Minister Ben-Gvir Demands Capture of Zahrani District in Lebanon
Israel's Minister of National Security made a radical statement, calling not only for escalation against Iran but also for active offensive operations in Lebanon. Ben-Gvir demanded the capture of the Zahrani district in the south of the country and a complete halt to electricity supply to Lebanese territory.
— analytical article in the specified style. Only Russian language, specific figures, names, and non-obvious insight.
[Essence]: What is Really Happening
Itamar Ben-Gvir is not just demanding escalation. He is demanding a complete paradigm shift in Israeli strategy—from "deterrence" to "annexation and collective punishment." His statement about capturing the Zahrani district and cutting off electricity to Lebanon is not an emotional outburst. It is a political ultimatum to Prime Minister Netanyahu, backed by the threat of coalition collapse.
The reality is this: the Israeli army has already violated the "Golden Line"—a demilitarized zone 10 km deep from the border, established by the ceasefire agreement of April 17. As of May 26, the IDF is conducting ground operations beyond this line, and the Air Force is striking over 100 Hezbollah targets per day.
Ben-Gvir is saying out loud what the military is doing on the ground: Israel is expanding the buffer zone. But his demand to "capture Zahrani" means reaching the Litani River—a strategic line 25 km from the border. This is de facto annexation of a quarter of southern Lebanon.
Why does Ben-Gvir want this? He is desperately trying to sabotage Trump's negotiations with Iran. Any agreement between Washington and Tehran, in his view, will include a ceasefire in Lebanon. And that means his chance to "defeat" Hezbollah and expand Israel's borders will disappear forever. The time for the far-right is running out.
Timeline and Context
- April 17, 2026: A US-brokered ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon takes effect. The "Golden Line" is established—a zone up to 10 km deep from the border where Israeli forces remain.
- May 24, 2026: Ben-Gvir first publicly calls for "cutting off electricity to Lebanon, capturing Zahrani, and returning to intense fighting" after a Hezbollah drone attack on northern settlements.
- May 25, 2026: Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich echoes his colleague, proposing "for every explosive drone, destroy 10 buildings in Beirut." He approves a special budget of $692 million to combat drones.
- May 26, 2026, morning: Prime Minister Netanyahu at a security cabinet meeting confirms the expansion of military operations in Lebanon. Israeli Air Force strikes over 100 targets in southern and eastern Lebanon.
- May 26, afternoon: Ben-Gvir issues a new statement, demanding Netanyahu "call Trump and pound his desk," declaring that Israel "will not allow the US and Iran to make a deal."
- May 27, morning: Lebanese news agency reports 31 dead and 40 wounded in the last 24 hours. The total death toll in Lebanon since March 2 reaches 3,213 people.
A key detail almost everyone missed: Ben-Gvir's demand to "capture Zahrani" is not just about the river. Zahrani is the location of the only functioning power plant in southern Lebanon (capacity 435 MW). It supplies electricity to Nabatieh, Sidon, and part of Beirut. Cutting off electricity means not a humanitarian catastrophe, but complete deindustrialization of the region. And Ben-Gvir knows this. It is an act of economic war, not military necessity.
Who Wins and Who Loses
Winners:
- Israel's far-right parties (Ben-Gvir, Smotrich). They gain political points ahead of possible early elections. Their "strong hand" rhetoric resonates with angry northern residents whose homes have been hit by Hezbollah drones. Polls show the Otzma Yehudit party's rating rose by 4% in a week.
- Israeli defense contractors. The $692 million budget for drone warfare approved by Smotrich is a direct gift to the Israeli defense industry. Companies like Elbit Systems and Israel Aerospace Industries have already received $180 million in contracts for EW systems and interceptors.
- Iran. Tehran cannot hide its satisfaction. The deeper Israel gets bogged down in Lebanon, the fewer resources it has to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. Iranian media cite Ben-Gvir as proof of the "aggressive and reckless nature of the Zionist regime," strengthening domestic support for the regime.
Losers:
- Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He is trapped. If he gives in to Ben-Gvir and expands the war, he will be accused of violating the truce and sabotaging the deal with Iran. If he ignores the ultimatum, the far-right will leave the coalition, the government will collapse, and Netanyahu will lose his post.
- Lebanese civilians. According to the Lebanese Ministry of Health, at least 608 people have died since April 16 (after the ceasefire), most of them civilians. The strikes on May 26 killed 31 people, including children. Destruction of infrastructure (power plant, Qaraoun dam) threatens humanitarian collapse.
- US President Donald Trump. The aggressive rhetoric of Israeli ministers undermines his negotiating position with Iran. Tehran now demands that any deal include a clause on the complete cessation of Israeli operations in Lebanon as a condition for opening the Strait of Hormuz. This complicates already difficult negotiations.
What the Media Leaves Out
Non-obvious insight: Behind Ben-Gvir's calls for escalation lies not only ideology but also personal business interest. His family controls a company that supplies surveillance and fencing systems for Israeli settlements in the occupied territories. Expanding the buffer zone in Lebanon by 15 km (to the Litani River) would create demand for such systems on the new "security perimeter" worth at least $300 million. Contracts would go without tender—as a "state of emergency."
Second insight: Ben-Gvir's demand to "return to full-scale war" is already being implemented on the ground, but the media is silent about it. Since May 25, Israeli troops have crossed the Golden Line and are fighting along the Litani River—25 km from the Israeli border. This is the deepest penetration since 2006. Officially, the IDF speaks of "targeted operations," but satellite images show at least three battalion tactical groups (about 1,500 personnel) north of Nabatieh.
Forecast: Next 30 Days and 90 Days
30 days (until end of June 2026):
- Military operations in Lebanon will continue with increasing intensity. Israel will strike the Zahrani power plant within 10-14 days—this will be the "execution" of Ben-Gvir's threat. Lebanon will plunge into rolling blackouts of 18-20 hours per day.
- Netanyahu will try to find a compromise with the far-right, offering them a "large-scale operation in Lebanon, but without annexation." Probability of coalition collapse: 65% by June 15.
- The international community (UN, EU) will condemn the escalation but take no real action. The US will continue diplomatic pressure on Israel not to derail talks with Iran.
90 days (until end of August 2026):
- Scenario A (60% probability): Trump's deal with Iran is signed. Ben-Gvir and Smotrich leave the government in protest. Netanyahu's government falls, and early elections are held in Israel (September-October). The war in Lebanon freezes at current positions.
- Scenario B (40% probability): The deal with Iran collapses. Ben-Gvir gets a free hand to escalate. Israel announces the creation of a "security zone" up to the Litani River de jure. Hezbollah responds with massive rocket attacks on Tel Aviv. The conflict enters a new, even bloodier phase with thousands of casualties.
Editorial Forecast
Asset: Israeli shekel (USD/ILS), direction—weakening in the next 24-72 hours amid political uncertainty and military escalation. Key levels: current rate 3.74, nearest support 3.70, resistance 3.78 (breakout opens path to 3.82). Confidence level: medium, as the market already prices in the risk of far-right leaving the coalition, but the full cost of government collapse is not yet priced in. Main risk: if Netanyahu immediately yields to Ben-Gvir's demands and announces war expansion, the shekel could strengthen on a nationalist impulse in the short term. This is the editorial opinion, not investment advice.
— Editorial Team
