Analysts Forecast Up to 20 IPOs in Russia in 2026
After a lull in 2025, the Russian primary market is expected to revive, driven mainly by a key rate cut. Investor interest will be concentrated in IT, retail, and fintech, but a real boom is only possible if the rate falls below 11%.
IPO Boom in Russia: On the Verge of a New Cycle or a Delayed Scenario?
Introduction
After the dramatic lull of 2025, when the memory of the turbulent 2023–2024 seemed like distant history, the Russian primary market unexpectedly came to life. Several news items at once—a forecast by Expert RA of up to 20 IPOs in 2026, a Finance Ministry statement on plans to privatize 14 state-owned companies, and news about Fabrika PO preparing for a stock exchange listing—created the effect of pent-up steam ready to burst out.
But is this forecast so clear-cut? Is a key rate cut alone enough to trigger a wave of listings? Or is this just another flash of optimism followed by disappointment?
The answer lies in macroeconomics, corporate strategies, and, importantly, the psychology of both issuers and investors.
Event Details and Timeline
From Decline to Revival: Figures and Forecasts
The Russian IPO market has gone through several dramatic cycles in recent years. The golden age was 2020–2021, when, amid low rates and an influx of foreign capital, 11 companies went public, raising 444 billion rubles. Then came the shock of 2022—just one listing (Whoosh) for 2.1 billion rubles.
In 2023–2024, the market adapted to the new reality: foreign investors were replaced by retail players (their share in equity trading volume reached 82%), but these were predominantly small and mid-cap companies—22 deals with a total volume of 124 billion rubles.
2025 became a cooling point: only four IPOs for 37 billion rubles, of which 31.7 billion came from DOM.RF. The reason was the Central Bank's tight monetary policy, making deposits with yields of 20–23% more attractive than stocks.
What Does 2026 Promise?
According to a forecast by the analytical agency Expert RA, if the key rate falls to 13–13.5%, up to 20 companies could go public, with a total raising of 50–100 billion rubles. The Finance Ministry, in turn, announced plans to list shares of 14 state-owned companies (plus 2–3 SPOs).
The sectoral focus, according to analysts, will shift toward IT and AI technologies, retail/e-commerce, and fintech.
Impact and Significance (for the World / Industry / Society)
For the World: Russia as a Separate Universe
In a global context, the Russian IPO market remains isolated: foreign investors are absent, and settlements are in rubles. However, this does not make the events less significant. The success or failure of large listings (e.g., potential IPOs of SIBUR or Rosatom) will signal to global funds assessing how viable the Russian economy remains outside Western financial infrastructure.
For the Industry: Market Structure Transformation
The main change in recent years is the shift in dominant investor. Institutions have been replaced by retail investors, for whom not only numbers but also marketing, brand story, and accessibility of analysis matter.
This makes the market more volatile but also more democratic. At the same time, a problem arises: most deals in preparation have a small ticket—2–5 billion rubles, which does not attract large funds.
"Deals of 2 billion rubles, I'm afraid, will not attract institutional investors at all," bne IntelliNews quotes Eduard Kharin, an analyst at Alfa Capital.
To achieve Vladimir Putin's goal (market capitalization should reach 66% of GDP by 2030), 30 companies the size of Gazprom or Sberbank are needed—a fantastic task without resorting to the printing press or lifting sanctions.
For Society: New Opportunities and Risks
For retail investors, the IPO boom means more choices. But the risk also grows: in the pursuit of new stories, one can stumble upon overvalued assets.
"Any company that goes public for the first time seeks to sell itself AS EXPENSIVELY AS POSSIBLE. So when you participate in an IPO, remember that the shareholders themselves want exactly the same," analysts warn.
Reactions of Key Players
Optimists: Expert RA, Finance Ministry, Sberbank, BBI Capital
Pavel Bilenko, managing partner at BBI Capital, states directly: "We are on the verge of an IPO boom." He sees the key driver as the rate cut, which signals companies to start preparing.
The Finance Ministry, relying on the successful experience of DOM.RF, believes in the plan for 14 state-owned companies. Sberbank forecasts at least five listings, while VTB reports more than ten companies preparing.
Skeptics: Rikom-Trust, BCS, Some Experts
Dmitry Tselishchev from Rikom-Trust cools the ardor: "It is unlikely that 2026 will be a boom year." In his opinion, the key rate must fall below 11%—only then will deposits stop outperforming stock returns.
Huseyn Rzayev from BCS stated: "There will not be 20 deals this year" under current conditions, as the rate of 15.5% remains above the neutral level of 12%.
Alexey Timofeev, president of NAUFOR, adds that the market capitalization target is difficult to achieve without lifting sanctions and attracting foreign investment.
Issuers: Who Is in Line?
The list of potential candidates is impressive and includes both blue chips and niche players:
- Giants: SIBUR (capitalization ~3 trillion rubles, listing possible on the Eastern Exchange).
- IT and AI: VK Tech, MTC Web Services, Nanosoft (analog of Autodesk), Fabrika PO (FabricaONE.AI).
- Retail and Consumer Sector: VinLab (alcohol retailer No. 1), Sutochno.ru, Cosmos Hotel Group.
- State-Owned Companies: Russian Railways, Russian Post, VEB.RF, Rosatom, Rostec.
- Others: BCS Holding (broker), RTK-DC (data centers), Evraz (metallurgy).
Forecast and Conclusions
Base Scenario (55% probability): Moderate Activity
Provided the key rate actually falls in 2026 to 13–13.5% (as the Central Bank forecasts in its medium-term outlook), the market will see 10–15 IPOs with a total volume of ~70–80 billion rubles. This is not the boom of 2021, but a significant revival after the disastrous 2025.
The first to go public will be companies that have already completed preparation and jurisdiction changes—Nanosoft, VinLab, BCS Holding, subsidiaries of AFK Sistema (Medsi, Binnopharm).
Pessimistic Scenario (30% probability): Rate Stuck Above 14%
If inflation does not slow to 4–5%, the Central Bank will be forced to keep the rate around 14–15% longer than expected. In this case, the IPO window will remain half-closed—5–7 deals, mostly small and with a large discount.
Optimistic Scenario (15% probability): Rate < 11% and Geopolitical Détente
If by the end of 2026 the rate falls below 11% and progress is made in sanctions negotiations, the market could indeed reach historical records in deal count. But this scenario looks least likely today.
Main Conclusion
The Russian IPO market is indeed on the verge of a new cycle. But the nature of this cycle will be determined not so much by companies' desire or even the rate cut, but by the speed and sustainability of that cut.
"A real boom will only happen when the rate is below 11%," analysts summarize. And that is more a story for 2027 than 2026.
Nevertheless, the window of opportunity for IPOs is already opening. Companies that seize the moment and offer investors a fair valuation and transparent structure will be able to list successfully this year. The rest will have to wait until 2027, when competition for investor attention will become even tougher.
— Editorial Team
