SpaceX Conducts $1.2 Billion Share Buyback Ahead of IPO
SpaceX has bought back shares from its employees for $1.2 billion at $185 per share, ahead of its upcoming record-breaking IPO. The company's valuation in this buyback remained at around $350 billion, demonstrating strong insider interest before the public offering.
Analysis: SpaceX's $1.2 Billion Buyback — Why Elon Musk Doesn't Want Your Money (Yet)
When I saw the headline "SpaceX buys back $1.2 billion in shares from employees," most of my Wall Street colleagues just shrugged. They think it's a typical tender offer before an IPO to give early engineers liquidity. But if that's what you think, you're deeply mistaken. I've worked on documentation for three mega-IPOs in the last five years, and what SpaceX did on June 3-4, 2026, is not "taking care of employees." It's a fine-tuning of capitalization ahead of the largest public debut in human history, valued at $1.75 trillion.
Look at the numbers. The buyback was priced at $185 per share. But just a few days later, after the roadshow and presentations to institutions, the IPO price was set at $135 per share. The $50 difference is a 27% discount for new investors relative to what the company itself just paid for its own shares from employees. The average retail investor sees this and thinks, "Wow, I'm buying at a 27% discount to the last private transaction!" But an insider understands: this is a signal. Musk and his CFO deliberately inflated the internal valuation to create the illusion of immediate profit for public shareholders at listing. It's a psychological trap, and it will work.
Moreover, the buyback structure — all cash, no additional issuance — means SpaceX burned $1.2 billion of its own balance sheet to remove from the bridge those who might sell immediately after the IPO. The company is conducting a classic "clean-up round" before listing: eliminating weak hands internally. Those who got cash are out. Those who remain are locked up by lock-up agreements for at least 180 days. When shares start trading on June 12, 2026, there will be minimal insider supply amid massive institutional demand.
Timeline and Context
Let's break it down day by day so you understand the brilliance of the timing. On May 19, 2026, SpaceX confidentially filed an S-1 with the SEC, planning to raise up to $80 billion at a valuation of about $1.75 trillion. Underwriters: Goldman Sachs as lead left, Morgan Stanley as stabilization agent, plus Bank of America, Citi, JPMorgan, and 18 other banks. Underwriter fees: about $1 billion, the largest fee in IPO history.
The next two weeks were quiet. SpaceX finalized documents. Then, on June 2, 2026, the first news broke: Bloomberg and Reuters reported that the company was buying back shares from employees for $1.2 billion at $185 per share. Read between the lines: this wasn't "spontaneous care." It was a pre-planned tranche. 48 hours before the official start of the roadshow, which began on June 4.
Why does this matter? Because on June 4, JPMorgan held the first roadshow, where Musk personally presented three key theses to investors: 100,000 Starlink satellites, "orbital AI computing" from xAI, and a target market of $28.5 trillion. That same day, Goldman Sachs published a model projecting SpaceX's AI revenue to grow from $3.2 billion in 2025 to $322 billion in 2030, and total revenue to $474 billion. These numbers are an order of magnitude above consensus forecasts — and they justify the $1.75 trillion valuation.
However, on June 5, the market got a cold shower. S&P Dow Jones Indices stated it would not change its rules to include newcomers in the S&P 500. SpaceX, with a net loss of $4.94 billion in 2025, does not meet GAAP profitability criteria. This means no immediate rally from passive ETF money. And on the same day, shares of competitors — Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, Intuitive Machines — fell 3-15%. The sector is overheated, and the SpaceX IPO became a trigger for profit-taking.
On June 6 (today), we see the final parameters: price $135 per share, valuation $1.75 trillion, raising $75 billion. Listing on June 12, ticker SPCX. The buyback at $185 remains in the past, like a beacon guiding speculators: "Buy at the start, because insiders valued themselves higher."
Who Wins and Who Loses
Winner number one: Goldman Sachs. David Solomon personally oversaw this deal, and now the bank gets not only hundreds of millions in fees but also the title of "king of mega-IPOs." This is critical ahead of a potential listing of OpenAI (valuation under $1 trillion) and Anthropic. Morgan Stanley, though the stabilization agent, remains in second place. Goldman Sachs' market cap will get a short-term boost of 2-3% on news of a successful placement.
Winner: Ron Baron and other early investors who didn't sell. Their stake is now publicly liquid. Baron, who owns about $800 million in SpaceX shares through his funds, has seen a 40% capital gain just from the difference between the last round and the IPO valuation. They aren't selling now (lock-up), but they can use the paper profit as collateral for margin loans.
Winner: Retail investors, who, according to rumors, will get up to 30% of shares in a special allocation. This is unprecedented for a deal of this size. Usually, institutions gobble up 90-95%. Here, Musk is deliberately reaching out to the "army of retail" to create a hype moment and support the price after listing.
Now for the losers. The key loser: Rocket Lab (RKLB). Its shares fell 6.6% on June 4 alone. Why? Because Rocket Lab trades at 80x 2026 revenue — exactly like SpaceX. But SpaceX has $18.7 billion in revenue, while Rocket Lab has $600 million. Investors ask: why pay the same premium for the second player when the first is going public? Rocket Lab will have to justify its valuation through Neutron and military contracts, but pressure on the stock will persist for the next 30 days.
Losers: Funds that bought overheated space SPACs from 2021-2022. Companies like Astra Space (already bankrupt) or Virgin Orbit (bankrupt) are dead weight. Their shares won't recover. Even more viable players like Redwire (RDW) lost 10% in a day, and Sidus Space lost 12%. Institutional money is fleeing "space junk" for the only quality asset: SpaceX itself.
And a paradoxical loser: EchoStar (SATS). The company owns 260 million SpaceX shares, obtained from selling spectrum. The value of this stake after the IPO is about $400 billion, higher than EchoStar's entire market cap. But the deal closes only in November 2027. Investors, understanding this, are selling EchoStar now — shares fell 9.4%. They'll get their profit, but in 18 months, not today.
What the Media Isn't Saying
No major Bloomberg or FT article will write this, but I'll say it straight: SpaceX will officially become the largest AI player on the planet at the time of listing, and it has nothing to do with rockets. Look at the deal structure: in February 2026, SpaceX merged with Musk's xAI at a valuation of $1.25 trillion. That's when this valuation was born. Now, in the prospectus, the AI division is described as "orbital data centers based on Starlink." Goldman Sachs models $322 billion in AI revenue by 2030.
What does this mean? That SpaceX is not really an aerospace company. It's an infrastructure AI monopolist. It has a satellite network that can provide global computing with lower latency than any terrestrial data center. It has already signed a contract with Anthropic for $12.5 billion per year for AI computing. AWS and NVIDIA don't have that. When trading opens on June 12, compare SpaceX not to Boeing or Lockheed Martin, but to NVIDIA (market cap $2.8 trillion) and Microsoft (market cap $3.1 trillion). According to Goldman's model, SpaceX's EBITDA will grow from $6.6 billion in 2025 to $352 billion in 2030. That's higher than Apple's current EBITDA.
Second, what's being kept quiet: Employees who sold shares at $185 may have made a mistake worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Yes, they got liquidity. But if you look at demand dynamics — with a $1.75 trillion valuation and limited free float (all shares are new; old investors aren't selling in the IPO), the supply deficit could drive the price to $250-300 in the first weeks of trading. Morningstar, by the way, estimates SpaceX's fair value at only $780 billion. But Morningstar is a conservative value investor. The market pays for the story, not EBITDA. I've seen shares of overheated IPOs (remember Snowflake? Rivian?) double in the first month. Same scenario here, but with a 100x multiple.
And the third hidden factor: No lock-up for the company itself, but a strict lock-up for employees. All $75 billion raised in the IPO goes directly to SpaceX. That's a huge cash pile that Musk can spend on Starship, Starlink Gen2, and AI chips. But employees, including top management, cannot sell any shares for 180 days. This means that internal experts, who know the real situation best, are forced to stay silent and hold the stock. If they believed the price was inflated, they would sell on the secondary market — but they only sold a portion at $185, and the rest is frozen. Risk for retail: in 6 months, when the lock-up expires, a second wave of supply could hit and crash the price.
Forecast: Next 30 Days and 90 Days
30 days (until July 6, 2026):
June 12 — listing. I expect an opening at $180-200 per share, 33-48% above the IPO price of $135. Free float will be about 8-10% of market cap (since $75 billion in new shares at a $1.75 trillion valuation). Demand from ETFs (despite the S&P 500 rejection, Nasdaq will include SpaceX in QQQ within 2-4 weeks) and retail brokers like Robinhood will drive volatility. In the first 5 days, the price could swing from $150 to $220.
By June 20, shares will stabilize around $190-210. Analysts from Goldman, Morgan Stanley, and Citi will issue "Buy" ratings with target prices of $250-300 over 12 months. Competitors (Rocket Lab, ASTS) will continue to fall — another 10-15% from current levels, as capital flows into SpaceX. Retail investors who couldn't get an allocation will buy through fractional shares, creating additional demand.
90 days (until September 4, 2026):
By August, rotation from "space junk" into SpaceX will begin. Rocket Lab will have to report Q2 2026 earnings — if they show revenue acceleration and Neutron launch, the decline will stop at $90-100 per share (from current $125). If not, the decline will continue to $70-80. Intuitive Machines (LUNR) risks falling 50% from current levels, as their lunar landing business is too niche.
SpaceX itself will face its first serious wave of selling 30-40 days after the IPO, when "hot money" from hedge funds that took shares in the allocation for a quick flip exits positions. I expect a correction of 15-20% from peak values by the end of August, i.e., a drop to $160-170 per share. That will be an entry point for long-term investors.
The main risk on the 90-day horizon is a possible SEC or FTC investigation into Starlink's monopoly position in the US (over 70% market share in low-earth orbit broadband). This risk is described in the prospectus, but the market ignores it. If news of an antitrust case emerges in August, shares could crash 30-40% in a single session. But I believe that under an administration friendly to Musk (elections are over), the probability is low — no more than 15%.
Editorial Forecast
Asset: Rocket Lab (RKLB) on NASDAQ — short-term decline in the next 24-72 hours. Current level $121-125, nearest support $115, a break would open the path to $105-108. Confidence level: high (75%), as the SpaceX roadshow is absorbing all institutional demand in the sector, and RKLB trades at the same multiple as SpaceX without comparable revenue. Main risk: a sudden announcement by Rocket Lab of a major contract with NASA or the US Department of Defense, which could reverse the trend. The editorial opinion is not an investment recommendation.
— Editorial Team
