Deribit Traders Bet on Bitcoin at $170,000, Buying Cheap Out-of-the-Money Options
The most active options on Deribit include a contract with a $170,000 strike expiring in December, reflecting speculative expectations of BTC growth in the long term.
The $170,000 Lottery: Why Cheap Deribit Calls Are Not a Bull Market Signal
When Bitcoin falls below $60,000 and Deribit traders buy call options with a $170,000 strike expiring in December, it sounds like madness or prophecy. The media presents it as "speculative growth expectations," hinting at an imminent "moon" scenario. But those who actually make money in the market know: large out-of-the-money options are not a bet on growth. They are insurance, a hedge, and often a cheap lottery ticket for retail players who don't understand the Greeks (delta, gamma, vega, theta) and probabilities.
I analyzed options data on Deribit over the last 72 hours, compared it with the overall market structure, and saw a picture opposite to what the headlines paint. $170k calls are noise on which large players sell volatility, while real money hedges against a drop to $60,000.
[The Gist]: What's Really Happening
Official news: Deribit traders are betting on Bitcoin at $170,000. Unofficially: Open Interest on Deribit options has reached record levels, exceeding $15 billion in notional value. But the key is the distribution of this interest. Yes, there are calls at $170,000, and they have attracted attention. But look at the "wall" of puts at $60,000, where over $1.2 billion in notional OI is concentrated.
What does this mean? The options market is now polarized. On the long end (December 2026) — cheap speculative calls bought with residual premium. On the short end (nearby months, especially June-July) — heavy put positions that insure against a fall below current levels. Traders are not expecting $170,000. They fear $55,000.
Moreover, the entire structure works in the context of a general market downturn. From June 1 to June 5, 2026, over $5.3 billion in leveraged long positions were liquidated, of which $1.4 billion was on June 5 alone. This is a classic washout. The market is cheapening, volatility is falling, and institutions sell options, collecting premium, while retail buys distant calls, hoping for a miracle.
Timeline and Context
Understanding the term structure of volatility and the distribution of open interest across strikes and expiration dates answers the question "who is against whom."
May 2026. At the end of May, the 25-delta skew of short-term options reached -24% in favor of puts. This means protection against a fall was more expensive than a bet on growth. Glassnode recorded a "defensive" position: weekly implied volatility (IV) fell to ~31% from ~39%, but the skew remained put-rich.
June 1-5, 2026. Liquidation storm. Bitcoin tests $60,000. $5.3 billion liquidated. The futures market is cleared of overheated long positions.
June 7-9, 2026 (current situation). Against the backdrop of relative stabilization, we see the following picture on Deribit (according to aggregators as of June 9):
- Short tail (next 2-4 weeks): Concentration of puts at $60,000 — over $1.2 billion. This creates a "gamma trap." If the price approaches $60,000, market makers who sold these puts (short gamma) are forced to sell even more futures or spot BTC to hedge, amplifying the decline.
- Medium term (July-September): Activity in calls at $80,000-$100,000. But these are mostly structured products, not pure bets.
- Long tail (December 2026): This is where those $170,000 calls fall. They are "lottery tickets." Their premium is cheap (probability of exercise — fractions of a percent). Large capital does not go into such positions. It's either retail or small hedge funds using a small portion of capital for an asymmetric bet.
Who Wins and Who Loses
Winners: Volatility sellers (vol-sellers). These are large market makers and prop trading firms. They see that IV on long-dated calls is inflated compared to historical lows. They sell these calls, collecting premium, and hedge on spot or futures. For them, $170,000 is a level Bitcoin is unlikely to reach by December, given the current macro picture (high rates, ETF outflows).
Winners: Institutional Bitcoin holders (ETFs, miners). They buy puts at $60,000 as insurance. For 2-3% of portfolio value, they insure against a catastrophic drop. If Bitcoin crashes to $50,000, their puts will pay off, compensating for losses.
Losers: Retail traders buying these calls. They don't understand theta — the time decay of option value. Every day Bitcoin doesn't move toward $170,000, their option loses value. By November, even if Bitcoin rises to $90,000, the $170,000 option will still be worth almost zero due to the time remaining until expiration. This is capital drain.
Loser: Deribit (relatively), if a "gamma squeeze" downward occurs. Yes, the exchange earns on volumes. But if the scenario of a $60,000 breakout and avalanche sales materializes, it will create reputational risks for the entire options platform as a source of systemic risk.
What the Media Leaves Out
Non-obvious insight number one: "Max Pain" at $60,000 is more important than $170,000. The theory of maximum pain states that the price tends to the level where the largest number of options expire worthless. Currently, a giant pool of open interest is concentrated precisely at $60,000. This means that large players (option sellers) have a strong incentive to keep the price above $60,000 until expiration so that put options do not get exercised. The battle is for $60,000, not $170,000. $170,000 is just a distraction.
Insight number two: Cheap calls are a byproduct of high demand for puts. When everyone buys downside protection (puts), call options become relatively cheaper. Market makers balance the book. High demand for puts creates a skew in call options in the opposite direction. Traders buying $170,000 calls are simply taking the other side of the balance, unaware that their bet is the "second leg" of a large hedger's trade.
Insight number three (most important): ETF inflows and outflows have become the driver of options mechanics. In 2024-2025, Bitcoin options were a derivative of spot. Now it's the opposite. The Deribit options market is so large (OI exceeded $108 billion across all options) that market maker hedging dictates spot price movement. This is confirmed by FalconX: "Options orders now drive price movement more than spot trades." When you see calls at $170,000, know: this is not a forecast. It's input data for market maker algorithms that, based on these positions, will buy or sell real bitcoins to remain neutral.
Forecast: Next 30 Days and 90 Days
30 days. The focus will be on holding the $60,000 level. June and July expirations will be key. If Bitcoin holds above $60,000, the "short gamma" pressure will ease, and we may see a bounce to the $65,000-$70,000 range as put sellers close positions. But if the news flow (e.g., Fed policy tightening or a new wave of tech stock sell-offs) pushes the price below $58,000, a cascade will trigger. $1.2 billion in "puts" will start to be exercised, and market makers will be forced to sell another $500 million to $1 billion in spot BTC to hedge. The downside target is $52,000-$54,000.
90 days. By September, the situation will become clearer. If $60,000 holds, the market will shift to positive: seasonal strengthening and hopes for Fed rate cuts at year-end. Then December calls at $80,000-$100,000 will start to rise in price. $170,000 calls will remain a cheap lottery. But if $60,000 falls — a bear market will set in. Those who bought insurance (puts) will profit. Those who bought $170,000 calls will lose 100% of the premium. In the long term (12-18 months), I expect a new bull cycle, but by December 2026, $170,000 is a scenario with less than 5% probability given current liquidity and macro policy.
Editorial Forecast
Asset: Bitcoin (BTC). Direction: Neutral with elevated downside risk.
In the next 72 hours, we expect consolidation in the $60,000-$63,000 range with attempts to hold the psychological level. Key level: $60,000. If BTC closes the day below $59,500, there is a high probability of cascading sales due to gamma hedging of options to $57,000. Confidence level: Medium. Main risk: a sudden positive macro signal (e.g., Fed chair statement about readiness to cut rates) could trigger a short squeeze to $66,000, breaking the "bearish" options setup.
The editorial opinion is not an investment recommendation.
— Editorial Team
