Bond Market News: Coupon Payments Expected on 464 Issues This Week
From May 23 to May 29, Russian issuers will make coupon payments on 464 bond issues. Among the largest payments are those from Russian Railways (RUB 611.1 million), Rusal (RUB 415.8 million), and Samolet (RUB 295.95 million).
A Quiet $100 Million Flood: Why Coupon Payments Matter More Than Sanctions News
Opinion of an independent analyst, May 25, 2026
On May 25, the Russian bond market is experiencing what appears to be a routine event: coupon payments on 464 issues. The media dutifully lists the amounts — RUB 611.1 million for Russian Railways, RUB 415.8 million for Rusal, RUB 295.95 million for Samolet — and calls it a day. But as an analyst who has tracked liquidity structure in the Russian debt market for the past two years and sees what happens to the money after it leaves the issuer, I assert: the week of May 23–29 is no routine. It is one of the largest monthly redistributions of capital in favor of individuals in 2026, creating hidden opportunities that no one talks about.
[The Core]: Who Actually Gets the Money
What is really happening? From May 23 to May 29, Russian issuers will pay coupons on 464 issues. But these ruble figures mean nothing without the context of exchange rates and holder structure. Let's start with the currency anomaly.
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation set the dollar exchange rate on May 25 at RUB 71.209, and the euro at RUB 82.5445. Note: the dollar rose by 41.88 kopecks compared to the previous value, while the euro fell by 73.01 kopecks. This divergent movement is no coincidence. It reflects that large players are converting ruble-denominated coupons into foreign currency, but selectively. The euro is falling because European assets are currently less attractive amid stagflation in the eurozone. The dollar is rising because coupons on Eurobonds (more on that below) must be paid in dollars.
Non-obvious insight:
The main story this week is not ruble payments, but the payment on Russian Railways' Eurobonds of $12.94 million (€11 million) on May 25. Here's why it matters. Russian Railways, via RZD Capital Plc, pays a coupon on the issue "RZD-19-2027-EUR" at a rate of €22 per bond. The key word is euro. In conditions where the EU continues sanctions pressure and settlements on Eurobonds are technically complex, the very fact of a regular payment is a signal: "the infrastructure works." But it also signals that Russia continues to service its external debt despite everything. The Russian Eurobond market currently has about $35–40 billion outstanding. Each successful payment reduces the risk of default in the eyes of Western investors by a few basis points. May 25, 2026, is another proof of solvency.
Timeline and Context: From Large Payments to Hidden Problems
Let's look at the coupon payment calendar more broadly than the scope of one news item.
May 4, 2026: This was the peak. Payments were made on 142 issues totaling RUB 19.46 billion. This was the main hit to issuer liquidity. Among the large recipients was Samolet with three issues (RUB 97.23 million, RUB 43.68 million, RUB 86.3 million).
May 6, 2026: An intermediate peak — 47 issues for RUB 4.44 billion. Again, Samolet appears with payments of RUB 23.38 million and RUB 80.15 million.
May 25, 2026 (today): 464 issues. That's almost 10 times more than on May 6, but the total volume in rubles is less than on May 4? Paradox. The answer is simple: most payments now are small coupons on bonds with low face value held by individuals. Institutional payments (on 142 issues on May 4) have already passed.
But there is a detail you won't see in the summaries. Look at Rusal's payment schedule on the Moscow Exchange. The last coupon was paid on May 10, 2026 — RUB 14.08 per bond. The next payment is on June 9, but its amount has not yet been announced (a dash in the table). This means the rate for the next coupon will be revised. Given the current key rate of 14.5% (down from 15% on April 24) and the forecast of further reduction to 11–13% by year-end, Rusal's new coupon will almost certainly be lower than RUB 14.08. Holders of Rusal bonds will receive less in the next period. This is a hidden tax loss that is not reported in payment news.
Who Wins and Who Loses
Winners:
- Individuals — bond holders. Especially those holding "retail" issues of Russian Railways, Rusal, and Samolet. They receive real money into their brokerage accounts. At the current key rate of 14.5%, the coupon yield on many corporate bonds is 16–18% per annum, significantly higher than inflation (which, recall, is accelerating in the eurozone but in the RF stays around 5–6%).
- Holders of Russian Railways Eurobonds. They receive €22 per bond in hard currency, which can be reinvested abroad (for those who have that opportunity).
- Samolet (developer). Yes, it pays coupons, but does it also receive them? No, the issuer pays. However, regular payments on its bonds support confidence in its debt securities on the secondary market. Currently, Samolet bond yields hover around 17–19%, allowing the company to refinance.
Losers:
- Issuers that pay. Especially those whose coupons are tied to a floating rate (e.g., RUONIA + spread). As the key rate decreases, their payments will shrink, but right now they are paying at the maximum. Russian Railways paid RUB 611.1 million — a serious cash outflow.
- Holders of fixed-coupon bonds bought at the peak. If you bought a Rusal bond with a coupon of RUB 14.08, and a month later the rate drops and the new coupon is RUB 12, the market price of your bond will fall. You win at the moment (received the coupon), but lose when selling.
What the Media Leaves Out
Three circumstances that headlines ignore.
1. Eurobond payments go through a complex infrastructure that could fail at any moment.
On May 25, Russian Railways pays €11 million. This money goes through NSD (National Settlement Depository), which is under EU sanctions. Technically, payments are possible, but each time requires individual permission. One refusal — and we get a technical default on a specific issue. So far, everything is smooth, but the risk remains.
2. The real yield on bonds after taxes and fees is lower than advertised.
Corporate bond coupons are subject to personal income tax of 13% (or 15% for amounts over RUB 5 million per year). So from a coupon of RUB 14.08, RUB 12.25 will arrive in the account. Plus broker commission (on average 0.05–0.2% of the amount). The media likes to cite "coupon 16% per annum," but the real net yield is about 13.5–14%. At the current key rate of 14.5%, this is no longer such an obvious gain.
3. Samolet is a marker of the health of the entire construction sector.
Three different Samolet bond issues with payments of RUB 97.23 million, RUB 43.68 million, and RUB 86.3 million represent a serious burden. If the developer pays, it means it has money. And if it has money, sales are going. The construction sector is one of the drivers of the Russian economy. Regular payments by Samolet are a positive signal that no one analyzes.
Forecast: Next 30 and 90 Days
30 days (June 2026):
The key date is the Central Bank meeting on June 19. A key rate cut to 14% is expected (the Central Bank has already given a "soft signal" about this). This will cause prices of long OFZ bonds (with duration of 5–10 years) to rise by 2–3%. Short bonds (up to 1 year), on the contrary, may dip slightly as their yield becomes less attractive compared to deposits. I recommend looking at OFZ 26243 (maturity in 2039) with a current yield of about 15%.
90 days (August 2026):
By August, the key rate could be 12.5–13%. The ruble will begin to weaken (I expect a rate of 75–78 per dollar), as lower rates make ruble assets less attractive for carry trade. In this logic, Russian Eurobonds (denominated in dollars) become a safe-haven asset. Currently, RZD-2027 (maturity in 2027) yields about 8–9% in dollars. This could be a good hedge against ruble devaluation.
Editorial Forecast
Asset: Bonds of GC Samolet with maturity in 2027–2028 (issues 4B02-20-16493-A-001P and similar).
Direction: Market price increase of 1.5–2.5% in the next 48–72 hours after the main wave of coupon payments ends.
Key levels: Current price — about 98.5% of par. Target — 100.5–101% after reinvestment of received coupons by holders.
Confidence: Medium (60%) — the reinvestment effect depends on overall risk appetite in the market.
Main risk: A sudden deterioration in the geopolitical situation (a new EU sanctions package against NSD). This could paralyze Eurobond payments, causing panic across the entire debt market, and then the positive effect of coupons would be nullified.
This is an editorial opinion and does not constitute investment advice.
— Editorial Team
