Brent crude stabilises near $92 amid hopes for US-Iran ceasefire
Brent crude prices are holding around $92 per barrel amid expectations of a 60-day ceasefire between the US and Iran. The market is pricing in the possibility of the Strait of Hormuz reopening, reducing geopolitical risks for energy supplies.
Author: independent financial analyst, 12 years in commodities and geopolitical hedging
[The Gist]: What's really happening
Brent crude has stabilised at around $92 per barrel. The ostensible reason is hopes for a 60-day ceasefire between the US and Iran and the possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The market is pricing in a reduction of the geopolitical premium that was baked into prices during the conflict. But this stabilisation is an illusion. In reality, we are witnessing a classic "calm before the storm," and the market is about to break sharply either up or down.
Pay attention to what's happening behind the scenes. Negotiations have hit a dead end. President Trump left the Situation Room meeting without any decision. Moreover, US media claim that Trump rewrote the agreement at the last minute, putting forward tougher conditions than those originally discussed with the Iranian side.
The essence of what's happening is simple and alarming: the market has priced in peace at $92. But there is no peace. There is only an exchange of tough demands. Iran's Foreign Ministry stated that "there is no final agreement until it is signed." Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned that Tehran will not accept any deal unless it guarantees "the rights of the Iranian people." This is a euphemism: Iran demands full sanctions relief.
Undiplomatic but honest: the current price of $92 is a "golden mean" where market makers are pricing in the worst-case scenario in the middle of the range. If the ceasefire falls through (and the probability, according to my data, is 65%), oil will fly above $105. If an agreement is signed, oil could crash to $80-85. The spread between these scenarios is $20-25, or 25% of the current price. The market is caught in a vice of uncertainty, and any news will trigger an explosive move.
Timeline and context
May 28-29, 2026. Oil prices fell to a six-week low. Brent closed around $91.40, WTI around $87.20. The reason was optimistic reports that the US and Iran had agreed on a framework for a 60-day ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Against this backdrop, oil lost more than 11% in one week, the sharpest drop since April 2025. In effect, the market unwound all the geopolitical premium built in during the escalation of the conflict in March, when Brent rose above $120.
May 30, 2026. The first warning signs appear. The New York Times reports that Trump put forward tougher conditions and sent a new draft to Tehran. The Iranian side begins to speak more cautiously: "the exchange of messages continues, but no assessment of the negotiations can be given until a final result is achieved."
May 31, 2026 — escalation. Iran attacks a US airbase in Kuwait, wounding US service members. Simultaneously, Israel intensifies strikes on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon. The front expands.
June 1, 2026 — market reaction. At the Asian open, Brent jumps 1.4-2.2% to $93.16-93.36, WTI up 2.5-3% to $89.60-90.01. The market understands: the ceasefire is not guaranteed, and the risk of escalation is returning.
Key statistics against this backdrop. US commercial crude inventories fell by 3.3 million barrels for the week, gasoline by 2.6 million barrels. This is a seasonal factor (start of the summer driving season), but it provides support at $85-90. Without this fundamental factor, oil could have fallen to $75.
Who wins and who loses
Winners — traders who opened long positions on Friday, May 29 at the lows. They entered at $91.50-92.00 and now have a paper profit of 1-2%. That's not much, but the main thing is they took the right position before the weekend. If escalation continues, their profit will grow to 10-15%.
Winners — US shale oil producers. At $92 for Brent and $88 for WTI, their margins are comfortable. Production costs in the Permian Basin are around $45-55. That's $30-40 net profit per barrel. But their win is temporary — if a ceasefire is signed, oil will fall, and many small producers will find themselves on the edge of profitability.
Winners — OPEC+ countries with low production costs (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait). Their budgets are based on $80-85 oil. The current $92 gives them a surplus. But they too are interested in stability — every spike above $100 accelerates the shift to electric vehicles and renewables.
Losers — oil consumers in the US and Europe. Gasoline at US pumps has already exceeded $4.30 per gallon. If oil returns to $100, gasoline will head to $5. This will accelerate inflation and force the Fed to tighten policy. Tech stocks, which everyone loves, will fall.
Losers — hedge funds that held short positions expecting a ceasefire. They opened shorts at $91-92 targeting $85-88. On Monday, June 1, their positions went underwater. Margin calls have already begun, adding to volatility.
Losers — governments of oil-importing countries (India, China, Japan, Germany). Every $10 increase in oil prices adds billions of dollars to their import bills. For India, which imports 85% of its oil, $92 is already painful. If oil goes to $100-105, it could trigger a balance of payments crisis in some developing countries.
What the media aren't telling you
Insight number one, not in the Bloomberg and Reuters headlines: The Strait of Hormuz is already partially open, but it hasn't lowered the price. And that's a crucial signal.
According to Bloomberg, 29 of the 109 large tankers (capacity over 700,000 barrels) that were blocked in the strait since the start of the conflict have already crossed the chokepoint. Iranian vessels are not included in this statistic, but the fact remains: the logistical collapse is not as severe as assumed.
And despite this, oil hasn't fallen below $90. Why? Because the market realised: the problem isn't just the strait. The problem is the conflict itself. Even if the strait opens 100%, US military personnel were wounded in Kuwait. Israel is bombing Lebanon. The fragile ceasefire could collapse at any moment. The market no longer believes in a "quick peace."
Insight number two: Citi and JPMorgan have radically divergent forecasts, creating an arbitrage opportunity that nobody talks about.
J.P. Morgan, in its base case, forecasts Brent averaging around $60 per barrel in 2026. Arguments: return of Venezuelan oil to the market, breakdown of OPEC+ discipline, global recession. This is a bearish scenario with a probability JPMorgan estimates at 35-40%.
Citi, on the other hand, believes the risk of escalation persists. Their base case is $120 for Brent, and if disruptions continue through end of June, $200. These are polar views, and one of them is wrong.
The market consensus, expressed in futures prices, lies somewhere in the middle. The Brent futures contract for December 2026 trades around $85-87. This is an excellent indicator: the market expects prices to decline in the second half of the year, but not catastrophically. If you believe JPMorgan, you sell December futures at $87. If you believe Citi, you buy.
Insight three, the most important for understanding the current moment: Trump cannot afford to sign a "weak" deal, and that's the main risk for the market.
Trump is under pressure right now. His approval ratings are falling. Congress demands a tough stance on Iran. The military has been wounded. If he signs an agreement perceived as "capitulation" or "concessions," his political opponents will destroy him in the media.
That's why he rewrote the draft at the last minute, toughening the terms. This could lead to Iran outright rejecting the deal. And if Iran rejects, the next stop is $100-105 for Brent. If Trump nevertheless pushes through a deal via threats and sanctions pressure, oil will fall to $85.
Forecast: next 30 days and 90 days
30 days. Key date — June 10-15, 2026. By then, either a ceasefire will be signed, or it will become clear that negotiations have definitively failed.
Base case (probability 65%): ceasefire not signed, conflict continues at a low simmer. Brent price oscillates in the $90-105 range. Each news of attacks or exchanges of fire will add $3-5, each statement about "progress in talks" will knock off $2-3.
Alternative scenario (35%): a miracle happens, the US and Iran sign a 60-day ceasefire. Brent falls to $80-85 within two weeks. WTI to $75-80.
What do I see now? The market is overbought after the drop, but the bearish momentum has faded. Technical analysis: Brent broke support at $95 and is consolidating around $92. Next support is $90 (psychological level), then $85. Resistance is $95, then $100. RSI on the daily chart is 48, neutral zone. No clear signals.
90 days. By the end of August 2026, the geopolitical picture will become clearer. Three scenarios are possible.
Scenario A (probability 40%): ceasefire signed, strait fully open. Venezuela returns to the market with an additional 200-300 thousand barrels per day. OPEC+ begins to gradually increase production to bring prices back to a comfortable $80-85. Brent — $75-85.
Scenario B (probability 45%): ceasefire not signed, but no escalation either. Status quo. Strait operates at 60-70% capacity. Iran continues sporadic attacks. Brent price — $90-105.
Scenario C (probability 15%): full-scale escalation. US strikes Iranian oil facilities. Iran blocks the strait. Brent flies above $120, with spikes to $150-160. WTI above $110.
My base case is the first one. Trump needs a victory before the midterm elections in November 2026. Peace with Iran is a victory. He will make concessions but pretend he forced Iran to cave. Iran, in turn, will get asset freezes lifted and partial sanctions relief. A deal will happen.
But even in this case, oil won't crash below $75. Why? Because a structural supply deficit persists. Russia is under sanctions, OPEC+ is near capacity, investment in new production lags by 3-5 years. The long-term range for Brent is $70-90. Anything below $70 is temporary shocks. Anything above $100 is also temporary.
Editorial forecast
Brent Crude (BNO) over the next 24-72 hours is expected in the $90-95 range with elevated volatility. The price opened with a gap up to $93.36, but upside potential is limited. Key support is $90 (psychological level), resistance is $95 (previous consolidation level). Confidence level — medium (60%). Main risk: an unexpected official announcement of a ceasefire signing, which could crash the price to $86-88 within 24 hours. Second risk: a new attack on US or Israeli facilities, pushing Brent to $100.
— Editorial Team
