Reasons for the strengthening:
- Oil windfall revenues. The price of Russia's export oil, Urals, soared to $95 per barrel in April after $77 in March and $41-45 in January-February. In May, it remains around $90 per barrel. Meanwhile, the cutoff price in the budget rule is only $59.
- Exporters' foreign currency earnings. In April, the largest exporters tripled their currency sales on the domestic market — to $7.2 billion, up from $2.4 billion in March.
- Key rate of 14.5% makes ruble savings attractive and cools demand for imports.
- Tax period. Until May 28, exporters are more actively selling currency to settle with the budget.
Restraining factors: From May 8 to June 4, the Ministry of Finance is buying currency and gold under the budget rule — about 1.18 billion rubles daily. This puts slight downward pressure on the ruble.
Who Wins and Who Loses
The state wins. A strong ruble reduces inflationary pressure (annual inflation slowed to 5.56% at the start of May) and makes imports cheaper, including critically important ones.
The Ministry of Finance wins. The budget rule is working at its limit: the cutoff price is $59 per barrel, while the actual price is $90-95. Windfall revenues go to the National Welfare Fund.
Experienced currency traders win, who understand the gap between the official and "real" rates and profit from arbitrage between different market segments.
Banks lose (in the short term). They had to urgently restructure their currency operations. Some brokers temporarily blocked "toxic" currency in client accounts.
Ordinary citizens who need cash currency lose. The spread has widened, and availability has decreased. Buying a large amount (tens of thousands of dollars) at a bank may require a pre-order.
Exporters lose (in terms of profit). They receive revenue in dollars but pay ruble costs at the strengthened rate. Margins are squeezed.
Paradoxically, the ruble strengthened precisely after the sanctions against the Moscow Exchange. Typically, sanctions lead to a fall in the national currency. But here the reverse mechanism worked: some holders of "toxic" dollars and euros began to get rid of them, increasing the supply of currency on the market.
What the Media Aren't Saying
Non-obvious insight #1: The real effective exchange rate of the ruble has soared by 37% since the end of 2024 — a historical high.
In April, the real effective exchange rate of the ruble rose by 3.4%. Since the end of 2024, the increase has been about 37%. The ruble has been above this level only for a few months in 2013 and in the summer of 2022.
Why is this important? Because a strong ruble is not only "good" for inflation but also "bad" for the budget. At a rate below 70 rubles per dollar, oil revenues in ruble terms begin to fall, despite high dollar prices. The Ministry of Finance understands this — and will buy currency more actively as soon as the tax period ends.
Non-obvious insight #2: The yuan has become a "bridge" for determining the dollar rate — and this creates a new vulnerability.
After the sanctions, the dollar is officially traded only on the over-the-counter market. But when there is insufficient data on direct transactions, the Central Bank calculates the dollar rate via the cross rate to the yuan.
What does this mean? Now the ruble-to-dollar rate indirectly depends on:
- The ruble-to-yuan rate (which is traded on the exchange)
- The yuan-to-dollar rate on the global market
This adds a new layer of volatility. If the Chinese regulator sharply changes the yuan rate (and it does), this will instantly affect the "official" dollar rate in Russia. The Russian Federation has lost direct control over its main currency benchmark.
Non-obvious insight #3: The spread between the official and real rates will reach 5-8 rubles by the end of summer.
Currently, the official dollar rate is 71.21 rubles. But at banks, cash dollars are sold at 74-78 rubles, depending on the bank and amount. The difference of 3-7 rubles is a premium for "toxicity" and the cost of cash currency logistics.
According to insiders from three major banks, by the end of summer, if the ruble weakens to 75-80 official rubles per dollar, the cash rate could be 82-88 rubles. The spread will widen to 7-8 rubles — a historical high for post-Soviet Russia.
This means that those holding cash dollars will receive a premium over the official rate. And those trying to convert rubles into cash currency will pay the maximum price.
Forecast: Next 30 Days and 90 Days
Next 30 days (until June 24, 2026): The tax period ends on May 28. Exporters will stop actively selling currency. At the same time, the holiday season will increase demand for cash currency (logistical difficulties do not cancel Russians' desire to take dollars abroad). The rate will retreat to 73-75 rubles per dollar officially, and the cash dollar to 77-80 rubles.
Key factor — oil. If the Strait of Hormuz is reopened (negotiations with Iran are close to an agreement), oil will fall to $70-75 per barrel, and the ruble will follow it down.
Next 90 days (until August 24, 2026): The summer weakening of the ruble is a structural, not speculative, process. Imports are growing, and export revenue from oil may decline with de-escalation in the Middle East. Additionally, the Central Bank is expected to cut the key rate in the second half of the year (forecast — to 12.5% by year-end), which will reduce the attractiveness of ruble assets.
My forecast: the dollar officially at 77-82 rubles by the end of August. Cash dollar at 82-88 rubles. This is not a collapse but a return to the "new normal" after an anomalously strong May.
Risks: If negotiations with Iran fail, oil will go to $120+, and the ruble could strengthen even further — to 67-69 rubles officially. But this scenario is less than 30% likely.
Editorial Forecast
- Asset: US Dollar (USDRUB over-the-counter/official) / Direction: Spread between rates to widen in the next 48-72 hours.
- Key levels: Official rate — testing 72 rubles by the end of the week. Cash rate at major banks — range 74-78 rubles. Spread to widen to 3-5 rubles as the tax period ends.
- Confidence level: Medium.
- Main risk to the forecast: If US-Iran negotiations conclude with a ceasefire memorandum in the coming days (probability, according to Axios, has increased), oil will crash by 15-20%, the ruble will follow, and the dollar officially could end up at 68-69 rubles, completely breaking the current weakening trend.
— Editorial Team
