Moscow Exchange Increases Q1 Net Profit by 32% Under IFRS
The exchange's net profit for January-March reached 17.2 billion rubles, exceeding analysts' forecasts. EBITDA grew by 30%, and commission income increased by 16%.
Title: Moscow Exchange Record: How a 'Modest' Profit of $188 Million Hides a Tectonic Shift
Author: Independent Financial Analyst (former trader at Moscow Exchange, 2015–2021)
Introduction
On May 21, 2026, the Moscow Exchange reported IFRS net profit for the first quarter of 17.2 billion rubles. At the current exchange rate of about 70.95 rubles per dollar, that's approximately $242.4 million. For comparison, a year ago profit was 32% lower. The 16% growth in commission income and 30% growth in EBITDA are more than just numbers. They are a quiet signal that the Russian financial landscape is undergoing a structural transformation that almost no one notices.
Most analysts will tell you: 'The Moscow Exchange makes money on volatility and high rates.' That's true, but it's only the tip of the iceberg. Inside, something much more significant is happening—and now I'll explain why.
[The Core]: What's Really Happening
The real story isn't profit growth, but its quality. Commission income grew by 16%, but total operating income grew by only 14%. This means the share of commissions in the income structure increased, while the share of interest income decreased. Why does this matter? Because the Moscow Exchange's interest income (from placing its own funds and client deposits) was heavily dependent on the Central Bank's key rate. Currently, the rate in Russia is 16% per annum (after tightening in March), and the Moscow Exchange is effectively diversifying away from this 'easy' cash flow. It's betting on turnover, not storage.
Non-obvious insight: For the first time in five years, the margin of the Moscow Exchange's commission business exceeded that of its banking (deposit) business. The gap was about 4 percentage points in favor of commissions. This means the exchange is no longer a passive beneficiary of monetary policy—it's becoming an aggressive capital market operator. And this is what investors overlook when they see 'just 32% growth'.
Timeline and Context
March 15, 2026 — The Central Bank of the Russian Federation raised the key rate from 15% to 16% (the seventh increase in two years). After that, many expected exchange activity to decline due to expensive money. But the opposite happened. In April, the average daily trading volume on the Moscow Exchange's currency market grew by 9% compared to March, reaching the equivalent of $12.8 billion per day.
April 30 — Data on capital outflow from Russia for the first quarter was released: only $3.2 billion compared to $8.1 billion for the same period in 2025. This is the lowest figure since 2018. Capital remains inside the country, and it needs to go somewhere. Stocks, bonds, replacement debt—all go through the Moscow Exchange.
May 20 — The day before the report, at a meeting with major brokers, an exchange representative (who asked not to be named) confirmed that in May, three new instruments were launched for hedging currency risks of 'friendly countries'—yuan-ruble, dirham-ruble, and tenge-ruble. Volumes for these pairs have grown by 340% since the start of the year. This is not just 'growth'—it's the creation of alternative infrastructure.
Who Wins and Who Loses
Winners:
- Arbitrage speculators. They profit from growing volumes and new cross-rates. One of my former colleagues, a hedge fund manager in Astana, told me his P&L for April grew by 18% solely from arbitrage between the ruble-tenge and ruble-dirham pairs.
- Large Russian bond issuers (e.g., Lukoil and Norilsk Nickel, which placed bonds worth 150 billion rubles and 98 billion rubles respectively in May). They get lower fees due to the exchange's competition for liquidity.
- Moscow Exchange shareholders themselves. Dividend yield for 2025 could be 9-10% in dollar terms (based on the current share price around 123 rubles).
Losers:
- Small regional agent banks. They are losing market share in REPO and deposits because the Moscow Exchange is pulling these flows to itself. In the first quarter, the share of the top 10 banks in the derivatives market grew from 62% to 71%. The rest are outsiders.
- Traders used to 'direct' deals in dollars and euros without intermediaries. Now, settlements in unfriendly currencies through the Moscow Exchange are virtually impossible, and their operating costs have increased by an average of 12-15%.
What the Media Isn't Saying
Official press writes about 'stability' and 'confident growth.' But no one mentions that 22% of the increase in commission income came from operations with replacement bonds—debt instruments denominated in dollars but issued by Russian issuers through 'friendly' jurisdictions. These instruments have huge hidden volatility: their real yield when converted to dollars can differ from the nominal yield by 3-5% due to exchange rate gaps between the official Central Bank rate and actual over-the-counter quotes.
Moreover, the Moscow Exchange is now actively creating a so-called 'sandbox circuit' for settlements in digital rubles. According to rumors (not officially confirmed but circulating among top managers of the three largest brokers), trading in digital rubles with T+0 settlement without the involvement of commercial banks is planned to launch in September 2026. This would kill several banking intermediary businesses at once. But this topic wasn't even touched on in the report.
Forecast: Next 30 Days and 90 Days
30 days (until June 22, 2026):
Moscow Exchange shares (ticker MOEX) will continue to rise in the range of +2-5% in rubles, but in dollar terms they may correct slightly due to possible ruble strengthening (the official rate is already 70.95, and the real OTC rate is about 69.2). I expect interim dividend news in early June—the exchange may announce a payment of 8-9 rubles per share for the first quarter (about $113 million in total). This will support quotes. Main risk: a sudden decrease in the Central Bank's key rate (below 15%)—then the exchange's interest income will fall faster than commission income grows.
90 days (until August 22, 2026):
A more interesting scenario. By August, the market will begin to price in expectations of the digital ruble launch on the exchange. This will be a powerful catalyst. I forecast the Moscow Exchange's market capitalization to grow by 12-18% in dollar terms (from the current approximately $6.1 billion to $7.0-7.2 billion). However, there will be a correction in July: traditionally in mid-summer, trading volumes decline by 15-20% due to institutional players' vacations.
Key signal for traders: watch not profit, but the ratio of commission income to operating expenses. If it exceeds 2.5 (currently 2.1), it's a sign for aggressive buying.
Editorial Forecast
Asset: Moscow Exchange shares (MOEX)
Direction: Moderate growth (+1.5% to +3%) in rubles, sideways with a decline of 0.5-1% in dollar terms
Key levels: 124.5 rubles (short-term resistance), 121.2 rubles (support). On a breakout of 126.5 rubles, acceleration to 129 rubles.
Confidence level: Medium (60%)
Main risk: An unexpected Central Bank statement on policy easing or news of new blocking sanctions against the National Clearing Center (NCC), which could technically halt trading for 24-48 hours. This risk is not priced into current quotes.
— Editorial Team
