US-Iran Talks Complicated by Uranium and Strait of Hormuz
Progress in negotiations under threat: Khamenei's directive to keep uranium inside the country and a dispute over imposing fees for ship passage through the Strait of Hormuz cloud prospects for a breakthrough agreement between the sides.
Khamenei's Directive Against the Deal: Why the Market Doesn't Believe Headlines About Talks Hitting a Snag
[The Gist]: What's Really Happening
On Friday and Saturday, the world saw two seemingly contradictory sets of headlines. On one hand — Khamenei's directive banning uranium exports and news of disputes over transit fees through Hormuz. On the other — Trump's statement that the deal is "largely agreed upon." Who is right?
As a financial analyst, I'll tell you: both are right, but with a difference in optics. Khamenei's directive from May 20 is a real document that complicates life for negotiators. But it doesn't mean the talks are collapsing. It means the price of the deal for Iran just went up, and Tehran, through intermediaries (Qatar, Pakistan, Oman), is trying to sell this new price tag to Washington.
The point is that "talks hitting a snag" is a standard stage of any serious negotiation 48 hours before the finish line. The sides publicly take the toughest possible positions to concede at the last moment exactly as much as needed for the deal, but no more. The difference here is that time is running out — May 24, and the Middle East conflict has been going on for almost three months (since February 28). Both sides are running out of patience and money.
Timeline and Context
The chain of events over the last 96 hours is a textbook example of how big deals are made.
May 20, 2026 — Reuters reports on Khamenei's directive banning the export of enriched uranium from Iran. Two Iranian sources on condition of anonymity confirm: "The Supreme Leader's directive and consensus within ruling circles is that enriched uranium stockpiles should not leave the country." That same day, Trump at the White House says the exact opposite: "No, we will get the highly enriched uranium. We will get it. We don't need it. We don't want it. We will probably destroy it after we get it."
May 20-21, 2026 — Iran's ambassador to France, Mohamad Amin-Nejad, gives an interview to Bloomberg, confirming that Iran and Oman are discussing the creation of a permanent system for collecting fees for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Sources clarify: transit fees could reach $2 million per vessel.
May 22, 2026 — Secretary of State Marco Rubio, while in India, states: "Some progress has been made" and an announcement could come in the coming days. But he immediately adds: The US insists that "Iran can never have nuclear weapons, must transfer its highly enriched uranium, and ships must be allowed free passage through the strait."
May 23, 2026 (Saturday) — Trump writes on Truth Social: the deal is "largely agreed upon, subject to finalization between the US, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and various other countries." He reports a "very good" phone call with leaders of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain, as well as with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.
May 23-24, 2026 — The New York Times publishes a piece with three Iranian officials on condition of anonymity: Tehran has agreed to a memorandum of understanding that would halt hostilities on all fronts and open the Strait of Hormuz. Key detail: Iran agreed to "give up its existing stockpiles of highly enriched uranium" — but the details of exactly how this will be done are deferred to the next round of nuclear program talks.
Non-obvious insight: The contradiction between Khamenei's directive (no uranium export) and Iran's agreement to "give up uranium" according to NYT is not a lie. It is the difference between "export" and "give up." Iran could agree to dilute uranium to 3.67% on its territory under IAEA supervision — that would be a "give up of weapons-grade material" without physical export. Khamenei's directive specifically bans export, not dilution. This is a classic Iranian trick that allows Khamenei to save face with the domestic audience, and Trump to declare victory.
Who Wins and Who Loses
Trump wins — in the short term. A president who promised to open the strait and lower gas prices gets a political victory ahead of the November midterms. Even if the deal is temporary (60 days, as previously reported), that's enough for oil prices to drop by $5-8 per barrel and for voters to feel relief at the pump.
Iran wins economically. Unblocking the strait means resuming exports of 1.5-2 million barrels of oil per day. At current prices (Brent ~$105), that's about $150-200 million in revenue per day. Additionally, according to sources, the US has agreed to unfreeze $25 billion in Iranian assets. For an economy that has been in recession since February, this is a breather.
Oman wins. The country becomes the central negotiator on the "transit fee" issue, which will determine the future of shipping in the region. Oman gains leverage and likely commissions from each deal.
Israel loses, and that's the main intrigue. Prime Minister Netanyahu stated he would not consider the war over until enriched uranium is removed from Iran and ballistic missile capabilities are dismantled. In the current deal, uranium likely stays in Iran (albeit diluted), and the missile program is not discussed at all. Trump, according to Reuters, assured Israel that uranium would be exported. If the final document has different wording, relations between the allies could suffer seriously.
Quiet loser — European gas consumers. If the deal involves opening the strait but Iran retains the right to charge transit fees (as discussed with Oman), the final price of gas for Europe will increase by the cost of the "Hormuz tax." At a port fee of $2 million and 20 million barrels of oil per tanker, the markup is about $0.10 per barrel — negligible. But for LNG, where tankers carry fewer cubic meters per vessel, the markup will be more significant — around $0.5-1 per MMBtu.
What the Media Isn't Saying
The main lie being propagated by news about "talks hitting a snag" is ignoring the fact that Khamenei's directive from May 20 was already priced in by markets the next day. When NYT reported on May 23 that Iran agreed to "give up uranium," everyone understood a compromise had been found. Oil and gas markets reacted by lowering the war premium even before Trump's official announcement.
Second omission: The "transit fee" issue is already resolved de facto. Since March, Iran has been charging up to $2 million per vessel. Western companies pay through shell structures or a "shadow fleet." The discussion with Oman is an attempt to legitimize this process so companies can pay without fear of US secondary sanctions. Trump publicly says: "We don't want tariffs." But the US is already watching the talks with Oman without blocking them. This is tacit consent.
Third, and most important omission: The 60-day truce (reported by Axios and other sources) is not a random number. It matches the US electoral cycle. If the deal is announced next week (May 24-26), the truce will expire in late July to early August. Trump will have the entire summer to either conclude a permanent peace or return to a military scenario. Both are politically manageable options ahead of the November elections. Markets have not yet priced this in.
Forecast: Next 30 Days and 90 Days
30 days: The agreement will be announced within 24-72 hours. I'm betting on Monday or Tuesday (May 25-26, 2026). It will be a 60-day truce with the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz. Uranium will remain in Iran but will be diluted to 3.67% under IAEA supervision (technically — "give up of weapons-grade material"). The issue of a permanent payment system for transit will be referred to Oman and the IMO with a delay of 3-6 months.
90 days: If Iran begins to comply with the truce terms, Brent oil will fall to $85-95 per barrel by the end of August. This is already partially priced into the market. If, after 60 days, Iran returns to a hardline position on uranium (e.g., refuses dilution) and Trump does not want to extend the truce, the conflict will resume, and Brent will soar to $120-130. But I consider the first scenario more likely. Trump needs a victory before the elections, and Iran needs a breather and money.
Editorial Forecast
Asset and direction: Brent oil — short-term decline (5-7%) on news of the deal signing.
The agreement is "largely agreed upon," as Trump stated on May 23. An official announcement is expected within the next 24-48 hours. This will cause a reduction in the war premium and a pullback of Brent to the $98-102 level.
Key levels: Current range — 105-108. Expect a test of support at 100.00 and 98.50.
Confidence level: High (70%). Too many sources — NYT, Reuters, Bloomberg, official statements from Trump and Iranian officials — point to the deal being close.
Main risk to forecast: If the deal falls through at the last moment (e.g., Israel vetoes or Khamenei refuses to approve the uranium compromise), Brent will jump to 115-120 within 24 hours. Watch for the official announcement from the White House and Tehran's reaction in the next 48 hours. Initial signals will appear in the accounts of journalists covering the talks 2-3 hours before official statements.
— Editorial Team
