Over 200 Crypto Companies Led by Coinbase and Ripple Urge US Senate to Pass CLARITY Act
Coinbase, Ripple, Kraken, a16z, and Circle have signed a joint letter demanding a vote on the digital asset regulation bill. The document establishes federal rules for the crypto market and has already passed the Senate committee with bipartisan support.
CLARITY Act: The Behind-the-Scenes Battle for the US Crypto Market
Author's analytical review
[The Gist]: What's Really Happening
Behind the public unity of over 200 crypto companies—a united front that looks good only on paper—lies a deep rift. The industry is desperately trying to mask it, but let's be honest: we are witnessing not consensus but coordinated panic. After Galaxy Digital lowered the probability of the bill passing in 2026 from 75% to 60%, and JPMorgan dropped its estimate below 50%, major players realized their narrow window of opportunity is rapidly closing. The August congressional recess is the deadline, after which the election campaign begins. The next chance will come at best in 2030, as Senator Cynthia Lummis directly warned.
Notice the list of signatories. These are not just "leading crypto companies." They are direct competitors: Coinbase and Binance US, Ripple and Circle, venture giants a16z and Multicoin Capital. When such players, spending millions on lobbyists against each other, suddenly unite, it signals an existential threat. They are united by fear of the "patchwork quilt" of state-level regulation that stifles business. But most importantly, they all understand: if the law doesn't pass now, their next round of negotiations will be with a new Congress after the elections. And priorities there could change dramatically.
The most important nuance lost in the numbers is the bargaining chip. Officially, everyone talks about "regulatory clarity." Unofficially, a tough deal is being made: the industry is ready to sacrifice some aspects of decentralization and privacy in exchange for clear rules of the game. But the key stumbling block, oddly enough, is not technical but ethical—amendments prohibiting high-ranking officials and their families from profiting from cryptocurrencies. This provision, aimed in part at the Trump family, has become the red line the White House is unwilling to cross. And you know what? That's exactly why everything could fall apart.
Timeline and Context
Events are unfolding with increasing drama.
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| May 14, 2026 | Bill passes Senate committee 15-9 with bipartisan support |
| June 1, 2026 | CLARITY Act placed on Senate calendar as No. 423—document ready for consideration |
| June 5, 2026 | Alex Thorn of Galaxy Digital publicly lowers forecasts due to failed FISA vote |
| June 7, 2026 | Over 200 companies send joint letter to Senate leaders |
| June 9, 2026 | Negotiations spiral due to dispute over ethics rules for officials |
| June 10, 2026 | Closed meeting at White House with law enforcement |
It seemed the goal was close, especially after the bill passed the Senate committee on May 14. However, on June 5, the first alarm bell rang: the failure of a procedural vote on FISA (Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act) blocked the Senate calendar for a critical week. This meant the time for lobbying before the August recess had shrunk to just a few weeks.
On June 7, the industry struck back. Over 200 companies, organized through Stand With Crypto (a Coinbase project), the Blockchain Association, and The Digital Chamber, sent a joint letter to Majority and Minority Leaders John Thune and Chuck Schumer. It was a show of force and an attempt to push for a vote through public pressure, leveraging nearly 3 million activists nationwide.
But by June 9, negotiations had spiraled. According to Punchbowl News, Republicans proposed weakening enforcement mechanisms for ethics rules for officials, effectively undermining Democrats' trust. Without their votes (at least 9-10 needed), the bill cannot reach 60 votes to overcome a filibuster. And on June 10, a closed meeting at the White House with law enforcement officials took place, who fear that the section on developer protection (BRCA) could hinder efforts to combat terrorist financing.
Who Wins and Who Loses
Winners: Paradoxically, in the current uncertainty, the main beneficiaries appear to be European and Asian jurisdictions. Every week of delay for the CLARITY Act in the US means billions of dollars flowing to the UAE (Dubai VARA), Singapore, or the EU (MiCA regime). Circle, one of the letter's signatories, has already moved its global headquarters to a more predictable environment—a live signal to the market.
In the short term, traders with insider information win. A mysterious address was spotted opening a long position of 8,836 ETH (over $14.56 million) with 20x leverage on Hyperliquid 48 hours before the White House meeting. This is a classic example of trading on news by people confident in the outcome of negotiations, regardless of the sign—volatility is guaranteed.
Losers: This is undoubtedly early-stage US crypto startups (seed and Series A). While the industry fights for federal law, venture funds are cutting investments in the US. The "sandbox" conditions and threat of SEC lawsuits make launching a new protocol in the States a deadly risk. Even if the CLARITY Act passes, many teams have already decided to relocate.
Second losers are large banks lobbying against the law. They did not sign the letter, and their silence is a vote against. Uncertainty benefits them as it preserves their monopoly on clearing and settlement. A victory for the crypto industry would create a direct competitor to their deposit business.
What the Media Isn't Saying
The main non-obvious insight is that the CLARITY Act in its current form is already dead unless a miracle happens with the ethics amendment. No major player can admit this publicly for fear of crashing markets. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has made ethics amendments (ban for officials) her condition. The White House signals that any rules affecting the president are unacceptable. This is a mathematical deadlock. With 53 Republicans and an expected 2-3 "no" votes from conservatives (Paul, Hawley), leadership needs 9-10 Democratic votes. Without a solution on ethics, they won't get them. Simple arithmetic, not political intrigue.
The second hidden factor is the fragmentation of the bill itself. What is called the CLARITY Act is actually a hybrid of three different versions: the House version, the Senate Banking Committee version, and the Senate Agriculture Committee version. The differences in who regulates stablecoins (SEC or CFTC) and how DeFi is treated are colossal. The signed letter from 200 companies is support for the idea, not the specific text. Once the real "conference" to reconcile texts begins (after Senate passage), lobbyists will tear each other apart over every comma. A picture in oil, right?
The third insight is the banking lobby is working at full capacity. Behind the scenes, large financial institutions are intimidating Democrats by claiming that the CLARITY Act would legalize a "shadow banking system" of DeFi that would take money out of control. That's why the discussion of developer protection (BRCA) is on a separate level—banks want to make DeFi developers criminally liable for user actions, which would effectively kill the industry.
Forecast: Next 30 Days and 90 Days
Next 30 days (until mid-July): I expect maximum volatility. From June 10 to 15—the period after the White House meeting—leaks about real chances will emerge. There is an 80% probability that before July 4 (Lummis's target date), the Senate vote will not happen due to the busy schedule with FISA and other issues. This will trigger a 5-10% drop in the crypto market. Coins sensitive to US regulation (e.g., XRP, ADA, SOL) will be particularly affected. Coinbase (COIN stock) could fall to $180-190—investors will shift to safer assets.
Next 90 days (until September): If the law is not passed before the August recess (July 25 – September 7), consider it dead for 2026. The November election campaign will paralyze Congress. JPMorgan is right with a probability below 50%. In this case, we face a "bearish" scenario for institutional adoption. Tokenized Treasuries, which have already exceeded $20 billion, could see capital outflows—the legality of these structures will again be in question. However, there is also a "bullish" scenario: if Trump cuts a deal on ethics in exchange for a high-profile victory before the election, the law could be suddenly passed in a "watered-down" version in September. Then the market would soar 30%+ in a month. Ask yourself: what are you betting on?
Editorial Forecast
Asset: Coinbase stock (COIN, Nasdaq) Direction: Decline in the next 24-72 hours, possible false bounce. Key Levels: Current support at $195, breakdown targets $180. Resistance at $210. Confidence Level: High. Main Risk: A direct statement from Senator Schumer about bringing the bill to a vote next week would negate the decline and trigger a short squeeze.
The market is pricing in disappointment from the White House meeting on June 10, where law enforcement will secure a weakening of developer protections, pushing away the last undecided Democrats. COIN, as a barometer of US sentiment, will drop to $180. Refrain from buying until a clear signal on the ethics amendment. Given the $14.56 million Ethereum trade, expect a spike in volatility in ETH, but don't confuse noise with trend—without the law, altcoins will be sold off.
— Editorial Team
