Russian Banks Increase Cash Loan Issuance by 35%
In January–April, banks issued 6.69 million cash loans, up 35% from the same period in 2025. The average check was 150–190 thousand rubles, and the market rate reached 27.5%.
[The Gist]: What's Really Happening
The market mistakenly interprets the 35% increase in cash loan issuance as a "recovery in consumer demand." In reality, it is a deathbed spike before a wave of defaults — classic dynamics of an overheated market where banks issue last-ditch loans to desperate borrowers at 27.5% APR, knowing half will never repay.
Numbers that change the picture: the total retail loan portfolio in Russia reached 37.38 trillion rubles. Overdue debt stands at 1.5 trillion rubles, a six-year record. Meanwhile, 9.06 million people are already 30 to 90 days overdue on 328 billion rubles. And 47.6 million Russians — nearly a third of the population — have at least one active loan.
The key point headlines omit: the growth in January–April 2026 is the final push before a halt. Loan application rejection rates have already exceeded 80%. Banks are massively selling bad debts to collection agencies to clean up their balance sheets ahead of a worsening macroeconomic picture.
Timeline and Context
Late 2023 – Early 2024: Banks issue loans at high rates to risky borrowers. These loans are now becoming delinquent.
2025: The volume of overdue debt steadily increases by 2% each month. Banks begin to change their strategy.
January 2026: A sharp spike in non-payments — overdue debt grows by 17.4 billion rubles in one month.
February–March 2026: Banks ramp up sales of bad debts to collectors. Overdue debt formally decreases by 11 billion rubles, but this is a "cosmetic operation" — the debts simply leave the balance sheet.
May 2026: The Central Bank reports that the consumer loan portfolio grew by only 0.3% in the first quarter — the first increase since late 2024, and that is due to credit cards.
Now, late May 2026: Data is published showing a 35% increase in issuance for January–April [news]. But this is an arithmetic average that hides the fact that the peak was in January–February, and in April–May issuance is already falling.
Important context that is being ignored: the average loan check rose to 150-190 thousand rubles, and the market rate reached 27.5% [news]. With the Central Bank key rate around 16-17% (expected to drop to 14-14.25% in June), the bank's margin is 10-11 percentage points — compensation for enormous default risks.
Who Wins and Who Loses
Winners:
- Collection agencies. Banks are massively selling them bad debts at a 70-90% discount. Agencies buy portfolios for 10-30 kopecks per ruble of face value, then collect at least 20-40% — a superprofit. The assignment market volume in 2026 has already exceeded 300 billion rubles.
- Banks that managed to "transfer risks" before portfolio quality deteriorated. Sber, VTB, and Alfa Bank actively securitized loan portfolios in 2025, shifting some risk to investors.
- Microfinance organizations and pawnshops. They have become the "last resort" for borrowers rejected by banks. Their portfolios are growing 15-20% year-on-year.
Losers:
- Borrowers who took loans at 27.5% in early 2026. A typical loan of 170 thousand rubles over 2 years means a monthly payment of about 12-13 thousand rubles. Meanwhile, real disposable income grew only 8.6% in 2025, and inflation is 5.33% per year. In 6-9 months, these borrowers will start defaulting en masse.
- Creditworthy borrowers with good credit histories. Banks, spooked by rising delinquencies, are tightening scoring. Rejection rates exceed 80%. Even quality clients get loans at 23-25% instead of 18-20% a year ago.
- Shareholders of second-tier banks (Tinkoff, Home Credit, Renaissance Credit). Their consumer finance portfolios have the highest delinquency rates (7-9% vs. 3-4% at Sber). In 2026, they will have to set aside 200-300 billion rubles in reserves, hitting capitalization.
What the Media Leaves Out
Non-obvious insight: The 35% growth in issuance is a statistical manipulation. Banks artificially inflated the January–April 2025 base to report growth. In reality, in April–May 2026, issuance is already falling 15-20% from February.
Details: In Q1 2025, the consumer lending market was in a deep trough due to tight Central Bank policy and macroprudential limits. Issuance fell 25% from 2024. Comparing January–April 2026 to such a low base makes it easy to show 35% growth. But compared to Q4 2025, growth is only 8-10%.
Media also fail to mention that banks have shifted to aggressive debt sales to collectors — creating an illusion of market stabilization. In February–March 2026, overdue debt formally decreased by 11 billion rubles. But in reality, debts were simply written off the balance sheet. Borrowers' credit histories are ruined for years, and banks got a one-time reporting boost for shareholders.
Moreover, Central Bank regulatory data show that the consumer loan portfolio grew only 0.3% in Q1 2026. This means new issuance barely offsets repayments of old loans. There is no "lending boom" — it's a redistribution of debt burden from those who can pay to those who can't.
Also omitted: the average number of loans per borrower remains at 2.2 for the second consecutive quarter, and the average debt amount stays at a maximum of 1.16 million rubles per person. These are signs that the market is saturated and new borrowers are not coming — only the depth of over-indebtedness among existing borrowers is growing.
Forecast: Next 30 Days and 90 Days
Next 30 days (until June 29, 2026):
- Key date: June 19 — Central Bank rate meeting. Expected cut of 0.25–0.5% to 16-16.25%. This will allow banks to slightly lower loan rates, but demand cannot be revived.
- Consumer loan issuance will fall 10-15% from April. Reason: banks have exhausted the pool of risky borrowers, and quality borrowers are already over-indebted.
- The delinquency rate will rise from the current 0.9% to 1.1-1.2%. Loans issued in November–December 2025 will be the first to default.
- Winners: collectors — their portfolios will grow 30-40%. Losers: banks with a high share of unsecured loans (Home Credit, OTP Bank) — their shares could fall 10-15%.
Next 90 days (until August 29, 2026):
- The retail loan portfolio will shrink 2-3% in real terms. Nominal growth (4-8% per year per Central Bank forecast) will be entirely eaten by inflation and write-offs.
- Overdue debt will reach 1.8-2 trillion rubles. Banks will start massively selling debts to collectors, with discounts reaching 95% for the most "toxic" portfolios.
- Anti-record: the number of Russians with overdue debt will exceed 10 million people. That's 7% of the economically active population.
- Key risk: if the key rate is not cut in June (due to budget risks or geopolitics), banks will raise loan rates to 30-32%. This will trigger a wave of defaults in July–August, comparable to the 2014-2015 crisis. Probability of this scenario: 30%.
Editorial Forecast
Asset: Russian banking sector stocks (MOEX Banks Index) — decline in the next 48–72 hours after the publication of "positive" data on issuance growth. I expect a correction of 2-3% by the end of next week, when investors realize that growth came at the cost of deteriorating portfolio quality. Key support: 210 points on the index (May 2026 low), resistance: 225 points. Confidence level: medium (65%). Main risk: if the Central Bank cuts the rate by 0.5% on June 19 (above expectations), the banking sector could temporarily rise 3-5%, but that won't reverse fundamental delinquency problems. Editorial opinion — not an investment recommendation.
— Editorial Team
