Developer Samolet Board Recommends No Dividends for 2025
The company will not pay dividends for the past year. Samolet last paid dividends in 2022.
Title: Samolet Without Dividends for the Third Year in a Row: Why the Developer Has Become a Black Hole for Shareholders
Author: Independent financial analyst (former investment director at a construction holding, 2012–2024)
Introduction
On May 21, 2026, the board of directors of Samolet Group recommended that shareholders not pay dividends for 2025. This is the third consecutive year the developer has left its owners without payouts—the last payment was in 2022. At first glance, the decision is obvious: the company reported a net loss of RUB 2.3 billion (about $32.4 million at an exchange rate of RUB 71 per dollar).
But the headlines hide a much more alarming picture. Samolet hasn't just "failed to earn"—it is in a deep financial crisis that makes its shares one of the riskiest assets on the Russian market. And I will now explain why most analysts are wrong in thinking that "it's not so bad."
[The Core]: What Is Really Happening
The official version: the $32 million loss is one-time, due to a $66 million (RUB 4.7 billion) write-down of investments in the Maryino Quarter project following a lawsuit by the Prosecutor General's Office. Without this write-down, adjusted net profit would have been $35 million (RUB 2.5 billion). That sounds tolerable.
But the non-obvious insight that 99% of analysts keep quiet about: the company's operating cash flow for 2025 was negative by $3 billion (RUB 212.21 billion). This means the business does not generate enough cash even to cover current expenses, let alone dividends. The company lives on borrowed funds and asset sales.
Let me break it down in numbers:
- Revenue: $5.17 billion (RUB 366.8 billion)
- Gross profit: $1.85 billion (RUB 131 billion)
- Interest expense: $350 million (RUB 24.8 billion)
- Interest Coverage Ratio (ICR): only 2.1x—meaning operating profit barely covers interest payments
This is a classic debt crisis: the company earns money, but all of it goes to creditors, not shareholders.
Timeline and Context
2022 — the last time Samolet paid dividends. Two payments of RUB 41 per share (about $0.58 at the exchange rate of those years), totaling $35 million.
2024 — net profit fell threefold to $115 million (RUB 8.2 billion). No dividends.
February 2026 — Samolet requested a subsidized loan of $700 million (RUB 50 billion) from the state. The market reacted with a 4–10% drop in bonds. The company publicly stated that it "does not plan defaults and will manage without state support."
April 2026 — release of 2025 financials. Loss of $32 million. Share of housing delivered with delays: 67.5%.
May 21, 2026 — board recommends no dividends for 2025.
June 23, 2026 — annual shareholders' meeting where the decision will be approved.
Who Wins and Who Loses
Winners:
- Bondholders (with caveats). The company prioritizes debt service. In March 2026, Samolet fulfilled a put option on its BO-P13 series bonds. However, yields on new issues reach 25.75% per annum—the price the company pays for access to money.
- Competitors (PIK, LSR, Brusnika). While Samolet fights for survival, they are increasing market share. According to analysts, Brusnika "looks noticeably stronger" in terms of fundamentals.
Losers:
- Minority shareholders. Samolet shares have fallen more than 20% over the past year. One share now costs about $8.40 (RUB 593–595 according to May 2026 futures). No dividends, no growth in sight.
- Future borrowers of the company. Bond yields of 25.75% are a pre-default level. Any new issue will be even more expensive.
- Shareholders in projects with delays. 67.5% of homes are delivered late. This is a reputational and financial blow.
What the Media Leaves Out
The main story missing from official releases is the 2027 debt wall. Let's look at the numbers:
In 2027, Samolet will need to repay bonds worth about $700 million (RUB 50 billion) for just three issues, not counting bank loans. Meanwhile:
- The cash safety cushion shrank from $352 million (RUB 25 billion) to $107 million (RUB 7.6 billion) over the year.
- Free cash flow is negative—minus $1.24 billion (RUB 88 billion).
- Interest expenses rose 60% year-on-year and continue to grow.
The company's official position: "there will be no default, support will be provided." But the question is what kind of support and on what terms. If the state provides a subsidized loan, it will likely be accompanied by dilution of shareholders' stakes through a secondary offering or asset transfer. If not, default will become a reality in the second half of 2027.
No media outlet reports that the company's dividend policy is effectively annulled. Previously, Samolet guaranteed minimum dividends, but under current conditions, these obligations have been nullified. A new dividend policy will likely be rewritten without fixed payments—and this will probably be announced before the end of 2026.
Forecast: Next 30 Days and 90 Days
30 days (until June 22, 2026):
June 23 — annual shareholders' meeting. I expect formal approval of the decision not to pay dividends. This is already priced in, so there will be no strong reaction. However, speculative movements are possible before the meeting: SMLT-6.26 stock futures (expiring June 19, 2026) trade at a premium to spot, indicating attempts at a "bounce." A short-term rise of 2–3% from the current $8.40 is likely, but this is a rally before expiration, not a fundamental recovery.
More importantly, the company must announce refinancing or extension of credit lines for 2026–2027. If no news emerges, shares could fall another 5–7% by the end of June.
90 days (until August 22, 2026):
By August, the liquidity situation will become critical. Cash flow remains negative, and interest on debt consumes all operating profit. The most likely scenario is an announcement of a secondary offering in July–August. This would dilute current shareholders, leading to a further 15–20% drop in shares from current levels.
I forecast Samolet's share price in the range of $5.60–$6.30 (RUB 400–450) by the end of August 2026. That's another 25–35% decline from current levels.
The only silver lining is a possible reduction in the Central Bank's key rate in the second half of the year. If the rate falls from 16% to 13–14%, the company's interest expenses would decrease by about $50–70 million annually. But that is not enough to close the $3 billion cash flow hole.
For investors: if you hold Samolet shares, ask yourself why you are doing this when there are growth stories in the same sector? If you hold bonds, watch for news about state support. Without it, default in 2027 is the base case.
Editorial Forecast
Asset: Common shares of Samolet Group (SMLT) on the Moscow Exchange
Direction: Moderate decline in the next 24–72 hours (-1% to -3%)
Key levels: RUB 590 (~$8.30) — nearest support; RUB 575 (~$8.10) — next level. Resistance at RUB 610 (~$8.60)
Confidence level: High (75%)
Main risk: Unexpected announcement of a major asset sale or receipt of state support before the end of the week. If that happens, shares could jump 10–15% on speculative optimism. However, even in that case, the company's fundamental problems would not be solved—it would only be a delay, not a cure. The risk of bond default in 2027 remains the main driver of the negative trend.
— Editorial Team
