Global Business Lost $25 Billion Due to Middle East War, Reuters Calculates
Corporations worldwide are buckling under soaring energy and logistics costs. Toyota has already estimated its potential hit at $4.3 billion, while airlines collectively face $15 billion in losses.
$25 billion. That's how much global business has already lost due to the war in the Middle East, according to a fresh Reuters estimate. And this isn't even the final tally—it's just an interim check for the first months of the conflict, as the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues to choke global supply chains.
The figure comprises direct losses, broken contracts, and skyrocketing operating expenses. Toyota estimates its potential hit at $4.3 billion. The aviation industry collectively faces $15 billion in losses. Behind these numbers are halted assembly lines, grounded aircraft, and logistics hubs running idle.
When Factories Stop Working
Monday, May 12, 2026. Toyota issues an emergency update for investors. The Japanese giant reports that disruptions in petrochemical supplies from the Middle East threaten to shut down three plants in Aichi and Kyushu. Plastic components, lubricants, synthetic resins—all are either stuck in the Persian Gulf or have become so expensive that profitability has turned negative.
$4.3 billion is not a net loss but potential lost revenue. However, for a company that just recovered from the semiconductor crisis of 2021–2023, it's a gut punch. Nomura analysts have already cut their operating profit forecast for Toyota by 18% for the fiscal year.
The problem isn't just Toyota. Nissan and Honda have announced shift reductions at Japanese plants. Hyundai has suspended exports of some models to Europe because maritime freight costs via the Cape of Good Hope have eaten up all margins. Container rates on the Shanghai–Rotterdam route have surged to $8,200 per forty-foot container—three times pre-conflict levels.
Skies That Turned Golden
Airlines were hit first. Jet fuel accounts for 25–30% of any airline's operating expenses. When oil broke $100 and then $111, flight economics fell apart overnight.
The industry's collective $15 billion in losses are unevenly distributed but painful. Delta Air Lines last week announced a revision of its Q3 flight plan: 12% fewer transatlantic flights. Lufthansa has frozen its fleet expansion program. Emirates, whose hub is in Dubai—literally at the epicenter of the regional crisis—is losing passenger traffic while paying exorbitant fuel costs.
Budget carriers are suffering the most. Ryanair has warned that average fares will rise 18–22% this summer. Wizz Air has canceled six new routes to Eastern Europe. Aviation is entering a spiral: higher costs → higher ticket prices → lower demand → lower load factors → even higher costs per seat.
The Domino Effect No One Calculated
Reuters compiled data from public reports of 140 major multinational corporations. $25 billion is the amount companies have already recognized in quarterly reports or flagged in forecasts. But the real hole is likely deeper.
First, not all corporations disclose losses immediately. Private companies, sovereign wealth funds, and family conglomerates in the Persian Gulf don't publish operational data at all.
Second, Reuters' methodology accounts for direct costs—more expensive raw materials, broken contracts, war risk insurance for ships. Cascading effects are left out. These include shutdowns of second- and third-tier factories, component shortages in electronics, and disrupted agricultural seasons in India and Pakistan, where Middle Eastern petrochemicals are critical for fertilizer production.
One example illustrates the scale. BASF, Europe's largest chemical company, last week declared force majeure on some polyurethane contracts. The reason: a shortage of raw materials from the Middle East. Polyurethanes are used in construction, automotive, and home appliances. The shutdown of one plant in Ludwigshafen triggers a wave across all of European industry.
Who's Cashing In
Not everyone is losing. US shale companies are experiencing a second renaissance in a decade. ExxonMobil and Chevron are ramping up production in the Permian Basin at record rates—6.2 million barrels per day, an all-time high. US oil exports to Europe have risen 40% since January. LNG terminals on the Gulf Coast are operating at full capacity.
Oil traders—Vitol, Glencore, Trafigura—are posting margins not seen since the pandemic. Market volatility allows them to profit from every price move. Insurance companies specializing in war risks have raised premiums for transiting the Strait of Hormuz twelvefold—and still find clients.
Alternative logistics routes are also winning. The China–Europe railway corridor via Kazakhstan and Russia is running at 97% capacity. The sea route around the Cape of Good Hope, once considered too long and expensive, now handles 28% of container traffic between Asia and Europe.
But the main beneficiary, paradoxically, is Iran. Despite sanctions, Tehran sells oil through a shadow fleet—about 1.5 million barrels per day go to China and Malaysia at a discount of only 8–10% to Brent. The $35 price increase since the start of the year more than compensates for sanctions costs.
The Next Three Months
The most likely scenario for summer 2026 is a prolonged semi-blockade of the strait without formal peace or full-scale war. Oil will remain in the $105–120 range. Global business will continue to adapt through cost cutting, production relocation, and price increases for end consumers.
A second wave of losses will hit retail and consumer goods. P&G and Unilever have already warned of 8–12% cost increases in the second half of the year. Nestlé is reviewing its supply chains for coffee and cocoa. Inflation is gradually shifting from energy to food.
If the conflict drags into autumn, $25 billion will turn into $60–70 billion. And if the blockade is compounded by an attack on Saudi oil facilities, a scenario not even included in stress tests will come into play. Companies accustomed to cheap money and globalization will discover that their supply chains are houses of cards. And the wind from the Persian Gulf has already begun to shake them.
— Editorial Team
