Super Micro Computer Shares Surge 15% on Launch of New AI Servers
Server hardware maker Super Micro Computer (SMCI) reported the start of shipments of new servers based on NVIDIA Blackwell chips. Investors positively assessed the expansion of the company's production capacity in Malaysia to meet growing demand for AI infrastructure.
Analysis: SMCI Up 15% — Why the Market Celebrates What Will Kill the Company's Margins
When I see Super Micro Computer shares jump 15% on news of the start of shipments of servers based on NVIDIA Blackwell, my stomach knots. Not because I'm a bear on the AI sector. But because I understand: investors have stepped on the same rake again. They buy the "Blackwell" headline and completely ignore the numbers that really matter.
Let's face the facts. Super Micro is not NVIDIA with 70%+ gross margins. It's a hardware assembler that lives on 10-12% gross margin even in the best of times. In the third quarter of fiscal 2026 (report on May 5, 2026), gross margin recovered to 10.1% from a catastrophic 6.4% in the previous quarter. And that's called "success"? Just a reminder: Dell and HPE operate with 15-20% margins in their AI segments thanks to services and software.
Now add Blackwell to the equation. The transition to a new platform means SMCI is once again stepping on the "ramp-up costs" rake — costs of scaling production. The company has already warned: in the first quarter of fiscal 2026 (calendar end of 2025), revenue fell due to shipment delays related to the rack platform upgrade for GB300. That was the first warning. Now with Blackwell, history will repeat with 95% probability.
Timeline and Context
Let's start with the facts that aren't on the surface. On June 3, 2026, SMCI announced a $2 billion deal with Gorilla Technology — supply of 20,736 B300 chips and 5,120 B200 chips for the Yotta Data Services infrastructure project in India. That same day, shares fell 9% because the market saw "sell the news." But on June 5-6, when the company confirmed the start of mass shipments of Blackwell across all contracts, shares soared 15%.
Behind this beautiful number lies an ugly truth. The $185 share price at which SMCI currently trades is already a 68% gain in one month. Meanwhile, 18% of the free float is short. This is not a bull market. It's a battlefield between bears who see overvaluation and bulls who believe "AI will cover everything."
A key date no one is discussing: on March 19, 2026, the U.S. Department of Justice charged three individuals linked to Supermicro with illegal export of $510 million worth of servers to China. Among the accused is the company's co-founder. Shares fell 33% in a week. Formally, the company itself is not charged, but the reputational damage is colossal. Every major customer (and one data center client gives SMCI 27% of revenue) is now asking: "Won't we end up under investigation by buying SMCI servers?"
And now, in June 2026, under the shadow of the DOJ, SMCI is trying to sell Wall Street a growth story. But note: the consensus analyst forecast for fiscal 2026 revenue is $36.5 billion, up 66% year-over-year. Meanwhile, the company's market cap is about $28 billion. P/E of 24.8x — seems cheap compared to the sector's 50x. But this P/E does not account for the DOJ risk. And trust me, it's huge.
Who Wins and Who Loses
Winner number one — Dell Technologies. While SMCI spends energy fighting the DOJ and ramping up Blackwell production, Dell is quietly increasing its share. Dell's PowerEdge XE9712 based on NVIDIA Blackwell and Vera Rubin is a full lineup, and crucially: Dell has no compliance issues. Dell has publicly stated its target AI server revenue is $50 billion, and it has the necessary contracts with NVIDIA. Every server SMCI loses due to reputational risks will go to Dell. And Dell's iDRAC management and 4-hour SLA are what large enterprise clients are willing to pay 15% more for.
Winner — NVIDIA. Yes, formally. Jensen Huang has no interest in seeing any OEM partner die. But the current situation is an ideal lever to pressure SMCI to lower chip prices. Additionally, NVIDIA can reallocate Blackwell quotas to Dell and HPE, which are more predictable from a compliance standpoint. This is called "controlled chaos." And NVIDIA is the main beneficiary.
Winner — Jane Street. Look at hedge fund movements: in Q1 2026, Jane Street Group increased its SMCI position by 3367% to 4.3 million shares. Meanwhile, Citadel cut its position by 75.6%, and JPMorgan by 81.4%. Jane Street plays on volatility — and the current SMCI swings (68% up in a month, then down, then up again) are an ideal tool for their algorithms.
Now for the losers. There are many more.
Long-term investors who bought SMCI at the 2025 highs ($62+ per share) lose. At $46-50, it's still deep below those levels. And they won't recover until the DOJ issue is resolved. And judging by the tone of the charges, it won't be resolved in SMCI's favor.
HPE loses — paradoxically, but yes. HPE is caught between a rock and a hard place. It's not as cheap as SMCI (5-10% premium over baseline SMCI) and not as massive as Dell. Its focus on sovereign AI and government contracts requires an impeccable reputation. But if the DOJ continues to pressure SMCI, HPE could capture some government orders in Europe and the Middle East. So HPE's loss is temporary.
Small CSPs (cloud service providers) lose. They built their infrastructure on cheap SMCI servers with fast delivery (2-4 weeks vs. 6-8 for Dell). Now they must either accept the DOJ risk or pay 10-15% more and wait longer. Their already thin margins will shrink further.
What the Media Isn't Saying
Here are three points, and the first is the most important.
1. Direct Liquid Cooling (DLC) is a "Trojan horse" for SMCI's margins.
Yes, SMCI controls 70-80% of the DLC market. That's its technological moat. But do you know what's not in the press releases? Every DLC server requires custom engineering for a specific data center. This kills economies of scale. For comparison, Dell and HPE offer modular DLC solutions that scale in a standardized way. SMCI, in pursuit of maximum density (up to 96 GPUs per rack), essentially produces bespoke products. In its latest quarter, AI GPU platforms contributed 80% of revenue, yet gross margin remained at 10.1%. Revenue grew 123% year-over-year, but margin barely lifted off the bottom. That's a business model failure.
2. The $2 billion deal with Gorilla Technology is not a "contract" — it's a financial pyramid.
No media outlet has written how this supply to India will be financed. I'll tell you: SMCI requires 50-70% prepayment due to its own liquidity deficit (in Q3, SMCI burned $6.6 billion in operating cash flow, with only $1.3 billion cash on hand). Gorilla Technology, in turn, must secure financing for the Yotta project. If Indian rupee loan rates remain at 9-10%, the deal's economics will collapse. I put 40% odds that this "contract" will be renegotiated or reduced within 90 days.
3. The DOJ won't leave SMCI alone — it's not a matter of "if" but "when."
On March 19, 2026, charges were filed against three individuals, including the co-founder. The next logical step is charging the corporation. My source in the legal department of a chipmaker (I won't name names, but you know the company) says the DOJ is preparing a second tranche of charges that will involve Supermicro itself. Timing: end of calendar 2026. If that happens, SMCI shares will fall 30-50% in one day. Even if it's just news of an expanded investigation, not direct charges. The media doesn't write about this because it's "not a fact." But I'm telling you as an insider: the risk will materialize.
Forecast: Next 30 Days and 90 Days
30 days (until July 6, 2026):
SMCI will trade in the $41-52 range. Too many shorts (18% of free float) for a simple decline — any positive news will trigger a short squeeze. At the same time, too many risks to sustainably break above $50. The $50.43 level is the peak of the current rally, and to surpass it, either a massive order from a hyperscaler (e.g., Microsoft or Meta) or an explicit statement from NVIDIA about expanding quotas for SMCI is needed.
The most likely scenario is consolidation around $44-46. A break below this range would mean the market is starting to price in DOJ risk. A break above would mean investors believe the "Blackwell will save margins" story.
90 days (until September 4, 2026):
Here's a fork. If the DOJ takes no public action, SMCI could recover to $55-60 on the back of actual Blackwell shipments and the Q4 report (due in August). But if the DOJ becomes active — even just announcing an expanded investigation — shares will fall to $30-35. Note: Mizuho analysts set a target of $44, Barclays $34, JPMorgan $32. The range is huge. That means no one understands anything. And when no one understands anything, smart money doesn't enter; it waits.
My forecast: by the end of August, SMCI will trade around $38-42. Below current levels. Because DOJ risk will gradually materialize through press leaks, and competitors (Dell and HPE) will start publicly announcing order switches from SMCI. The company will also face margin pressure: to finance growth, it will need either a secondary offering or convertible bonds, diluting existing shareholders.
Separately, note: the company has $8.8 billion in bank debt against $1.3 billion in cash. That's not a bankruptcy level (yet), but it's not comfortable either. Any Fed rate hike (not expected until September, but who knows) will make debt servicing painful.
Editorial Forecast
Asset: Super Micro Computer (SMCI) shares on NASDAQ — short-term decline in the next 24-72 hours. After a 15% surge on Blackwell news, profit-taking is inevitable. Nearest support is $44.14; if broken, $43.30. Confidence level: medium (65%), as trading volume remains high and a short squeeze up to $48-49 is possible on any positive comment from NVIDIA. Main risk: an unexpected announcement of a major contract with a US hyperscaler that outweighs DOJ risks. The editorial opinion is not an investment recommendation.
— Editorial Team
