Spacex Gears Up for the Biggest IPO in History: BlackRock Targets $10 Billion
The company's assets already exceed hundreds of billions, and it holds $637 million in bitcoin on its balance sheet. The world holds its breath: can Musk pull off the most headline-grabbing deal of the decade?
Black Rocket Monday: How SpaceX and BlackRock Are Rewriting Wall Street Rules
$1.75 trillion. That's not the budget of a small country or a typo in a balance sheet—it's the valuation SpaceX is expected to command when it goes public next month. When the largest asset in history steps onto the public market, Wall Street freezes, and Elon Musk prepares to execute the boldest deal of the decade without even selling Tesla shares to fuel it.
While the world debates whether the space bubble will burst, BlackRock has already set its sights on a slice of the pie worth up to $10 billion. And this isn't a bet on rockets—it's a ticket to a new infrastructure reality.
$2 Trillion Is Just the Warm-Up
SpaceX has lifted the veil on its finances. According to a PitchBook analyst note, the company generated roughly $16 billion in revenue in 2025 and posted EBITDA margins around 50%. This is not a startup burning through venture capital—it's a machine printing real cash from satellites and launches.
But the IPO offers a multiple that even for the tech sector looks like a defiance of gravity: the price-to-revenue ratio exceeds 100x.
To understand where such confidence comes from, look no further than the deal closed in February 2026. SpaceX acquired xAI—a company founded by Musk himself to develop artificial intelligence—in a stock swap that valued the combined entity at $1.25 trillion. It was a moment of alchemy. From a rocket manufacturer and satellite internet operator, SpaceX transformed into a vertically integrated hub controlling the physical delivery of data in space and the computing power to process it.
Add to that $637 million in bitcoin sitting quietly on the company's cold wallets, and you get a portrait of a corporation equally at home on the launch pads of Boca Chica and in the world of tokenomics.
The Secret Code of Starlink and the Death of Falcon 9
Musk's ace in the hole is Starlink. In 2025, the constellation generated $10.6 billion in revenue and posted EBITDA margins of 54%, serving 9.2 million subscribers. Analysts project that by 2040, this segment's revenue will reach $120 billion. The growth secret isn't in rooftop dishes but in direct connection to ordinary cell phones—Direct-to-Cell.
In a year and a half, this service has attracted 6 million subscribers through 27 carrier partners. SpaceX is no longer knocking on the doors of telecom giants asking for partnerships—it has bought the infrastructure itself. After acquiring spectrum from EchoStar for $19.6 billion, Musk became a full-fledged player in the mobile communications market with the power to dictate terms.
At the same time, the company is preparing to retire its legendary workhorse. Falcon 9, which completed 165 missions in 2025 and captured 52% of the global orbital launch market, is heading for retirement. Its place will be taken by Starship—a fully reusable system that reduces the cost of lifting a kilogram of cargo to orbit by roughly 70%. The first commercial flight is expected this year. This will create a temporary EBITDA dip in the early 2030s, but strategically it will leave all competitors in the Stone Age.
Why $800 Billion Will Vanish from Big Tech
BlackRock's $5–$10 billion investment through an actively managed fund worth half a trillion is not charity. The asset manager aims to increase its stake, which currently stands at a paltry $300 million compared to positions held by Fidelity and Baillie Gifford. But for the market, something else matters more: the IPO triggers the largest capital reallocation since the dot-com era.
The mechanics are simple and brutal. As soon as SpaceX gets a ticker on Nasdaq—tentatively June 12 after a 1-for-5 stock split—the countdown begins for forced index inclusion. Under new exchange rules, the company can enter the Nasdaq-100 after just 15 trading sessions. This will force passive funds tracking the index to buy shares worth between $330 billion and $520 billion.
The irony is that the money won't appear out of thin air. Passive giants like QQQ (with nearly $4 trillion under management) will have to forcibly rebalance portfolios, reducing weights in Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, and most painfully, Tesla. Investors have held shares of the "Magnificent Seven" for years, seeing no alternative. Now Musk has created that alternative, pulling the liquidity blanket onto his spaceship.
Planetary Effect: Who Will Ride on Someone Else's Thrust
The only way for retail investors to get exposure to SpaceX before July is to buy shares of public "satellites" in the space race. Since March 25, when the first rumors of the IPO timeline emerged, Rocket Lab shares have soared 57%, Intuitive Machines gained 46%, and Firefly Aerospace rose 36%.
The market is behaving like a blockbuster premiere: audiences are buying popcorn and merchandise without even seeing the movie. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley analysts have counted at least 24 stocks from the "space" list that have doubled since the start of the year. But any correction on listing day or the expiration of lock-up periods could hit these proxy assets as hard as the original.
Two Scenarios for the Yellow Brick Road
Opinions from Wall Street's two leading investment banks diverge sharply. Goldman Sachs argues that the market will easily absorb the offering. Their logic rests on math: $800 billion in raised capital dissolves against the $77 trillion market capitalization of the US market—that's just 0.1%. Moreover, in 2026 only about a hundred companies are going public, not 380 as in the crazy year of 1999.
Bank of America, on the other hand, calls the SpaceX IPO and the upcoming Anthropic listing ($900+ billion) "the beginning of the end of the bull cycle." In their view, professionals will quietly dump overheated assets, distracting retail attention with flashy space stories. Jim Cramer, Wall Street's TV oracle, even warned that if underwriters artificially create a share shortage, the market cap could rocket to a stratospheric $5 trillion on the first day, creating a bubble that could detonate the entire tech sector.
The most severe scenario concerns Tesla directly. If institutional investors decide that doubling down on Musk through two different assets is irrational, the automaker's shares risk aggressive selling. For a company whose stock already looks weaker than the market this year, the emergence of a "purer" way to invest in Musk's empire could lead to an identity crisis.
Musk has given his word that he will not sell a single personal share during the IPO. He will retain control through a dual-class structure with 10 votes per share, remaining captain of the ship no matter which way the market wind blows. But for everyone else, this summer will be a moment of truth: can the stock market digest a company worth as much as Walmart and Meta combined, but earning like an average pharmaceutical corporation? We'll find out in July, when the engines fall silent and the first ticker appears on the board.
— Editorial Team
