Russian Mortgage Market Grows 9% in April Despite High Rates
Banks issued mortgage loans worth 359 billion rubles to citizens in April, with the share of market-rate mortgages rising to 157 billion rubles. The total mortgage portfolio reached 24.2 trillion rubles.
Headline: Mortgages Grow Despite Rates: Why the Real Estate Market Defied the Central Bank and What Comes Next
Author: Independent Financial Analyst (Insider Perspective)
[The Gist]: What's Really Happening
The Central Bank published data that looks like a paradox: in April 2026, the volume of mortgages issued rose 9% compared to March, reaching 359 billion rubles (about $4.86 billion at the average April exchange rate). The total mortgage portfolio hit 24.2 trillion rubles ($327 billion). Meanwhile, market mortgage rates remain around 16-19%, and the key rate is 14.5% after the eighth consecutive cut on April 24.
At first glance, this defies economic laws. High rates should kill demand, but demand is growing. The share of market (non-subsidized) mortgages rose to 157 billion rubles, accounting for 43.7% of total issuance. A year ago, that figure was around 14%.
The real insight: growth is happening not despite rates, but because of "gray" financing schemes that the Central Bank cannot control and banks prefer to ignore. Installment plans from developers, which are not officially considered loans, have reached about 1.5 trillion rubles ($20.3 billion). This is a time bomb ticking under the mortgage market.
Timeline and Context
April 2025. Market mortgages are virtually dead: issuance is about 25 billion rubles, a 14% share of total volume. Subsidized programs account for 80-85%. The key rate is 21%. Market mortgage rates are 21-23%.
Q1 2026. The Central Bank consistently cuts the key rate from 21% to 15% over several steps. Market mortgages begin to revive, but slowly. Quarterly issuance is 1 trillion rubles.
April 24, 2026. The Central Bank cuts the key rate to 14.5% — the eighth consecutive cut. Market mortgage rates follow, dropping to 16-19%.
April 2026. Issuance volume reaches 359 billion rubles (+9% vs March). Market mortgages: 157 billion rubles (43.7% of the market). Subsidized mortgages: 202 billion rubles (56.3%). The average rate on loans issued in April remained at 18.5%.
May 7, 2026. DomClick (Sber) publishes data: market mortgages grew 4x year-on-year to 99 billion rubles.
May 27, 2026. The Central Bank publishes final data: the mortgage portfolio grew 0.4% month-on-month, reaching 24.2 trillion rubles.
Who Wins and Who Loses
The obvious winners: developers. Despite high rates, they are holding or even raising housing prices. The reason is that construction costs are rising with inflation. But demand is not falling because some deals go through installment plans that are invisible in the Central Bank's official statistics. Actual sales volumes are 15-20% higher than reflected in mortgage statistics.
The less obvious winner: banks that issue "gray" installment plans through affiliated structures. Formally, these are not loans, so they avoid the Central Bank's macroprudential limits and reserve requirements. In reality, they are lending to high-risk borrowers disguised as "partner programs" with developers.
The losers: borrowers who take such installment plans. Their debt burden is not reflected in their credit history. When the time comes to pay both the mortgage and the installment plan simultaneously, many will be unable to handle the double load. Default rates on such schemes, according to unofficial data, already reach 8-10%.
The biggest loser: the Central Bank and financial stability. The 1.5 trillion rubles in installment plans represent a "hidden" loan portfolio that is unregulated and uncontrolled. If the macroeconomic situation worsens or unemployment rises, this bubble could burst, creating a domino effect across the entire banking system.
What the Media Isn't Saying
The first and most dangerous insight missing from nearly all publications: the 43.7% share of market mortgages is a statistical illusion.
Why? Because part of the "market" mortgages are actually subsidized, just formally processed through other channels. Developers and banks have devised schemes where the borrower gets a "partner discount" from the developer of 5-7% of the apartment's price, and the bank issues a loan at the market rate. Formally, it's a market mortgage. In reality, the borrower pays an effective rate 3-4 percentage points below the market rate thanks to the developer's subsidy. The developer factors this subsidy into the apartment price, increasing it by the same 5-7%.
According to insider estimates, up to 30% of deals classified as "market mortgages" go through such schemes. That means the real share of purely market (without hidden subsidies) lending is not 43.7%, but around 30%.
The second point that goes unmentioned: the "one family, one subsidized mortgage" rule, introduced in February 2026, has not only reduced family mortgage issuance but also increased the number of fake divorces.
According to notaries (non-public statistics), the number of divorce proceedings in Q1 2026 rose 25% compared to Q1 2025. The main reason is the desire to preserve the ability to obtain a subsidized mortgage for a new spouse. This is a "social artifact" that no analyst factors into risk models.
The third insight everyone misses: mortgage growth is occurring alongside tighter Central Bank requirements for income verification.
Since April 2026, banks must rely solely on official data from the Federal Tax Service and the Social Fund. This has cut off a significant portion of borrowers with "gray" salaries. Yet issuance is still growing. The only explanation is rising incomes in the official sector. But Rosstat data does not confirm this: real disposable income grew only 1.2% in Q1. That means people are taking out mortgages at the expense of other spending — cutting consumption, postponing renovations, saving on leisure.
Forecast: Next 30 Days and 90 Days
30 days: In May-June, mortgage issuance will continue to grow, but at a more moderate pace of 5-7% compared to April. The main driver is Sber's rate cut to 15.5% on market mortgages since late April. The key risk is the Central Bank meeting on June 18. If the rate stays at 14.5% (baseline scenario), the market will continue to recover. If the Central Bank surprises and cuts to 14%, the secondary market will get a strong boost, and issuance could exceed 400 billion rubles in June.
90 days: By the end of Q3, the situation could change radically. The most likely scenario (55%): the Central Bank continues its accommodative policy, with the rate at 13-13.5% by September. Mortgage rates drop to 14-16%. Issuance reaches 450-500 billion rubles per month. The mortgage portfolio exceeds 25 trillion rubles.
Alternative scenario (45%): inflation (currently 5.48% annually) does not slow but accelerates due to budget spending and ruble weakness. The Central Bank is forced to pause the rate-cutting cycle, possibly even raising rates to 15.5-16%. The mortgage market cools sharply: issuance falls to 280-300 billion rubles per month by September.
A particular risk is the 1.5 trillion ruble "installment bubble." The Central Bank is already concerned about this practice, and regulatory restrictions may come in the second half of the year. If the Central Bank forces banks to treat installment plans as loans with corresponding reserves, it would create a capital hole of 100-150 billion rubles and trigger a sharp contraction in mortgage supply.
Editorial Forecast
Based on current data, we believe that in the next 24–72 hours, Sberbank shares (as the main beneficiary of mortgage growth) will trade sideways in the range of 295 - 305 rubles per ordinary share. Key support is 292 rubles (early May low), resistance is 310 rubles (level not breached since May 25). Confidence level: medium, as the positive from mortgage data is already partially priced in after Sber's report on May 19. The main risk is an escalation in geopolitics or a sharp drop in oil prices below $90 per barrel Brent, which would drag down the entire Russian stock market, including Sber. This is the editorial board's opinion, not an investment recommendation.
— Editorial Team
