US Proposes Additional Duties of 10% or More for Dozens of Trading Partners
The Trump administration announced plans to impose additional tariffs of 10% on Canada, Mexico, Taiwan, and the UK, and 12.5% on China, Japan, India, South Korea, and other countries. The investigation followed proceedings on alleged use of forced labor, and the new duties will not take effect immediately but will be subject to public comment and hearings starting July 7.
Analytical Article: Trade Wars 2.0 — Why the New US Tariffs Are Scarier Than the Old Ones and Who Is Really in the Crosshairs
Author: Independent Financial Analyst (Insider Perspective)
[The Gist]: What Is Really Happening
What the media presents as "the US administration proposed new tariffs" is actually a fundamental overhaul of the entire global trade law system. On June 2, 2026, the USTR released the results of an investigation into 60 countries under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, and this is not just "another round of tariffs" — it is the legal equivalent of a nuclear bomb in trade.
Why does this matter? Because the previous round of tariffs was struck down by the Supreme Court in February 2026 as illegal (the president exceeded his authority under the 1977 IEEPA). The Trump administration took a legal knockout and was forced to temporarily impose a 10% "global tariff" under Section 122, which expires on July 24, as its validity is limited to 150 days. The new round is an attempt to build a permanent, legally protected tariff wall, relying on a precedent that survived court challenges: the very tariffs on China from Trump's first term.
And here is what is truly frightening: these tariffs target not specific sectors (like steel or aluminum), but all goods from 60 countries, without exception, unless the product falls under a narrow list of exclusions. 10% for the first group (14 countries/regions) and 12.5% for the second group (46 countries). This is a return to the "total tariff" policy that the Supreme Court rebelled against, just under a different guise.
But the main insight that everyone misses: This is not a "trade war with China." Look at the second group (12.5%). There you find Japan, South Korea, Switzerland, Brazil, Australia. These are the US's closest allies in the G7 and OECD. If China is a traditional opponent, then tearing up free trade agreements with South Korea (KORUS) or pressuring Japan at a time when they just agreed to increase defense spending and F-35 purchases is a breakdown of the entire US alliance system in Asia.
Timeline and Context
To understand why this decision will inevitably lead to court challenges and market chaos, we need to look at the timeline of events over the past four months.
| Date | Event | Market Significance |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | US Supreme Court rules IEEPA tariffs illegal | Devaluation of previous tariff round, start of lawsuits for refunds. |
| March 2026 | USTR launches Section 301 investigation (forced labor) | Preparation of legal justification for new wave of tariffs. |
| May 2026 | Court of International Trade rules "temporary 10% tariffs" illegal (but allows continued collection pending appeal) | Creates a window of uncertainty until July 24, when these tariffs expire. |
| June 2, 2026 | USTR publishes investigation results and proposes new 10%/12.5% tariffs | Direct replacement for expiring tariffs, threatens 60 countries. |
| June 22, 2026 | Deadline to submit requests for hearings | First indicator of how many large corporations (Apple, Toyota, Samsung) will start lobbying for exclusions. |
| July 7, 2026 | Start of public hearings | Likely start of market volatility, key date for traders. |
| July 24, 2026 | Expiration of "temporary 10% tariffs" | Deadline by which the US must either impose new duties or be left empty-handed. Market shock inevitable in any scenario. |
The media now writes: "Trump threatens tariffs." These are not threats. This is a schedule of the inevitable. The temporary tariffs expire on July 24. If new ones are not in place by then, the administration will lose billions in revenue and show weakness ahead of the November elections. They are forced to push this through. Legal precedents under Section 301 (Reagan vs. Japan in the 80s, Trump vs. China in 2018) show that courts are very reluctant to overturn such measures.
Who Wins and Who Loses
Losers — all global supply chains. Particularly hard hit will be Japanese automakers (Toyota, Honda — facing 12.5% on top of existing 2.5% on cars) and South Korean chip and electronics manufacturers (Samsung, SK Hynix). But there is a less obvious loser: the UK. London was so eager to strike a new trade deal with the US after Brexit, yet ended up in the 10% category for "ineffective enforcement."
Winners — US domestic producers. Companies that already have factories in the US and do not rely on imports from Asia. US automakers (Ford, GM) gain an advantage over Toyota/Honda. Domestic logistics (railroads, trucking) — demand for domestic transport will rise instead of imports. Defense contractors (Lockheed Martin, RTX) — their products (aerospace) fall under exemptions, and they continue to receive contracts while foreign competitors pay duties.
Also worth noting: the category of "raw materials not available in the US" (e.g., some rare earth metals, nickel, cobalt). They are exempted to avoid crippling US industry. But machinery, chemicals, plastics, and textiles are hit. This is a direct blow to the German Mittelstand (SMEs) and Chinese consumer goods exports.
What the Media Isn't Saying
First insight (most important): These are killer tariffs for small businesses. Large corporations (Apple, Dell) hire armies of lawyers to secure exclusions under the guise of "strategic components" or "national security." Small businesses that import finished toys, clothing, or furniture from Vietnam or India (under 12.5%) will pay the tax in cash at customs. For a small business, 12.5% is the difference between profit and bankruptcy. This segment creates jobs in the US, and it will be destroyed.
Second insight: Retaliation will be asymmetric and painful. China has already imposed retaliatory tariffs on US goods. But Europe and Japan cannot simply strike back because their GDP heavily depends on exports to the US. Instead, they will attack US "tax-free" sectors: digital services taxes on Google, Facebook, Amazon (increase rates), antitrust investigations against Boeing, and agricultural lobbying against US soybeans. Investors in FAANG should brace for bad news from Europe in September-October.
Third insight (geopolitical): The rift between the US and Europe is becoming inevitable. Germany and France have already publicly voiced objections. This pushes Europe closer to China on trade issues. If the US imposes tariffs on Europe, Europe will not help the US contain China in the chip sector. We are witnessing the beginning of fragmentation into three trade blocs: the US (with its satellites), China (with Russia and the Global South), and Europe (caught in between). This reduces the effectiveness of sanctions and increases the cost of capital.
Forecast: Next 30 Days and 90 Days
Next 30 days (until mid-July):
- Battle for exclusions. Stocks of companies that can prove their critical components (chips, medical equipment) are not made in the US will rally 5-10%. Stocks of companies importing mass consumer goods from Asia (retail chains like Target, Walmart) will drop 5-7% on margin compression expectations.
- Dollar strengthening. The dollar will continue to strengthen as importers need more dollars to pay duties, and the Fed will not cut rates due to the inflationary effect of these tariffs. DXY heading to 100.5-101.
- Volatility in shipping. Stocks of ocean container carriers (ZIM, Maersk) will surge on rush expectations: importers will try to bring in goods before July 7 (start of hearings) or July 24 (expiration of old tariffs).
Next 90 days (until September 2026):
- High probability (75%) of these tariffs being imposed. Despite lawsuits, the Court of International Trade will likely support the executive branch given the "national security and labor" language.
- Inflationary shock in Q4 2026. The effect of 12.5% tariffs will start showing in consumer prices for electronics, clothing, and cars by October-November, just before the elections. This could shift consumer sentiment.
- German recession deepens. German exports of machinery and equipment to the US are hit (12.5%). The German DAX index could lose 7-10% from current levels by September.
Editorial Forecast
Based on current data, I will briefly formulate an editorial forecast for a specific asset.
Asset: Shares of a shipping company (ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd.), also indirectly — US railroads (Norfolk Southern, Union Pacific).
Direction: Up in the next 24–72 hours.
Key levels: ZIM — expected bounce from current $14.5 to $15.8-16.2. Railroads — up 2-3%.
Confidence level: Medium (55-60%).
Main risk to forecast: If a federal court issues a preliminary injunction against these tariffs during the hearing stage (unlikely but possible), logistics stocks could crash 15% in a day as demand for "forward shipping" disappears. However, the market is currently pricing in tariff adoption.
The editorial opinion is not an investment recommendation.
— Editorial Team
