G20 Trade Grows 5.3% in Q1 Despite Crisis
OECD reports growth in exports and imports among G20 countries driven by the high-tech sector, with the US increasing its foreign trade figures by 8-9%.
G20 Trade Growth of 5.3%: An Illusion of Resilience Masking Fragility
The OECD reported a 5.3% increase in G20 trade turnover in the first quarter, with the US posting 8-9% growth. Media outlets quickly dubbed this a "sign of resilience in the global economy." But anyone working with real trade, not aggregated statistics, sees that this growth is an artificial spike driven by panic and disruptions, not fundamental demand. This is a story not of strength, but of fragility disguised by the "inventory effect."
[The Core]: What's Really Happening
The key point missed by headlines: the peak of growth occurred in January-February, before the Persian Gulf war fully blocked the Strait of Hormuz. March figures, not yet fully incorporated into the OECD report, already show a sharp slowdown.
But the real deception lies elsewhere. The OECD report contains a specific passage about the "high-tech sector." What's that about? It's that China and the US increased semiconductor and electronics exports by 12-15%. But this is not consumption growth. It's double counting, where the same chip travels from Taiwan to China, is assembled into a phone, goes to the US as a "finished product," and then gets disassembled for parts in Texas.
Timeline and Context
The OECD quarterly data shows growth amid "trade policy easing" (apparently temporary tariff relief from Trump), but simultaneously notes that "forecasts are complicated by geopolitics." OECD internal analysis as early as March factored in a 10% decline scenario if the conflict continued. Yet the public report came out with an optimistic focus on past data.
The IMF warned last week of a possible 1.5% drop in global GDP if the Hormuz blockade lasts until autumn. And the current growth simply reflects companies stockpiling in January-February in anticipation of the blockade.
Winners and Losers
Winners:
- Logistics giants (FedEx, UPS, DSV). Volume growth plus capacity shortages equals super profits. Freight rates on transpacific routes have surged 400% in the last 6 weeks (from $1,500 to $7,500 per 40-foot container).
- Mexico and Vietnam. As in previous trade wars, they act as a "Chinese hub" for re-exports. Their trade with the US grew 18-22% in Q1.
- Shareholders of shipping companies (Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd). Their quarterly profits are breaking records as they skim three layers off shippers' panic.
Losers:
- Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Europe. They can't afford to pay $7,500 per container or wait 60 days instead of 30. Many have simply halted exports to Asia.
- Consumers in developed countries. Artificially filled warehouses are now being cleared. But new shipments come at exorbitant prices. This means retail prices will rise 10-15% by the end of Q2.
What the Media Isn't Saying
Insight #1 — "The Bullwhip Effect Will Be Followed by a Collapse."
The classic bullwhip effect in supply chains: first panic triggers over-ordering (January-February), then demand sharply drops (April-May) because warehouses are full and end consumers aren't buying. The OECD Q1 report only captured the first phase. April data, due in July, will show an 8-10% decline. We already see this in high-frequency indicators: port fees in Los Angeles have fallen 18% in the last 4 weeks.
Insight #2 — "The US 9% Growth Is Thanks to IKEA, Not Boeing."
A breakdown of the OECD report shows that US export growth came from three categories: "semiconductors," "pharmaceuticals" (strategic stockpiles), and "furniture" (IKEA stockpiling ahead of Trump's tariffs on timber). Traditional US export pillars — Boeing (aviation, down due to strikes) and agricultural machinery — fell 5-7%. This is not a "trade miracle," but a one-off event.
Forecast: Next 30 Days and 90 Days
30 days: The OECD data will be used by the Fed as an argument for a "strong economy" to justify rate hikes. But the real sector will start signaling problems. Logistics stocks (ZIM, Maersk) could correct 15-20% when weak April volume data emerges.
90 days: By the end of August, if the conflict isn't resolved, global trade will go deep into negative territory. The "double counting" in semiconductors will stop working as end demand for electronics collapses due to high inflation. We'll see a classic trade recession: a 5-7% decline in Q3. Beneficiaries will be countries with their own resource bases (Brazil, Australia) — they'll gain from high resource prices even if volumes fall.
Editorial Forecast
Asset: Shipping company Maersk stock (ticker MAERSK-B). Direction — downward correction within the next 72 hours. Prices have priced in a "permanent boom," while actual shipping volumes are already falling. Target decline: 8-12% from current highs, key support at DKK 11,500. Confidence level — medium (55%). Main risk: a sudden ceasefire in Iran unblocks Hormuz, sharply reducing freight rates and killing Maersk's margin, but increasing volumes — for stocks, this could be either positive or negative depending on what the market focuses on at the moment.
— Editorial Team
